Supplementary material to "Planar Seismic Source Characterization Models Developed for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Istanbul"

Abstract. This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, Central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g. b-value, maximum magnitude, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully-documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

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Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-17-2365-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 17 (12) ◽

pp. 2365-2381 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Zeynep Gülerce ◽

Kadir Buğra Soyman ◽

Barış Güner ◽

Nuretdin Kaymakci

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Hazard Assessment ◽

Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Seismic Source ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽

Maximum Magnitude ◽

Source Characterization ◽

Seismicity Rates

Abstract. This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

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Determination of Local Site-Specific Spectra Using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Bitlis Province, Turkey

Earth Sciences Research Journal ◽

10.15446/esrj.v19n2.50101 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 19 (2) ◽

pp. 129-134 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Ercan Işık ◽

Mustafa Kutanis

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Hazard Analysis ◽

Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Seismic Source ◽

Response Spectra ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽

Source Characterization ◽

Site Specific ◽

Attenuation Relationships

In this study, site-specific earthquake spectra for Bitlis province in Lake Van Basin has been obtained. It is noteworthy that, in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, as a first stage data from geological studies and records from the instrumental period were compiled to make a seismic source characterization for the study region.The probabilistic seismic hazard curves for Bitlis were developed based on selected appropriate attenuation relationships, at rock sites, with a probability of exceedance 2%, 10% and 50% in 50 year periods. The obtained results were compared with the spectral responses proposed for seismic evaluation and retrofit of the building structure in Turkish Earthquake Code, Section 2. At the end of this study, it is apprehended that the Code proposed earthquake response spectra are not sufficient for the performance evaluation of the existing structures and the current estimations show that the potential seismic hazard research of the Turkey is underestimated in the code.Therefore, site- specific design spectra for the region should be developed, which reflect the characteristics of local sites. Determinación de espectros de sitio específico locales a través del análisis probabilístico de amenazas sísmicaspara la provincia de Bitlis, Turquía ResumenEn este estudio se obtuvieron espectros de terremoto de sitio específico para la cuenca del Lago de Van, en la provincia de Bitlis, al este de Turquía. La primera fase del trabajo consistió en una evaluación probabilística de riesgo sísmico donde se compilaron los estudios geológicos y registros del período instrumental para hacer una caracterización de fuente sísmica en la región de estudio. Las curvas de amenaza sísmica para la provincia de Bitlis se desarrollaron con base en las relaciones de atenuación apropiada seleccionadas en los sitios rocosos, con una probabilidad de exceso de 2 %, 10 % y 50 % durante 50 años. Los resultados obtenidos se compararon con las respuestas de espectro propuestas para la evaluación sísmica y modernización de estructuras contempladas en el Código de Terremoto de Turquía, en la sección 2. En la parte final de este trabajo se comprende que las respuestas de espectros de terremoto propuestos en el código no son suficientes para la evaluación de desempeño de las estructuras existentes y que las estimaciones actuales muestran que la investigación de amenazas potenciales sísmicas en Turquía está subestimada en el código. Por lo tanto, el diseño de espectros de sitio específico para la región se debe desarrollar, ya que permitiría conocer las singularidades locales.

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Fault-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the eastern Makran subduction and the Chaman transform fault, Pakistan: Emphasis on the source characterization of megathrust

Journal of Asian Earth Sciences ◽

10.1016/j.jseaes.2020.104604 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 205 ◽

pp. 104604

Author(s):

Syed Tanvir Shah ◽

A. Arda Özacar ◽

Zeynep Gülerce

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Hazard Assessment ◽

Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽

Transform Fault ◽

Source Characterization

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Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based on seismicity anomaly

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-20-743-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (3) ◽

pp. 743-753

Author(s):

