The Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Market in China

This paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 on the stock ambiguity, risks, liquidity, and stock prices in China stock market, before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 during the Chinese Spring Festival holidays in 2020. We measure stock ambiguity using the intraday trading data. The outbreak of COVID-19 has a significant impact on the average stock ambiguity, risk, and illiquidity in China and induces structural break in the market average ambiguity. However, the equity premium and liquidity premium change little during the same period. The market average stock ambiguity and risks decrease, and stock liquidity improves to pre-pandemic levels as the pandemic is under control in China. The market average stock ambiguity and risks in China increase again when the confirmed new cases in the U.S. surge in the second half of 2020. We also find a “flight-to-liquidity” phenomenon, and the equally-weighted (value-weighted) 20-trading-day liquidity premium declined significantly to about –4.42% (–6.48%) during the fourth quarter of 2020.

Liquidity risk and stock returns: empirical evidence from industrial products and services sector in Bursa Malaysia

This study investigates the impact of liquidity risk on stock returns of 149 firms in the industrial products and services sectors of Bursa Malaysia from January 2000 to December 2018 with a monthly frequency dataset. This study employed the two-stage standard procedures in asset pricing to estimate the significant effect of liquidity risk on industrial products and services stock returns. The results show that the investors require liquidity premium for stocks whose illiquidity co-moves with market illiquidity and market return while shifting their investment to liquid stocks when the market becomes illiquid, thus positive premium for stocks whose return is higher during the illiquid market. It suggests that two liquidity risks, namely commonality in liquidity and the covariances between stock illiquidity and market returns, and aggregate liquidity risk explain the cross-sectional returns variations across stocks in the industrial products and services sector, thus partly support the LCAPM model. We provide evidence on the important role of liquidity risks on the cross-sectional industrial products and services stock returns in Bursa Malaysia in the LCAPM framework. The findings of this study may be useful for investment decision-making and portfolio allocation strategy under the liquid and illiquid securities conditions. For policymakers, understanding the impact of liquidity risks on stock returns for the industrial products and services sectors may help enhance market liquidity for economic growth. Therefore, our findings contribute to the practical and policy implications.

Does a Clarke-Groves type tax prevent free riding when implementing Eurobonds?

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a Clarke-Groves Tax (CGT) type as a remedy to the criticism that the implementation of Eurobonds has raised regarding the risk of undermining fiscal discipline. In this model, a government minimizes its sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio in a given period and decides whether to join a common sovereign debt club. In doing so, it exposes itself to a positive or negative tax burden while benefiting from the liquidity premium involved in creating a secure asset. The authors found that the introduction of this tax may prevent free riding behaviours if Eurobonds were to be implemented. To illustrate this, the authors provide some numerical simulations for the Eurozone. Design/methodology/approach In the model presented, a government which optimizes a social utility function decides whether to join the common debt club. Findings The adoption of the proposed tax could prevent free-riding behaviours and, therefore, encourages participation by those countries with lower debt levels that would have not otherwise taken part in this common debt mechanism. Under certain circumstances, we can expect the utility of all members of this club to improve. The bias in the distribution of gains might be mitigated by regulating the tax rule determining the magnitude of payment/reward. The proportion of the liquidity premium, arising from the implementation of a sovereign safe asset, has a decisive impact on the degree of the governments’ utility enhancement. Research limitations/implications The adoption of a CGT would require Eurobonds club members to reach an agreement on “the” theoretical model for determining the sovereign debt yield. One of the limitations of this model is considering the debt-to-GDP ratio as the sole determinant of public debt yields. Moreover, the authors assumed the relationship between the debt-to-GDP ratio and funding costs to be identical for all countries. Any progress in the implementation of the proposed transfer scheme would require a more realistic and in-depth analysis. Practical implications A new fiscal rule based on compensating countries with lower public debt levels could be a way to mitigate free-riding problems if a Eurobond mechanism is to be established. Originality/value This fiscal rule has not been proposed or analysed before in a context such as that considered by this paper.

Transmission of Monetary Policy with Heterogeneity in Household Portfolios

This paper assesses the importance of heterogeneity in household portfolios for the transmission of monetary policy in a New Keynesian business cycle model with uninsurable income risk and assets with different liquidity. In this environment, monetary transmission works through investment, but redistribution lowers the elasticity of investment via two channels: (i) heterogeneity in marginal propensities to invest, and (ii) time variation in the liquidity premium. Monetary contractions redistribute to wealthy households who have high propensities to invest and a low marginal value of liquidity, thereby stabilizing investment. I provide empirical evidence for countercyclical liquidity premia and heterogeneity in household portfolio responses. (JEL E12, E32, E52, G11, G51)

Conditional stock liquidity premium: is Warsaw stock exchange different?

Purpose This paper aims to empirically indicate the factors influencing stock liquidity premium (i.e. the relationship between liquidity and stock returns) in one of the leading European emerging markets, namely, the Polish one. Design/methodology/approach Various firms’ characteristics and market states are analysed as potentially affecting liquidity premiums in the Polish stock market. Stock returns are regressed on liquidity measures and panel models are used. Liquidity premium has been estimated in various subsamples. Findings The findings vividly contradict the common sense that liquidity premium raises during the periods of stress. Liquidity premium does not increase during bear markets, as investors lengthen the investment horizon when market liquidity decreases. Liquidity premium varies with the firm’s size, book-to-market value and stock risk, but these patterns seem to vanish during a bear market. Originality/value This is one of the first empirical papers considering conditional stock liquidity premium in an emerging market. Using a unique methodological design it is presented that liquidity premium in emerging markets behaves differently than in developed markets.