scholarly journals Separating radiative forcing by aerosol–cloud interactions and fast cloud adjustments in the ECHAM-HAMMOZ aerosol–climate model using the method of partial radiative perturbations

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Mülmenstädt ◽  
Edward Gryspeerdt ◽  
Marc Salzmann ◽  
Po-Lun Ma ◽  
Sudhakar Dipu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Water ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Water Path ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Warm Cloud ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions ◽  
Averaged Model

Abstract. Using the method of offline radiative transfer modelling within the partial radiative perturbations (PRP) approach, the effective radiative forcing (ERF) by aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) in the ECHAM-HAMMOZ aerosol climate model is decomposed into a radiative forcing by anthropogenic cloud droplet number change and adjustments of the liquid water path and cloud fraction. The simulated radiative forcing and liquid water path adjustment are of approximately equal magnitude at −0.52 W m−2 and −0.53 W m−2, respectively, while the cloud fraction adjustment is somewhat weaker at −0.31 W m−2 (constituting 38 %, 39 %, and 23 % of the total ERFaci, respectively); geographically, all three ERF components in the simulation peak over China, the subtropical eastern ocean boundaries, the northern Atlantic and Pacific Ocean, Europe, and eastern North America (in order of prominence). Spatial correlations indicate that the temporal-mean liquid water path adjustment is proportional to the temporal-mean radiative forcing, while the relationship between cloud fraction adjustment and radiative forcing is less direct. While the estimate of warm-cloud ACI is relatively insensitive to the treatment of ice and mixed-phase cloud overlying warm cloud, there are indications that more restrictive treatments of ice in the column result in a low bias in the estimated magnitude of the liquid water path adjustment and a high bias in the estimated magnitude of the droplet number forcing. Since the present work is the first PRP decomposition of the aerosol ERF into RFaci and fast cloud adjustments, idealized experiments are conducted to provide evidence that the PRP results are accurate. The experiments show that using low-frequency (daily or monthly) time-averaged model output of the cloud property fields underestimates the ERF, but 3-hourly mean output is sufficiently frequent.

scholarly journals Separating radiative forcing by aerosol–cloud interactions and rapid cloud adjustments in the ECHAM–HAMMOZ aerosol–climate model using the method of partial radiative perturbations

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (24) ◽  
pp. 15415-15429 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Mülmenstädt ◽  
Edward Gryspeerdt ◽  
Marc Salzmann ◽  
Po-Lun Ma ◽  
Sudhakar Dipu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Water ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Water Path ◽  
Warm Cloud ◽  
Effective Radiative Forcing ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract. Using the method of offline radiative transfer modeling within the partial radiative perturbation (PRP) approach, the effective radiative forcing by aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) in the ECHAM–HAMMOZ aerosol climate model is decomposed into a radiative forcing by anthropogenic cloud droplet number change and adjustments of the liquid water path and cloud fraction. The simulated radiative forcing by anthropogenic cloud droplet number change and liquid water path adjustment are of approximately equal magnitude at −0.52 and −0.53 W m−2, respectively, while the cloud-fraction adjustment is somewhat weaker at −0.31 W m−2 (constituting 38 %, 39 %, and 23 % of the total ERFaci, respectively); geographically, all three ERFaci components in the simulation peak over China, the subtropical eastern ocean boundaries, the northern Atlantic and Pacific oceans, Europe, and eastern North America (in order of prominence). Spatial correlations indicate that the temporal-mean liquid water path adjustment is proportional to the temporal-mean radiative forcing, while the relationship between cloud-fraction adjustment and radiative forcing is less direct. While the estimate of warm-cloud ERFaci is relatively insensitive to the treatment of ice and mixed-phase cloud overlying warm cloud, there are indications that more restrictive treatments of ice in the column result in a low bias in the estimated magnitude of the liquid water path adjustment and a high bias in the estimated magnitude of the droplet number forcing. Since the present work is the first PRP decomposition of the aerosol effective radiative forcing into radiative forcing and rapid cloud adjustments, idealized experiments are conducted to provide evidence that the PRP results are accurate. The experiments show that using low-frequency (daily or monthly) time-averaged model output of the cloud property fields underestimates the ERF, but 3-hourly mean output is sufficiently frequent.