Yu-Sheng Sun ◽

Hsien-Chi Li ◽

Ling-Yun Chang ◽

Zheng-Kai Ye ◽

Chien-Chih Chen

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Real Time ◽

Hazard Assessment ◽

Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Seismic Source ◽

Seismic Intensity ◽

Time Dependent ◽

Occurrence Rate ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Abstract. Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) was developed in this study in consideration of its practicability for daily life and the rate of seismic activity with time. Real-time PSHA follows the traditional PSHA framework, but the statistic occurrence rate is substituted by time-dependent seismic source probability. Over the last decade, the pattern informatics (PI) method has been developed as a time-dependent probability model of seismic source. We employed this method as a function of time-dependent seismic source probability, and we selected two major earthquakes in Taiwan as examples to explore real-time PSHA. These are the Meinong earthquake (ML 6.6) of 5 February 2016 and the Hualien earthquake (ML 6.2) of 6 February 2018. The seismic intensity maps produced by the real-time PSHA method facilitated the forecast of the maximum expected seismic intensity for the following 90 d. Compared with real ground motion data from the P-alert network, our seismic intensity forecasting maps showed considerable effectiveness. This result indicated that real-time PSHA is practicable and provides useful information that could be employed in the prevention of earthquake disasters.

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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Nepal using multiple seismic source models

Earth and Planetary Physics ◽

10.26464/epp2018030 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 2 (4) ◽

pp. 327-341 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Md Moklesur Rahman ◽

◽

Ling Bai ◽

◽

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Hazard Assessment ◽

Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Seismic Source ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽

Seismic Source Models ◽

Source Models

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Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based on seismicity anomaly

10.5194/nhess-2019-167 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Yu-Sheng Sun ◽

Hsien-Chi Li ◽

Ling-Yun Chang ◽

Zheng-Kai Ye ◽

Chien-Chih Chen

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Real Time ◽

Hazard Assessment ◽

Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Seismic Source ◽

Seismic Intensity ◽

Time Dependent ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽

The Real

Abstract. The real-time Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is developed for considering the practicability for daily life and the rate of seismic activity with time. The real-time PSHA follows the traditional PSHA framework, but the statistic occurrence rate is substituted by time-dependent seismic source probability. Pattern Informatics method (PI) is a proper time-dependent probability model of seismic source, which have been developed over a decade. Therefore, in this research, we chose the PI method as the function of time-dependent seismic source probability and selected two big earthquakes in Taiwan, the 2016/02/05, Meinong earthquake (ML 6.6) and the 2018/02/06, Hualien earthquake (ML 6.2), as examples for the real-time PSHA. The forecasting seismic intensity maps produced by the real-time PSHA present the maximum seismic intensity for the next 90 days. Compared to real ground motion data from the P-alert network, these forecasting seismic intensity maps have considerable effectiveness in forecasting. It indicates that the real-time PSHA is practicable and can provide a useful information for the prevention of earthquake disasters.

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Seismotectonic model and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Papua New Guinea

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering ◽

10.1007/s10518-020-00966-1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 18 (15) ◽

pp. 6571-6605 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Hadi Ghasemi ◽

Phil Cummins ◽

Graeme Weatherill ◽

Chris McKee ◽

Martyn Hazelwood ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Papua New Guinea ◽

Hazard Assessment ◽

Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Seismic Source ◽

New Guinea ◽

Building Code ◽

Tectonic Activity ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Abstract Papua New Guinea (PNG) lies in a belt of intense tectonic activity that experiences high levels of seismicity. Although this seismicity poses significant risks to society, the Building Code of PNG and its underpinning seismic loading requirements have not been revised since 1982. This study aims to partially address this gap by updating the seismic zoning map on which the earthquake loading component of the building code is based. We performed a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for PNG using the OpenQuake software developed by the Global Earthquake Model Foundation (Pagani et al. in Seism Res Lett 85(3):692–702, 2014). Among other enhancements, for the first time together with background sources, individual fault sources are implemented to represent active major and microplate boundaries in the region to better constrain the earthquake-rate and seismic-source models. The seismic-source model also models intraslab, Wadati–Benioff zone seismicity in a more realistic way using a continuous slab volume to constrain the finite ruptures of such events. The results suggest a high level of hazard in the coastal areas of the Huon Peninsula and the New Britain–Bougainville region, and a relatively low level of hazard in the southwestern part of mainland PNG. In comparison with the seismic zonation map in the current design standard, it can be noted that the spatial distribution of seismic hazard used for building design does not match the bedrock hazard distribution of this study. In particular, the high seismic hazard of the Huon Peninsula in the revised assessment is not captured in the current building code of PNG.

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