ARISAN EMAS PERSFEKTIF FIQH MUAMALAH (Studi di Jorong Koto Gadang Nagari Simawang Kecamatan Rambatan Kabupaten Tanah Datar)

This study examines the implementation of the gold gathering in Jorong Koto Gadang Nagari Simawang, Rambat District, Tanah Datar Regency in the Perspective of Fiqh Muamalah. The problem in this research is how to implement the Arisan Emas in Jorong Koto Gadang Nagari Simawang, Rambat District, Tanah Datar Regency. What are the contracts used in the implementation of this Arisan and how is the view of muamalah fiqh on the implementation of the Gold Arisan in Jorong Koto Gadang Nagari Simawang, Rambat District, Tanah Datar Regency.The research method that I use in this research is field research. While the nature of the research is qualitative descriptive, qualitative descriptive research is describing the phenomena that occur in the field as they are according to reality. As the main data source, namely people involved in the implementation of the gold gathering in Simawang Village, and as a source of data obtained include primary and secondary data, primary data sources consisting of the head of the gold arisan and 9 participants of the gold gathering while secondary data sources were obtained through a number of books, journals, articles and other reading sources to strengthen primary data. Data collection was carried out using interview and observation techniques.Based on the results of the research that the authors have done, it can be concluded that the implementation of Asrisanemas in Jorong Koto Gadang Nagari Simawang, Rambat District, Tanah Datar Regency is to use the ijarah contract and accounts payable agreement, the payment system is through the membership fees of the gold arisan, fixing the gold price according to the current gold price and giving for the chairman of the Arisan only voluntarily. In the view of fiqh muamalah, the implementation of the gold gathering that took place in Jorong Koto Gadang Nagari Simawang, Rambat Subdistrict, Tanah Datar Regency, Arisan like this is unacceptable because there is no certainty and is detrimental to one of the parties with a shortage and overpayment which is commonly referred to as usury and giving money. To the head of the arisan is a voluntary fee, the voluntary money given to the head of the arisan is considered a wage because the provisions of the muamalah for each job in muamalah are required to have a wage.

The Determinants of Gold Price in Malaysia

The purpose of this paper is to look into the linkage between inflation rate, exchange rate, stock market return with price of gold. The sample collected for this empirical study covered 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. The secondary data was collected annually and total 30 observations are taken for each variable. Multiple Linear Regression model is developed to find out the linkage between variables chosen with gold prices. The independent variables included Inflation rate (Consumer Price Index), exchange rate (Malaysia to USD), stock market return (FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index) and dependent variable is Price of Gold. Besides that, several tests are used including Unit Root Test (Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test), Jarque-Bera Normality Test, Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test, Heteroscedasticity-White Test, Ramsey Regression Equation Specification Error (RESET) Test and Granger Causality Test. The time series analysis used as the methodology by using Eview 11 to proceed all the test. The result showed that inflation rate and exchange rate have strong positive link to gold price while stock market return does not have significant relationship with gold price. In summary, this research can provide reference for other investors.

GOLD PRICESFORECASTING USING TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL METHOD

Governments, organizations, and citizens have taken an interest in gold price fluctuations. Gold price forecasting that is accurate may effectively capture price shift tendencies and reduce the effects of gold market volatility. However, due to the multi-factor and nonlinear nature of the gold market. The triple exponential smoothing strategy is used in this study to predict the rise in a value over time since it can replicate trends and seasonal patterns. according to the gold price swings pattern and seasonal components at the same time To calculate system accuracy, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error is employed (MAPE). With alpha 0.15 and beta 0.85 as parameter values, the triple exponential smoothing (TES) approach achieves an accuracy rate of 86.93 percent and a MAPE of 12.49 percent in this study.

High Order Spatial Weighting Matrix Using Google Trends

This research aimed to form a high-order spatial weighting matrix based on various simulations. The simulation was the determination of the center of the country based on the capital and google trend data. The keywords that have been used in the Google Trends data are "gold price" and "deposit". These keywords have been translated into 6 official languages of the United Nation including Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Russian, and Spanish. Each language has been represented by 1 country. The determination of the country center that has been used based on the capital as well as keywords and time influenced the form of the high-order spatial weighting matrix. In simulations 1, 2, 4, and 5 the highest spatial order formed was 6. It was different with simulations 3, 6, and 7 the highest spatial order formed was 5. Keywords: language, simulation, gold price, deposit.

Do Exchange Rates Fluctuations Influence Gold Price in G7 Countries? New Insights from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test

In the recent era, gold is considered an essential investment source, a source of hedging inflation, and a medium of monetary exchange. The gold and exchange rate nexus become prominent after events like sovereign debt crisis, subprime mortgage crisis, low-interest rate problem, and global financial market solvency. These events attract the attention of researchers and academician for investigating the dynamics of the relationship between gold and exchange rates, and the majority of the studies discusses the linear dynamics, but the non-linear dynamics are ignored. Therefore, the current research investigates the non-linear dynamics of gold price and exchange rate relationship in G7 countries using the new technique named the nonparametric causality approach. This study uses monthly data from the years 1995(January)-2017 (March). The empirical results show that exchange rate return causes gold prices in four out of G7, especially at the low tails. This study also gives valuable insights for monetary policymakers, gold exporter’s international portfolio managers, and hedge fund managers.