scholarly journals Understanding Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation Interactions Using Local Meteorology and Cloud State Constraints

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alyson Douglas ◽  
Tristan L'Ecuyer
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Water ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Water Path ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Warm Cloud ◽  
Cloud Radiative Effect ◽  
Local Meteorology ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions ◽  
Sizable Number

Abstract. While many studies have tried to quantify the sign and the magnitude of the warm cloud response to aerosol loading, both remain uncertain owing to the multitude of factors that modulate microphysical and thermodynamic processes within the cloud. Constraining aerosol-cloud interactions using the local meteorology and cloud liquid water may offer a way to account for covarying influences, potentially increasing our confidence in observational estimates of warm cloud indirect effects. Four years of collocated satellite observations from the NASA A-Train constellation, combined with reanalaysis from MERRA-2, are used to partition warm clouds into regimes based on stability, the free atmospheric relative humidity, and liquid water path. Organizing the sizable number of satellite observations into regimes is shown to minimize the covariance between the environment or liquid water path and the indirect effect. Controlling for local meteorology and cloud state mitigates artificial signals and reveals substantial variance in both the sign and magnitude of the cloud radiative response, including regions where clouds become systematically darker with increased aerosol concentration in dry, unstable environments. The reverse Twomey effect, as it has been called, is evident even under the most stringent of constraints, confirming it is not an artificial signal or an isolated phenomenon. These results suggest it is not meaningful to report a single global sensitivity of cloud radiative effect to aerosol. To the contrary, we find the sensitivity can range from −.46 to .11 W m−2ln(AI) regionally.

scholarly journals Untangling causality in midlatitude aerosol–cloud adjustments

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 4085-4103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel T. McCoy ◽  
Paul Field ◽  
Hamish Gordon ◽  
Gregory S. Elsaesser ◽  
Daniel P. Grosvenor
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Water ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Water Path ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Causal Pathways

Abstract. Aerosol–cloud interactions represent the leading uncertainty in our ability to infer climate sensitivity from the observational record. The forcing from changes in cloud albedo driven by increases in cloud droplet number (Nd) (the first indirect effect) is confidently negative and has narrowed its probable range in the last decade, but the sign and strength of forcing associated with changes in cloud macrophysics in response to aerosol (aerosol–cloud adjustments) remain uncertain. This uncertainty reflects our inability to accurately quantify variability not associated with a causal link flowing from the cloud microphysical state to the cloud macrophysical state. Once variability associated with meteorology has been removed, covariance between the liquid water path (LWP) averaged across cloudy and clear regions (here characterizing the macrophysical state) and Nd (characterizing the microphysical) is the sum of two causal pathways linking Nd to LWP: Nd altering LWP (adjustments) and precipitation scavenging aerosol and thus depleting Nd. Only the former term is relevant to constraining adjustments, but disentangling these terms in observations is challenging. We hypothesize that the diversity of constraints on aerosol–cloud adjustments in the literature may be partly due to not explicitly characterizing covariance flowing from cloud to aerosol and aerosol to cloud. Here, we restrict our analysis to the regime of extratropical clouds outside of low-pressure centers associated with cyclonic activity. Observations from MAC-LWP (Multisensor Advanced Climatology of Liquid Water Path) and MODIS are compared to simulations in the Met Office Unified Model (UM) GA7.1 (the atmosphere model of HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1). The meteorological predictors of LWP are found to be similar between the model and observations. There is also agreement with previous literature on cloud-controlling factors finding that increasing stability, moisture, and sensible heat flux enhance LWP, while increasing subsidence and sea surface temperature decrease it. A simulation where cloud microphysics are insensitive to changes in Nd is used to characterize covariance between Nd and LWP that is induced by factors other than aerosol–cloud adjustments. By removing variability associated with meteorology and scavenging, we infer the sensitivity of LWP to changes in Nd. Application of this technique to UM GA7.1 simulations reproduces the true model adjustment strength. Observational constraints developed using simulated covariability not induced by adjustments and observed covariability between Nd and LWP predict a 25 %–30 % overestimate by the UM GA7.1 in LWP change and a 30 %–35 % overestimate in associated radiative forcing.

