scholarly journals An efficient method to generate a perturbed parameter ensemble of a fully coupled AOGCM without flux-adjustment

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 841-892
Author(s):  
P. J. Irvine ◽  
D. J. Lunt ◽  
P. J. Valdes ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Parametric Uncertainty ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Entrainment Rate ◽  
Industrial Control ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Cmip3 Ensemble ◽  
Fully Coupled ◽  
Flux Adjustment

Abstract. We present a simple method to generate a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of a fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), HadCM3, without requiring flux-adjustment. The aim was to produce an ensemble that samples parametric uncertainty in some key variables and displays a similar range of behavior as seen in multi-model ensembles (MMEs). Six atmospheric parameters, a sea-ice parameter and an ocean parameter were jointly perturbed within a reasonable range to generate an initial group of 200 members. To screen out implausible ensemble members, 20 yr pre-industrial control simulations were run and members whose temperature response to the parameter perturbations was projected to be outside the range of 13.6 ± 2°C, i.e. near to the observed pre-industrial global mean, were discarded. 21 members, including the standard unperturbed model, were accepted, covering almost the entire span of the eight parameters, challenging the argument that without flux-adjustment parameter ranges would be unduly restricted. This ensemble was used in 3 experiments; a 800 yr pre-industrial, a 150 yr quadrupled CO2, and a 150 yr 1% CO2 rise per annum simulation. The behavior of the PPE for the pre-industrial control compared well to the CMIP3 ensemble for a number of surface and atmospheric column variables with the exception of a few members in the Tropics. However, we find that members of the PPE with low values of the entrainment rate coefficient show very large increases in upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapor concentrations in response to elevated CO2 and some show implausibly high climate sensitivities, and as such some of these members will be excluded from future experiments with this ensemble. The outcome of this study is a PPE of a fully-coupled AOGCM which samples parametric uncertainty with a range of behavior similar to the CMIP3 ensemble and a simple methodology which would be applicable to other GCMs.

scholarly journals An efficient method to generate a perturbed parameter ensemble of a fully coupled AOGCM without flux-adjustment

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 1447-1462 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Irvine ◽  
L. J. Gregoire ◽  
D. J. Lunt ◽  
P. J. Valdes
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Parametric Uncertainty ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Entrainment Rate ◽  
Industrial Control ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Fully Coupled ◽  
Flux Adjustment

Abstract. We present a simple method to generate a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of a fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), HadCM3, without requiring flux-adjustment. The aim was to produce an ensemble that samples parametric uncertainty in some key variables and gives a plausible representation of the climate. Six atmospheric parameters, a sea-ice parameter and an ocean parameter were jointly perturbed within a reasonable range to generate an initial group of 200 members. To screen out implausible ensemble members, 20 yr pre-industrial control simulations were run and members whose temperature responses to the parameter perturbations were projected to be outside the range of 13.6 ± 2 °C, i.e. near to the observed pre-industrial global mean, were discarded. Twenty-one members, including the standard unperturbed model, were accepted, covering almost the entire span of the eight parameters, challenging the argument that without flux-adjustment parameter ranges would be unduly restricted. This ensemble was used in 2 experiments; an 800 yr pre-industrial and a 150 yr quadrupled CO2 simulation. The behaviour of the PPE for the pre-industrial control compared well to ERA-40 reanalysis data and the CMIP3 ensemble for a number of surface and atmospheric column variables with the exception of a few members in the Tropics. However, we find that members of the PPE with low values of the entrainment rate coefficient show very large increases in upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapour concentrations in response to elevated CO2 and one member showed an implausible nonlinear climate response, and as such will be excluded from future experiments with this ensemble. The outcome of this study is a PPE of a fully-coupled AOGCM which samples parametric uncertainty and a simple methodology which would be applicable to other GCMs.

scholarly journals The South China Sea Throughflow Retrieved from Climatological Data*

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 753-767 ◽  
Author(s):  
Max Yaremchuk ◽  
Julian McCreary ◽  
Zuojun Yu ◽  
Ryo Furue
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
South China ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Luzon Strait ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
China Sea ◽  
Ocean General Circulation

