Prediction of Probabilistic Design Models for Uncertainty Propagation

Uncertainty Propagation Techniques in Probabilistic Design of Multilevel Systems

10th AIAA/ISSMO Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization Conference ◽

10.2514/6.2004-4470 ◽

2004 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Byeng Dong Youn ◽

Kyung K. Choi ◽

Michael Kokkolaras ◽

P. Y. Papalambros ◽

Z. Mourelatos ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Uncertainty Propagation ◽

Probabilistic Design ◽

Multilevel Systems

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FUNCTIONAL STRUCTURE OF OPERATING PROCESSES AT MARINE LOADING COMPLEX OF MODERN EXPORT COAL TERMINALS

VESTNIK OF ASTRAKHAN STATE TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY SERIES MARINE ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGIES ◽

10.24143/2073-1574-2019-2-118-126 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 118-126

Author(s):

Nikolay Vladimirovich Kuptsov ◽

Alexander Lvovich Kuznetsov

Keyword(s):

Simulation Models ◽

Throughput Capacity ◽

Functional Structure ◽

High Tech ◽

Probabilistic Design ◽

Design Models ◽

Cargo Handling ◽

Additional Costs ◽

Marine Terminals ◽

Coefficients Identification

The article focuses on the problem of identifying the functional structure of the processes occurring on marine cargo handling area with modern export coal terminals using machines of continuous transporting (conveyor mechanization). Methods of data analysis and data mining allow to form a complete picture of the cycle of ship-loading operations and downtime, which are taken into account within the “ignorance” coefficients in the Russian regulatory framework of technological design of seaports. Today, designing high-tech terminals using “ignorance” ratios is found as archaism, because it reduces the calculated results of the throughput capacity of coal export terminals by 50-60%. The main purpose of the terminal functioning is the principle of economic efficiency: it is necessary to understand in detail the technological processes and to perform ship loading operations without exceeding the lay time to avoid additional costs for demurrage. For marine terminals it is important to identify, deeply understand and manage the factors hidden behind these coefficients. Identification of the functional structure of the marine side processes allows to influence on them, more efficiently operate the terminal and reduce the range of uncertainties, increasing the throughput of the marine side using the principles of the technical limit. Considered detailing the processes can be used as a toolkit for creating more accurate methods of calculating the throughput capacity of the maritime side, as well as being an informative description of simulation models. The use of detailed parametric probabilistic design models will allow achieving transparency in the relationships “a design engineer - a client” and generating results in terms of the most probable amounts of throughput and the potential for increasing freight turnover.

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