scholarly journals Model intercomparison of indirect aerosol effects

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1579-1617 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. E. Penner ◽  
J. Quaas ◽  
T. Storelvmo ◽  
T. Takemura ◽  
O. Boucher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Water ◽  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Aerosol Indirect Effect ◽  
Water Path ◽  
Series Of Experiments ◽  
Aerosol Effects ◽  
Indirect Forcing

Abstract. Modeled differences in predicted effects are increasingly used to help quantify the uncertainty of these effects. Here, we examine modeled differences in the aerosol indirect effect in a series of experiments that help to quantify how and why model-predicted aerosol indirect forcing varies between models. The experiments start with an experiment in which aerosol concentrations, the parameterization of droplet concentrations and the autoconversion scheme are all specified and end with an experiment that examines the predicted aerosol indirect forcing when only aerosol sources are specified. Although there are large differences in the predicted liquid water path among the models, the predicted aerosol indirect effect for the first experiment is rather similar. Changes to the autoconversion scheme can lead to large changes in the liquid water path of the models and to the response of the liquid water path to changes in aerosols. Nevertheless, these changes do not necessarily lead to large changes in the radiative forcing. The parameterization of cloud fraction within models is not sensitive to the aerosol concentration, and, therefore, the response of the modeled cloud fraction within the present models appears to be smaller than that which would be associated with model ''noise''. The prediction of aerosol concentrations, given a fixed set of sources, leads to some of the largest differences in the predicted aerosol indirect radiative forcing among the models. Thus, this aspect of modeling requires significant improvement in order to improve the prediction of aerosol indirect effects.

scholarly journals Model intercomparison of indirect aerosol effects

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (11) ◽  
pp. 3391-3405 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. E. Penner ◽  
J. Quaas ◽  
T. Storelvmo ◽  
T. Takemura ◽  
O. Boucher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Water ◽  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Liquid Water Content ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Water Path ◽  
Cloud Forcing ◽  
Indirect Forcing

Abstract. Modeled differences in predicted effects are increasingly used to help quantify the uncertainty of these effects. Here, we examine modeled differences in the aerosol indirect effect in a series of experiments that help to quantify how and why model-predicted aerosol indirect forcing varies between models. The experiments start with an experiment in which aerosol concentrations, the parameterization of droplet concentrations and the autoconversion scheme are all specified and end with an experiment that examines the predicted aerosol indirect forcing when only aerosol sources are specified. Although there are large differences in the predicted liquid water path among the models, the predicted aerosol first indirect effect for the first experiment is rather similar, about −0.6 Wm−2 to −0.7 Wm−2. Changes to the autoconversion scheme can lead to large changes in the liquid water path of the models and to the response of the liquid water path to changes in aerosols. Adding an autoconversion scheme that depends on the droplet concentration caused a larger (negative) change in net outgoing shortwave radiation compared to the 1st indirect effect, and the increase varied from only 22% to more than a factor of three. The change in net shortwave forcing in the models due to varying the autoconversion scheme depends on the liquid water content of the clouds as well as their predicted droplet concentrations, and both increases and decreases in the net shortwave forcing can occur when autoconversion schemes are changed. The parameterization of cloud fraction within models is not sensitive to the aerosol concentration, and, therefore, the response of the modeled cloud fraction within the present models appears to be smaller than that which would be associated with model "noise". The prediction of aerosol concentrations, given a fixed set of sources, leads to some of the largest differences in the predicted aerosol indirect radiative forcing among the models, with values of cloud forcing ranging from −0.3 Wm−2 to −1.4 Wm−2. Thus, this aspect of modeling requires significant improvement in order to improve the prediction of aerosol indirect effects.

scholarly journals Unveiling aerosol–cloud interactions – Part 2: Minimising the effects of aerosol swelling and wet scavenging in ECHAM6-HAM2 for comparison to satellite data