Abstract The salinity distribution in the South China Sea (SCS) has a pronounced subsurface maximum from 150–220 m throughout the year. This feature can only be maintained by the existence of a mean flow through the SCS, consisting of a net inflow of salty North Pacific tropical water through the Luzon Strait and outflow through the Mindoro, Karimata, and Taiwan Straits. Using an inverse modeling approach, the authors show that the magnitude and space–time variations of the SCS thermohaline structure, particularly for the salinity maximum, allow a quantitative estimate of the SCS throughflow and its distribution among the three outflow straits. Results from the inversion are compared with available observations and output from a 50-yr simulation of a highly resolved ocean general circulation model. The annual-mean Luzon Strait transport is found to be 2.4 ± 0.6 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). This inflow is balanced by the outflows from the Karimata (0.3 ± 0.5 Sv), Mindoro (1.5 ± 0.4), and Taiwan (0.6 ± 0.5 Sv) Straits. Results of the inversion suggest that the Karimata transport tends to be overestimated in numerical models. The Mindoro Strait provides the only passage from the SCS deeper than 100 m, and half of the SCS throughflow (1.2 ± 0.3 Sv) exits the basin below 100 m in the Mindoro Strait, a result that is consistent with a climatological run of a 0.1° global ocean general circulation model.

Towards explaining the Nd paradox using reversible scavenging in an ocean general circulation model

2008 ◽  
Vol 274 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 448-461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Siddall ◽  
Samar Khatiwala ◽  
Tina van de Flierdt ◽  
Kevin Jones ◽  
Steven L. Goldstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation

scholarly journals A new mechanism for atmospheric mercury redox chemistry: Implications for the global mercury budget

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah M. Horowitz ◽  
Daniel J. Jacob ◽  
Yanxu Zhang ◽  
Theodore S. Dibble ◽  
Franz Slemr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Wet Deposition ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Redox Chemistry ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Mercury ◽  
Water Soluble ◽  
Second Stage

Abstract. Mercury (Hg) is emitted to the atmosphere mainly as volatile elemental Hg0. Oxidation to water-soluble HgII controls Hg deposition to ecosystems. Here we implement a new mechanism for atmospheric Hg0 / HgII redox chemistry in the GEOS-Chem global model and examine the implications for the global atmospheric Hg budget and deposition patterns. Our simulation includes a new coupling of GEOS-Chem to an ocean general circulation model (MITgcm), enabling a global 3-D representation of atmosphere-ocean Hg0 / HgII cycling. We find that atomic bromine (Br) of marine organobromine origin is the main atmospheric Hg0 oxidant, and that second-stage HgBr oxidation is mainly by the NO2 and HO2 radicals. The resulting lifetime of tropospheric Hg0 against oxidation is 2.7 months, shorter than in previous models. Fast HgII atmospheric reduction must occur in order to match the ~ 6-month lifetime of Hg against deposition implied by the observed atmospheric variability of total gaseous mercury (TGM ≡ Hg0 + HgII(g)). We implement this reduction in GEOS-Chem as photolysis of aqueous-phase HgII-organic complexes in aerosols and clouds, resulting in a TGM lifetime of 5.2 months against deposition and matching both mean observed TGM and its variability. Model sensitivity analysis shows that the interhemispheric gradient of TGM, previously used to infer a longer Hg lifetime against deposition, is misleading because southern hemisphere Hg mainly originates from oceanic emissions rather than transport from the northern hemisphere. The model reproduces the observed seasonal TGM variation at northern mid-latitudes (maximum in February, minimum in September) driven by chemistry and oceanic evasion, but does not reproduce the lack of seasonality observed at southern hemisphere marine sites. Aircraft observations in the lowermost stratosphere show a strong TGM-ozone relationship indicative of fast Hg0 oxidation, but we show that this relationship provides only a weak test of Hg chemistry because it is also influenced by mixing. The model reproduces observed Hg wet deposition fluxes over North America, Europe, and China, including the maximum over the US Gulf Coast driven by HgBr oxidation by NO2 and HO2. Low Hg wet deposition observed over rural China is attributed to fast HgII reduction in the presence of high organic aerosol concentrations. We find that 80 % of global HgII deposition takes place over the oceans, reflecting the marine origin of Br and low concentrations of marine organics for HgII reduction, and most of HO2 and NO2 for second-stage HgBr oxidation.

scholarly journals Global Modeling of Internal Tides Within an Eddying Ocean General Circulation Model

Oceanography ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 20-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Arbic ◽  
James Richman ◽  
Jay Shriver ◽  
Patrick Timko ◽  
Joseph Metzger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Internal Tides ◽  
Global Modeling ◽  
Ocean General Circulation
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