scholarly journals Effect of eastward moving cloud clusters over northwest India and neighbourhood on the Indian summer monsoon

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-30
Author(s):  
ASOI LAL ◽  
R. S. SUNDER ◽  
S. P. JOSHI
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Rainfall Pattern ◽  
Peninsular India ◽  
Cloud Clusters ◽  
Northwestern Region ◽  
Northwest India

A number of studies have been made relating to the prediction of date of onset and also the activity of southwest monsoon over India. In this study an attempt has been made to link the behaviour of rainfall in northern and peninsular India to the satellite cloud clusters over the region of Afghanistan, Iran and northwest India. The monsoon rainfall over India commences in June. Hence variation of monsoon rainfall pattern with the movement of cloud clusters from northwest in pre-monsoon and monsoon months have been studied to elucidate the pattern of changes. The variability of monsoon performance largely depends on the number and movement of cloud clusters over northwestern region during pre-monsoon and monsoon months.

scholarly journals Tectonic and climatic drivers of Asian monsoon evolution

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
James R. Thomson ◽  
Philip B. Holden ◽  
Pallavi Anand ◽  
Neil R. Edwards ◽  
Cécile A. Porchier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
East Asian Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Great Debate ◽  
Climatic Drivers ◽  
Meridional Overturning

AbstractAsian Monsoon rainfall supports the livelihood of billions of people, yet the relative importance of different drivers remains an issue of great debate. Here, we present 30 million-year model-based reconstructions of Indian summer monsoon and South East Asian monsoon rainfall at millennial resolution. We show that precession is the dominant direct driver of orbital variability, although variability on obliquity timescales is driven through the ice sheets. Orographic development dominated the evolution of the South East Asian monsoon, but Indian summer monsoon evolution involved a complex mix of contributions from orography (39%), precession (25%), atmospheric CO2 (21%), ice-sheet state (5%) and ocean gateways (5%). Prior to 15 Ma, the Indian summer monsoon was broadly stable, albeit with substantial orbital variability. From 15 Ma to 5 Ma, strengthening was driven by a combination of orography and glaciation, while closure of the Panama gateway provided the prerequisite for the modern Indian summer monsoon state through a strengthened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Dependence of Indian summer monsoon rainfall forecast skill of CFSv2 on initial conditions and the role of bias in SST boundary forcing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stella Jes Varghese ◽  
Kavirajan Rajendran ◽  
Sajani Surendran ◽  
Arindam Chakraborty
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Central Pacific

<p>Indian summer monsoon seasonal reforecasts by CFSv2, initiated from January (4-month lead time, L4) through May (0-month lead time, L0) initial conditions (ICs), are analysed to investigate causes for the highest Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) forecast skill of CFSv2 with February (3-month lead time, L3) ICs. Although theory suggests forecast skill should degrade with increase in lead-time, CFSv2 shows highest skill with L3, due to its forecasting of ISMR excess of 1983 which other ICs failed to forecast. In contrast to observation, in CFSv2, ISMR extremes are largely decided by sea surface temperature (SST) variation over central Pacific (NINO3.4) associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where ISMR excess (deficit) is associated with La Niña (El Niño) or cooling (warming) over NINO3.4. In 1983, CFSv2 with L3 ICs forecasted strong La Niña during summer, which resulted in 1983 ISMR excess. In contrast, in observation, near normal SSTs prevailed over NINO3.4 and ISMR excess was due to variation of convection over equatorial Indian Ocean, which CFSv2 fails to capture with all ICs. CFSv2 reforecasts with late-April/early-May ICs are found to have highest deterministic ISMR forecast skill, if 1983 is excluded and Indian monsoon seasonal biases are also reduced. During the transitional ENSO in Boreal summer of 1983, faster and intense cooling of NINO3.4 SSTs in L3, could be due to larger dynamical drift with longer lead time of forecasting, compared to L0. Boreal summer ENSO forecast skill is also found to be lowest for L3 which gradually decreases from June to September. Rainfall occurrence with strong cold bias over NINO3.4, is because of the existence of stronger ocean-atmosphere coupling in CFSv2, but with a shift of the SST-rainfall relationship pattern to slightly colder SSTs than the observed. Our analysis suggests the need for a systematic approach to minimize bias in SST boundary forcing in CFSv2, to achieve improved ISMR forecasts.</p>

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