The methodology for assessing interest-rate policy rules: some comments

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 275-285
Author(s):  
Martin Watts
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Rules ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Macroeconomic Impacts ◽  
Conceptual Foundations ◽  
The Impact

This paper is critical of the conceptual foundations and methodology adopted by Smithin (2020) in his exploration of the impact of different interest-rate policy rules on inflation. His modelling framework is too narrow to adequately discriminate between different interest-rate rules in terms of their broader macroeconomic impacts.

The methodology for assessing interest-rate policy rules: a reply

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 286-292
Author(s):  
John Smithin
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Zero Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Conceptual Foundations ◽  
The Impact

This note is a brief reply to Watts (2021), who has been critical of the conceptual foundations and methodology in a discussion of the impact of different interest rate policy rules on inflation in Smithin (2020). The reply concludes that the case for a ‘zero real policy rate of interest’ (ZRPR), rather than a ‘zero interest rate policy’ (ZIRP), emerges unscathed.

A NOTE ON NONLINEAR FISCAL REGIMES AND INTEREST RATE POLICY

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 832-844 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Piergallini
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Fisher Equation ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Interest Rate Rules ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Active Interest ◽  
Fiscal Regimes ◽  
Rate Policy

Much empirical evidence finds that governments react to fiscal imbalances in a nonlinear way, through an increasing marginal response of primary surpluses to changes in debt. This paper shows that nonlinear fiscal regimes alter equilibria under active and passive monetary–fiscal policies. The Fisher equation combined with nonlinear fiscal policies leads to multiple steady states. Under passive interest rate rules, even if the steady state in which fiscal policy is active is locally saddlepath stable, there exist infinite equilibrium paths originating in the neighborhood of that steady state that converge into a high-debt trap. Under active interest rate rules, even if the steady state at which fiscal policy is active is locally unstable, there exists a saddle connection with the high-debt equilibrium along which inflation is uniquely determined.

scholarly journals Die Auswirkungen Der Zinspolitik Im Bankensystem Und Bei Immobilienentwicklungen / The Impact Of Interest Rate Policy, On The Banking System And On Real Estate Development

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-25
Author(s):  
Pamela Priess
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Liquidity Premium ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The research purpose is to find out if signs of a real estate bubble are shown at the austrian real estate market right now. Lending rates are composed of different factors: the base rate is the price that the customer is willing to pay. The risk premium is given to compensate the lenders risk of full or partial failure of repayment. The inflation adjustment takes into account the impairment of money over the term of a loan. The liquidity premium increases with extension of the term of the loan. The European Central Bank influences the interest rate policy by varying the interest for money saved there by the banks. At the moment there are used negative interest rates, i.e. penalty interest. The methodology used was that recently the ECB lowered the interest rates which might cause real estate bubbles and, subsequently, banks and economic crises may follow, if interest rates were to be increased again sooner or later. Therefor the author studied the amount of sales and the connection to the interest rates and the interest rate policy of the banks right now. Summarizing it can be seen that in Kittsee, an Austrian area with a lot of real estate sales, as an example, 565 real estate properties were sold in the years 2005 to 2015, the median prices increased in relation to the buyers residence in Austria or non- Austrians at about 375% to 490%, this might indicate signs of change on the market.

scholarly journals The Effects of Monetary Policy on House Prices in Spain: the role of the economic and monetary union membership in the housing bubble prior to the great recession

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Tibor Pál
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Housing Boom ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Impact

Aim: This paper aims to discover the evolution of monetary transmission in Spain by focusing on the short-term interest rate, credit aggregates and house prices through different stages of economic development and European integration between 1975 and 2008. In addition, the analysis devotes special attention to the interval of the last housing boom, in order to reveal the importance of the interest rate policy of the ECB.Design / Research methods: The study applies a tri-variate autoregressive model assigned to three overlapping periods outlined by regime shifts in the Spanish economy. The estimation output determines the strength and persistency of the links between interest rates, credit aggregates and house prices. Consequently, the results of the econometric analysis provide proper base for comparison in order to identify the dominating channels of monetary transmissions through a prolonged period.Conclusions / findings: It is found that the transmission mechanism in Spain essentially altered over time since 1975. At the beginning of the full analysed interval the role of the credit channel was dominant, then its importance gradually diminished. After the EMU accession the traditional interest rate channel became the leading factor with an intensified and more persistent effect on house prices.Originality / value of the article: While there are numerous researches aimed at estimating the impact of monetary policy on the real economy, empirical studies focusing exclusively on the link between interest rate policy and house prices in Spain are still rare. As the present paper concentrates solely on the Spanish characteristics through extended interval, the study provides country-specific inferences.Implications of the research: Understanding the mechanism of the monetary policy effects on the housing sector is an essential aspect of designing policy interventions aimed at keeping house price development in check.Limitations of the research: Despite the significant results of the empirical analysis, the excessively dynamic increase in the property prices suggests that the factor of irrational expectations also played important role in the latest Spanish housing bubble.Key words: Monetary policy, VAR, ECB, Housing boom, Monetary transmission mechanismJEL: E52, E58.

Analysis of the Bank of Russia information policy

2017 ◽  
pp. 88-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Drobyshevsky ◽  
P. Trunin ◽  
A. Bozhechkova ◽  
E. Gorunov ◽  
D. Petrova
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Nonparametric Tests ◽  
Information Policy ◽  
Var Models ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
News Reports ◽  
Internet Users ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Exchange Markets

The article investigates the Bank of Russia information policy using a new approach to measuring information effects on Russian data, including the analysis of the tonality of news reports, as well as internet users’ queries on Google. The efficiency of regulator’s information signals is studied using EGARCH-, VAR- models, as well as nonparametric tests. The authors conclude that the regulator communicates effectively in terms of the predictability of interest rate policy, the degree to which information signals affect the money and foreign exchange markets.

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