Abstract
PSC fiscal system serves as a framework to determine the sharing of petroleum revenues between stakeholders. Understanding its behavior is essential, given the nature and duration of upstream projects. The paper rationalizes fiscal systems that can promote a balanced, progressive, and robust revenue-sharing mechanism. The impact and efficiency of three typical fiscal regimes are assessed by observing how they react to different scenarios and outcomes, which could be either better or worse than the initial expectation.
The three typical fiscal regimes are fixed-rate, production sliding scale sharing, and profitability-based sharing. The early days’ fixed rate sharing system is rigid and does not effectively address the different scales of upstream project investments and the associated uncertainties. The production sliding scale sharing is a partially progressive system that addresses production level variation but does not respond to the variation of other value drivers such as actual cost, price volatility, and project schedule. The profitability based fiscal term represents a progressive win-win system that is more robust, self-regulating, and balances stakeholders’ value objectives. Profitability-based sharing also promotes subsequent field developments. New investment lowers the profitability ratio, which in turn increases contractor profit share percentage. This mechanism results in higher incremental value to the contractor when developing the next field. Compared to the fixed-rate and production sliding scale based sharing, the profitability based sharing could provide a fiscal balance system that is self-regulating, progressive, and more robust. It fits nicely with the oil and gas industry known for the inherent risks and wide range of uncertainties throughout the life of the project.
The profitability-based system could be further enhanced to encapsulate the multiple claw-back provisions by switching from the traditional stair-step sharing to a steeper linear sharing with the appropriate ceiling, floor, and triggering points. The linear representation of profitability-based sharing could also complement the various available PSC management control provisions to mitigate the potential cases of opportunistic gold-plating. The sensitive feature of linear sharing could help deter such manipulation. (334)