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (21) ◽  
pp. 13165-13185 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Neubauer ◽  
Matthew W. Christensen ◽  
Caroline A. Poulsen ◽  
Ulrike Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Water ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Water Path ◽  
Cloud Albedo ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Aerosol Processing ◽  
Wet Scavenging ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract. Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are uncertain and the estimates of the ACI effective radiative forcing (ERFaci) magnitude show a large variability. Within the Aerosol_cci project the susceptibility of cloud properties to changes in aerosol properties is derived from the high-resolution AATSR (Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer) data set using the Cloud–Aerosol Pairing Algorithm (CAPA) (as described in our companion paper) and compared to susceptibilities from the global aerosol climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 and MODIS–CERES (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer – Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) data. For ECHAM6-HAM2 the dry aerosol is analysed to mimic the effect of CAPA. Furthermore the analysis is done for different environmental regimes. The aerosol–liquid water path relationship in ECHAM6-HAM2 is systematically stronger than in AATSR–CAPA data and cannot be explained by an overestimation of autoconversion when using diagnostic precipitation but rather by aerosol swelling in regions where humidity is high and clouds are present. When aerosol water is removed from the analysis in ECHAM6-HAM2 the strength of the susceptibilities of liquid water path, cloud droplet number concentration and cloud albedo as well as ERFaci agree much better with those of AATSR–CAPA or MODIS–CERES. When comparing satellite-derived to model-derived susceptibilities, this study finds it more appropriate to use dry aerosol in the computation of model susceptibilities. We further find that the statistical relationships inferred from different satellite sensors (AATSR–CAPA vs. MODIS–CERES) as well as from ECHAM6-HAM2 are not always of the same sign for the tested environmental conditions. In particular the susceptibility of the liquid water path is negative in non-raining scenes for MODIS–CERES but positive for AATSR–CAPA and ECHAM6-HAM2. Feedback processes like cloud-top entrainment that are missing or not well represented in the model are therefore not well constrained by satellite observations. In addition to aerosol swelling, wet scavenging and aerosol processing have an impact on liquid water path, cloud albedo and cloud droplet number susceptibilities. Aerosol processing leads to negative liquid water path susceptibilities to changes in aerosol index (AI) in ECHAM6-HAM2, likely due to aerosol-size changes by aerosol processing. Our results indicate that for statistical analysis of aerosol–cloud interactions the unwanted effects of aerosol swelling, wet scavenging and aerosol processing need to be minimised when computing susceptibilities of cloud variables to changes in aerosol.

scholarly journals Deconvolution of boundary layer depth and aerosol constraints on cloud water path in subtropical stratocumulus decks

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 3609-3621
Author(s):  
Anna Possner ◽  
Ryan Eastman ◽  
Frida Bender ◽  
Franziska Glassmeier
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Process Modelling ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Marine Stratocumulus ◽  
Water Path ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions ◽  
Relative Change

Abstract. The liquid water path (LWP) adjustment due to aerosol–cloud interactions in marine stratocumulus remains a considerable source of uncertainty for climate sensitivity estimates. An unequivocal attribution of LWP adjustments to changes in aerosol concentration from climatology remains difficult due to the considerable covariance between meteorological conditions alongside changes in aerosol concentrations. We utilise the susceptibility framework to quantify the potential change in LWP adjustment with boundary layer (BL) depth in subtropical marine stratocumulus. We show that the LWP susceptibility, i.e. the relative change in LWP scaled by the relative change in cloud droplet number concentration, in marine BLs triples in magnitude from −0.1 to −0.31 as the BL deepens from 300 to 1200 m and deeper. We further find deep BLs to be underrepresented in pollution tracks, process modelling, and in situ studies of aerosol–cloud interactions in marine stratocumulus. Susceptibility estimates based on these approaches are skewed towards shallow BLs of moderate LWP susceptibility. Therefore, extrapolating LWP susceptibility estimates from shallow BLs to the entire cloud climatology may underestimate the true LWP adjustment within subtropical stratocumulus and thus overestimate the effective aerosol radiative forcing in this region. Meanwhile, LWP susceptibility estimates in deep BLs remain poorly constrained. While susceptibility estimates in shallow BLs are found to be consistent with process modelling studies, they overestimate pollution track estimates.

scholarly journals Detection and attribution of aerosol–cloud interactions in large-domain large-eddy simulations with the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic model

