Strategic Application of Topoclimatic Niche Models in Managing Forest Change

Forest management traditionally has been based on the expectation of a steady climate. In the face of a changing climate, management requires projections of changes in the distribution of the climatic niche of the major species and strategies for applying the projections. We prepared climatic habitat models incorporating heatload as a topographic predictor for the 14 upland tree species of southwestern Colorado, USA, an area that has already seen substantial climate impacts. Models were trained with over 800,000 points of known presence and absence. Using 11 climate scenarios for the decade around 2060, we classified and mapped change for each species. Projected impacts are extensive. Except for the low-elevation woodland species, persistent habitat is rare. Most habitat is lost or threatened and is poorly compensated by emergent habitat. Three species may be locally extirpated. Nevertheless, strategies are described that can use the projections to apply management where it is likely to be most effective, to facilitate or assist migration, to favor species likely to be suited in the future, and to identify potential climate refugia.

The significance of region-specific habitat models as revealed by habitat shifts of grey-faced buzzard in response to different agricultural schedules

To determine large scales habitat suitability for focal species, habitat models derived from one region are often extrapolated to others. However, extrapolation can be inappropriate due to regional variation of habitat selection. Accounting for the ecological mechanisms causing such variation is necessary to resolve this problem. We focused on grey-faced buzzards in agricultural landscapes of Japan, which show geographically different habitat selection. To determine whether this variation is caused by the difference in climatic conditions at geographical scales or the difference in agricultural practices at smaller regional scales, we surveyed distributions of buzzards and their major prey (frogs/orthopterans) in regions differing in rice-transplanting schedules within the same climatic zone. We found that buzzards preferred paddy-forest landscapes in the early transplanting regions, but grassland-forest landscapes in the late transplanting regions. Frogs were more abundant in the early transplanting regions due to flooded paddies, while the abundance of orthopterans did not differ. The regional variation in habitat selection of buzzards may be due to different prey availabilities caused by different agricultural schedules. We propose that habitat suitability assessments of organisms inhabiting agricultural landscapes should consider differences in production systems at regional scales and such regional partitioning is effective for accurate assessments.

O uso de modelagem de distribuição de espécies para restauração florestal: Uma revisão sistemática

O objetivo deste trabalho foi realizar uma revisão sistemática da produção científica do uso da modelagem de distribuição de espécies para restauração florestal. As buscas de artigos científicos nas bases de dados Scopus e Web of Science para os últimos 15 anos foram realizadas no mês de dezembro de 2020 utilizando os termos: “ecological modeling” OR “biodiversity modeling” OR “predictive models” OR “niche modeling" OR "habitat models" AND “species distribution” OR "geographic distribution" OR “potential distribution” AND “forest restoration” OR “restoration ecology”. Para as análises estatísticas e gráficos dos dados brutos foi utilizado o pacote Bibliometrix do software R. Os dados brutos foram refinados por meio da seleção dos estudos que atenderam aos seguintes critérios: (i) estudos publicados em revistas científicas com fator de impacto igual ou superior a 2,0; (ii) estudos em que o título ou resumo mencionasse as palavras restauração florestal ou restauração ecológica; (iii) estudos que avaliaram o uso de modelagem de distribuição de espécies como auxílio aos projetos e programas de restauração florestal ou restauração ecológica. Foram encontrados 44 documentos publicados em 30 periódicos científicos com média de 3,91 publicações por ano; 18,55 citações por documento; 197 autores, sendo 3 documentos com autoria única. Assim pode-se concluir que o uso de modelagem de distribuição de espécies para restauração florestal no mundo é muito recente, e no Brasil é incipiente com baixos números de artigos publicados, mas apresenta tendência de crescimento por conta da sua significativa contribuição para melhorar as taxas de sucesso dos projetos de restauração.