Quantifying Albedo Susceptibility Biases in Shallow Clouds

The evaluation of radiative forcing associated with aerosol-cloud interactions remains a significant source of uncertainty in future climate projections. The problem is confounded by the fact that aerosol particles influence clouds locally, and that averaging to larger spatial and/or temporal scales carries biases that depend on the heterogeneity and spatial correlation of the interacting fields and the non-linearity of the responses. Mimicking commonly applied satellite data analyses for calculation of albedo susceptibility So, we quantify So aggregation biases using an ensemble of 127 large eddy simulations of marine stratocumulus. We explore the cloud field properties that control this spatial aggregation bias, and quantify the bias for a large range of shallow stratocumulus cloud conditions manifesting a variety of morphologies and range of cloud fractions. We show that So spatial aggregation biases can be on the order of 100s of percent, depending on methodology. Key uncertainties emanate from the typically applied adiabatic drop concentration Nd retrieval, the correlation between aerosol and cloud fields, and the extent to which averaging reduces the variance in cloud albedo Ac and Nd. Biases are more often positive than negative. So biases are highly correlated to biases in the adjustment. Temporal aggregation biases are shown to offset spatial averaging biases. Both spatial and temporal biases have significant implications for observationally based assessments of aerosol indirect effects and our inferences of underlying aerosol-cloud-radiation effects.

Turbulence in The Marine Boundary Layer and Air Motions Below Stratocumulus Clouds at the ARM Eastern North Atlantic Site

Marine stratocumulus clouds are intimately coupled to the turbulence in the boundary layer and drizzle is known to be ubiquitous within them. Six years of data collected at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)’s Eastern North Atlantic site are utilized to characterize turbulence in the marine boundary layer and air motions below stratocumulus clouds. Profiles of variance of vertical velocity binned by wind direction (wdir) yielded that the boundary layer measurements are affected by the island when the wdir is between 90° and 310° (measured clockwise from North where air is coming from). Data collected during the marine conditions (wdir<90 or wdir>310) showed that the variance of vertical velocity was higher during the winter months than during the summer months due to higher cloudiness, wind speeds, and surface fluxes. During marine conditions the variance of vertical velocity and cloud fraction exhibited a distinct diurnal cycle with higher values during the nighttime than during the daytime. Detailed analysis of 32 cases of drizzling marine stratocumulus clouds showed that for a similar amount of radiative cooling at the cloud top, within the sub-cloud layer 1) drizzle increasingly falls within downdrafts with increasing rain rates, 2) the strength of the downdrafts increases with increasing rain rates, and 3) the correlation between vertical air motion and rain rate is highest in the middle of the sub-cloud layer. The results presented herein have implications for climatological and model evaluation studies conducted at the ENA site, along with efforts of accurately representing drizzle-turbulence interactions in a range of atmospheric models.

Precipitation Susceptibility of Marine Stratocumulus with Variable Above and Below-Cloud Aerosol Concentrations over the Southeast Atlantic

Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions (ACIs) provide the greatest source of uncertainties in predicting changes in Earth’s energy budget due to poor representation of marine stratocumulus and the associated ACIs in climate models. Using in situ data from 329 cloud profiles across 24 research flights from the NASA ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) field campaign in September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018, it is shown that contact between above-cloud biomass-burning aerosols and marine stratocumulus over the southeast Atlantic Ocean was associated with precipitation suppression and a decrease in the precipitation susceptibility (So) to aerosols. The 173 “contact” profiles with aerosol concentration (Na) greater than 500 cm−3 within 100 m above cloud tops had 50 % lower precipitation rate (Rp) and 20 % lower So, on average, compared to 156 “separated” profiles with Na less than 500 cm−3 up to at least 100 m above cloud tops. Contact and separated profiles had statistically significant differences in droplet concentration (Nc) and effective radius (Re) (95 % confidence intervals from a two-sample t-test are reported). Contact profiles had 84 to 90 cm−3 higher Nc and 1.4 to 1.6 μm lower Re compared to separated profiles. In clean boundary layers (below-cloud Na less than 350 cm−3), contact profiles had 25 to 31 cm−3 higher Nc and 0.2 to 0.5 μm lower Re. In polluted boundary layers (below-cloud Na exceeding 350 cm−3), contact profiles had 98 to 108 cm−3 higher Nc and 1.6 to 1.8 μm lower Re. On the other hand, contact and separated profiles had statistically insignificant differences between the average liquid water path, cloud thickness, and meteorological parameters like surface temperature, lower tropospheric stability, and estimated inversion strength. These results suggest the changes in cloud properties were driven by ACIs rather than meteorological effects, and the existing relationships between Rp and Nc must be adjusted to account for the role of ACIs.

Can Marine Cloud Brightening Reduce Sea-Surface Temperatures to Moderate Extreme Hurricanes and Typhoons?

Elevated sea-surface temperatures are a necessary but not sufficient requirement for the formation of hurricanes and typhoons. This paper suggests a way to exploit this. Twomey [1] showed that cloud reflectivity depends on the size-distribution of cloud drops, with a large number of small drops reflecting more than a smaller number of larger ones. Mid-ocean air is cleaner than over land. Latham [2-4] suggested that reflectivity of marine stratocumulus clouds could be increased by releasing a submicron spray of filtered sea water into the bottom of the marine boundary layer. The salt residues left after evaporation would be mixed by turbulence through the full depth of the marine boundary layer and would be ideal cloud condensation nuclei. Those that reached a height where the air had a super-saturation above 100% by enough to get over the peak of the Köhler curve would produce an increased number of cloud drops and so trigger the Twomey effect. The increase in reflection from cloud tops back out to space would cool sea-surface water. We are not trying to increase cloud cover; we just want to make existing cloud tops whiter. The spray could be produced by wind-driven vessels cruising chosen ocean regions. The engineering design of sea-going hardware is well advanced. This paper suggests a way to calculate spray quantities and the number and cost of spray vessels to achieve a hurricane reduction to a more acceptable intensity. It is intended to show the shape of a possible calculation with credible if not exact assumptions. Anyone with better assumptions should be able to follow the process.

Evaluation of the CMIP6 marine subtropical stratocumulus cloud albedo and its controlling factors

The cloud albedo in the marine subtropical stratocumulus regions plays a key role in regulating the regional energy budget. Based on 12 years of monthly data from multiple satellite datasets, the long-term, monthly and seasonal cycle of averaged cloud albedo in five stratocumulus regions were investigated to intercompare the atmosphere-only simulations between phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP5 and AMIP6). Statistical results showed that the long-term regressed cloud albedos were underestimated in most AMIP6 models compared with the satellite-driven cloud albedos, and the AMIP6 models produced a similar spread as AMIP5 over all regions. The monthly averaged values and seasonal cycle of cloud albedo of AMIP6 ensemble mean showed a better correlation with the satellite-driven observations than that of the AMIP5 ensemble mean. However, the AMIP6 model still failed to reproduce the values and amplitude in some regions. By employing the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) data, this study estimated the relative contributions of different aerosols and meteorological factors on the long-term variation of marine stratocumulus cloud albedo under different cloud liquid water path (LWP) conditions. The multiple regression models can explain ∼ 65 % of the changes in the cloud albedo. Under the monthly mean LWP ≤ 65 g m−2, dust and black carbon dominantly contributed to the changes in the cloud albedo, while dust and sulfur dioxide aerosol contributed the most under the condition of 65 g m−2 < LWP ≤ 120 g m−2. These results suggest that the parameterization of cloud–aerosol interactions is crucial for accurately simulating the cloud albedo in climate models.