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 5657-5678 ◽  
Author(s):  
Montserrat Costa-Surós ◽  
Odran Sourdeval ◽  
Claudia Acquistapace ◽  
Holger Baars ◽  
Cintia Carbajal Henken ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Water ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Reference Conditions ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Large Domain ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Large Eddy ◽  
Ground Based Lidar ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract. Clouds and aerosols contribute the largest uncertainty to current estimates and interpretations of the Earth’s changing energy budget. Here we use a new-generation large-domain large-eddy model, ICON-LEM (ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic Large Eddy Model), to simulate the response of clouds to realistic anthropogenic perturbations in aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The novelty compared to previous studies is that (i) the LEM is run in weather prediction mode and with fully interactive land surface over a large domain and (ii) a large range of data from various sources are used for the detection and attribution. The aerosol perturbation was chosen as peak-aerosol conditions over Europe in 1985, with more than fivefold more sulfate than in 2013. Observational data from various satellite and ground-based remote sensing instruments are used, aiming at the detection and attribution of this response. The simulation was run for a selected day (2 May 2013) in which a large variety of cloud regimes was present over the selected domain of central Europe. It is first demonstrated that the aerosol fields used in the model are consistent with corresponding satellite aerosol optical depth retrievals for both 1985 (perturbed) and 2013 (reference) conditions. In comparison to retrievals from ground-based lidar for 2013, CCN profiles for the reference conditions were consistent with the observations, while the ones for the 1985 conditions were not. Similarly, the detection and attribution process was successful for droplet number concentrations: the ones simulated for the 2013 conditions were consistent with satellite as well as new ground-based lidar retrievals, while the ones for the 1985 conditions were outside the observational range. For other cloud quantities, including cloud fraction, liquid water path, cloud base altitude and cloud lifetime, the aerosol response was small compared to their natural variability. Also, large uncertainties in satellite and ground-based observations make the detection and attribution difficult for these quantities. An exception to this is the fact that at a large liquid water path value (LWP > 200 g m−2), the control simulation matches the observations, while the perturbed one shows an LWP which is too large. The model simulations allowed for quantifying the radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions, as well as the adjustments to this forcing. The latter were small compared to the variability and showed overall a small positive radiative effect. The overall effective radiative forcing (ERF) due to aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) in the simulation was dominated thus by the Twomey effect and yielded for this day, region and aerosol perturbation −2.6 W m−2. Using general circulation models to scale this to a global-mean present-day vs. pre-industrial ERFaci yields a global ERFaci of −0.8 W m−2.

scholarly journals The impact of horizontal heterogeneities, cloud fraction, and liquid water path on warm cloud effective radii from CERES-like Aqua MODIS retrievals

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 9997-10003 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Painemal ◽  
P. Minnis ◽  
S. Sun-Mack
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Water ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Effective Radius ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Water Path ◽  
Warm Cloud ◽  
Southeast Pacific ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of horizontal heterogeneities, liquid water path (LWP from AMSR-E), and cloud fraction (CF) on MODIS cloud effective radius (re), retrieved from the 2.1 μm (re2.1) and 3.8 μm (re3.8) channels, is investigated for warm clouds over the southeast Pacific. Values of re retrieved using the CERES algorithms are averaged at the CERES footprint resolution (∼20 km), while heterogeneities (Hσ) are calculated as the ratio between the standard deviation and mean 0.64 μm reflectance. The value of re2.1 strongly depends on CF, with magnitudes up to 5 μm larger than those for overcast scenes, whereas re3.8 remains insensitive to CF. For cloudy scenes, both re2.1 and re3.8 increase with Hσ for any given AMSR-E LWP, but re2.1 changes more than for re3.8. Additionally, re3.8–re2.1 differences are positive (<1 μm) for homogeneous scenes (Hσ < 0.2) and LWP > 45 gm−2, and negative (up to −4 μm) for larger Hσ. While re3.8–re2.1 differences in homogeneous scenes are qualitatively consistent with in situ microphysical observations over the region of study, negative differences – particularly evinced in mean regional maps – are more likely to reflect the dominant bias associated with cloud heterogeneities rather than information about the cloud vertical structure. The consequences for MODIS LWP are also discussed.

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