scholarly journals Corporate Investment and Portfolio Returns in Japan: A Markov Switching Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Chikashi Tsuji
Keyword(s):  
Markov Switching ◽  
Corporate Investment ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
The Other ◽  
Investment Portfolio ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Markov Switching Models ◽  
Switching Models ◽  
Equity Portfolios ◽  
Fama And French

This paper explores the profitability of four Japanese higher return equity portfolios and their linkages between corporate investment factor return, the so-called conservative-minus-aggressive (CMA), suggested by Fama and French (2015). Our empirical examinations derive the following evidence. First, in the four Japanese equity portfolios, the smallest and the highest operating profitability portfolio presents the highest return. Second, the smallest and the highest book-to-market (B/M) portfolio, the smallest and moderate investment portfolio, and the smallest and the second strongest momentum portfolio also record higher excess returns than the overall equity market in Japan. Moreover, our analyses via two-regime Markov switching models evidence that for all the four Japanese equity portfolios, there are clearly two regimes: one is positively related to CMA and the other is little or negatively related to CMA. Furthermore, our analyses also reveal that recently, all the four Japanese equity portfolios yield higher returns than CMA with showing weaker linkages between CMA.

scholarly journals Volatility Regime and Equity Portfolio Return: Evidence from Europe

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Chikashi Tsuji
Keyword(s):  
Markov Switching ◽  
Investment Portfolio ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Markov Switching Models ◽  
Switching Models ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Volatility Regimes ◽  
Equity Portfolios ◽  
Finance Theory ◽  
European Equity

This paper examines four European equity portfolios sorted by size, book-to-market (B/M) ratios, operating profitability, investment, and momentum by using Markov switching models with high and low volatility regimes. Our empirical analyses derive the following interesting findings. First, in four European equity portfolios, the smallest and the strongest momentum portfolio yields the highest return. In addition, the second smallest and the highest B/M portfolio, the second smallest and the highest operating profitability portfolio, and the second smallest and the second lowest investment portfolio also yield higher returns than the overall equity market in Europe. Further, our analyses using Markov switching models also reveal that for all the four European equity portfolios, the higher returns are obtained not in high volatility regimes but in low volatility regimes, and this evidence is against the assumption of risk-return trade off advocated in standard finance theory. Finally, our Markov switching analyses also suggest that for all the four European portfolios, staying probabilities in the same regimes are high and switching probabilities between two different regimes are generally low. In particular, staying probabilities in low volatility regimes are rather high, thus, all the four European equity portfolios yield high returns very stably by staying high return regimes.

scholarly journals A Markov-Switching VSTOXX Trading Algorithm for Enhancing EUR Stock Portfolio Performance

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 1030
Author(s):  
Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres ◽  
Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa ◽  
José Álvarez-García
Keyword(s):  
Markov Switching ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Portfolio Performance ◽  
Trading Costs ◽  
Weighting Method ◽  
Treasury Bills ◽  
Markov Switching Models ◽  
Switching Models ◽  
Asset Portfolio ◽  
Stock Portfolio

In the present paper, we test the benefit of using Markov-Switching models and volatility futures diversification in a Euro-based stock portfolio. With weekly data of the Eurostoxx 50 (ESTOXX50) stock index, we forecasted the smoothed regime-specific probabilities at T + 1 and used them as the weighting method of a diversified portfolio in ESTOXX50 and ESTOSS50 volatility index (VSTOXX) futures. With the estimated smoothed probabilities from 9 July 2009 to 29 September 2020, we simulated the performance of three theoretical investors who paid different trading costs and invested in ESTOXX50 during calm periods (low volatility regime) or VSTOXX futures and the three-month German treasury bills in distressed or highly distressed periods (high and extreme volatility regimes). Our results suggest that diversification benefits hold in the short-term, but if a given investor manages a two-asset portfolio with ESTOXX50 and our simulated portfolios, the stock portfolio’s performance is enhanced significantly, in the long term, with the presence of trading costs. These results are of use to practitioners for algorithmic and active trading applications in ESTOXX50 ETFs and VSTOXX futures.

scholarly journals Modeling and forecasting of rainfall reoccurrence changes using Markov Switching in Iran

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Majid Javari
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Planning ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
First Order ◽  
Markov Switching Models ◽  
Markov Transition Matrix ◽  
Switching Models ◽  
Markov Transition ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting

AbstractThis paper represents the recurrence (reoccurrence) changes in the rainfall series using Markov Switching models (MSM). The switching employs a dynamic pattern that allows a linear model to be combined with nonlinearity models a discrete structure. The result is the Markov Switching models (MSM) reoccurrence predicting technique. Markov Switching models (MSM) were employed to analyze rainfall reoccurrence with spatiotemporal regime probabilities. In this study, Markov Switching models (MSM) were used based on the simple exogenous probability frame by identifying a first-order Markov process for the regime probabilities. The Markov transition matrix and regime probabilities were used to analyze the rainfall reoccurrence in 167 synoptic and climatology stations. The analysis results show a low distribution from 0.0 to 0.2 (0–20%) per day spatially from selecting stations, probability mean of daily rainfall recurrence is 0.84, and a different distribution based on the second regime was found to be more remarkable to the rainfall variability. The rainfall reoccurrence in daily rainfall was estimated with relatively low variability and strong reoccurrence daily with ranged from 0.851 to 0.995 (85.1–99.5%) per day based on the spatial distribution. The variability analysis of rainfall in the intermediate and long variability and irregular variability patterns would be helpful for the rainfall variability for environmental planning.

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