Comparing Suitable Habitat Models to Predict Rare and Endemic Plant Species Distributions: What are the Limits of the Niche of Cola lorougnonis (Malvaceae) in Cote d'Ivoire?

<p class="1Body"><em>Cola lorougnonis</em> is an endemic, rare, and treated species. It was recently recorded in Dekpa forest near Agbaou (a village of Divo region, Cote d’Ivoire). In the same forest, 20 other rare and endemic plant species were recorded. Accurate modeling of geographical distributions of these species is crucial to various applications in ecology and biodiversity conservation. The present study analyzed suitable habitat models<strong> </strong>for the 21 species. The main objective was to test geographical predictions for the focused species: <em>Cola lorougnonis</em>. We used Maxent modelling method for predicting potential suitable habitats combining environmental variables and species records. We evaluated Maxent predictions using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). For each species, the map of distribution was engineered using DIVA-GIS. We compared the suitable habitat areas among species. Principal Canonical Analysis allowed the ordination of species according to environmental variables. AUC values allowed to get 11 species with excellent distribution models, 8 species with good distribution models, and 2 species with predictive models considered as acceptable. <em>Cola lorougnonis</em> (AUC = 0.99) and <em>Drypetes singroboensis</em> (AUC = 0.96) have the same focused area: moist semi-deciduous forest in Cote d’Ivoire. They are more sensitive to changes in rainfall of both warmest and coldest seasons.<strong> </strong>The State of Côte d’Ivoire has to undertake monitoring, assessment and reporting of conservation status facilitation for all habitats where these species could be found within the territory. Additional studies focusing on the investigation areas and niche models onto future conditions of climate could be considered.</p>