The Study on Electricity Price Forecasting Method based on Time Series ARMAX Model and Chaotic Particle Swarm Optimization

Author(s):  
Li Caihong Sun Wenheng
2010 ◽  
Vol 40-41 ◽  
pp. 183-188
Author(s):  
Rui Qing Wang ◽  
Fu Xiong Wang ◽  
Wen Tian Ji

Under deregulated environment, accurate electricity price forecasting is a crucial issue concerned by all market participants. Experience shows that single forecasting model is very difficult to improve the forecasting accuracy due to the complicated factors affecting electricity prices. In this paper, a particle swarm optimization based GM(1,1) method on short-term electricity price forecasting with predicted error improvement is proposed, in which the moving average method is used to process the raw data, the particle swarm optimization based GM(1,1) model is used to the processed series, and the time series analysis is used to further improve the predicted errors. The numerical example based on the historical data of the PJM market shows that the method can reflect the characteristics of electricity price better and the forecasting accuracy can be improved virtually compared with the conventional GM(1,1) model. The forecasted prices accurate enough to be used by electricity market participants to prepare their bidding strategies.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (20) ◽  
pp. 6514
Author(s):  
Min Yi ◽  
Wei Xie ◽  
Li Mo

In the electricity market environment, the market clearing price has strong volatility, periodicity and randomness, which makes it more difficult to select the input features of artificial neural network forecasting. Although the traditional back propagation (BP) neural network has been applied early in electricity price forecasting, it has the problem of low forecasting accuracy. For this reason, this paper uses the maximum information coefficient and Pearson correlation analysis to determine the main factors affecting electricity price fluctuation as the input factors of the forecasting model. The improved particle swarm optimization algorithm, called simulated annealing particle swarm optimization (SAPSO), is used to optimize the BP neural network to establish the SAPSO-BP short-term electricity price forecasting model and the actual sample data are used to simulate and calculate. The results show that the SAPSO-BP price forecasting model has a high degree of fit and the average relative error and mean square error of the forecasting model are lower than those of the BP network model and PSO-BP model, as well as better than the PSO-BP model in terms of convergence speed and accuracy, which provides an effective method for improving the accuracy of short-term electricity price forecasting.


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