A model for predicting the value of forest stands in various market conditions in British Columbia
A model for predicting the value of forest stands was developed at FPInnovations – Feric Division. The model uses standard cruise data collected in British Columbia (BC) and company sort descriptions to predict the distribution of wood volume by species and grade sort for each proposed harvest site. The model is capable of quickly analyzing different scenarios (i.e., different sort sets) to reflect changing market conditions. Within the model, a taper equation is applied to each tree to calculate the diameters inside the bark, and quality and pathological descriptors from cruise data are used. A Dynamic Programming algorithm is used to predict the combination of logs that maximizes the value of each stem, and results are summarized and extended from individual trees to cruise plots, then to harvest blocks and/or stands. The model was successfully tested for second-growth stands with relatively few defects on Coastal BC. Improvements are being implemented to enhance its applicability to more complex stands. Key words: value of forest stands, economic operability, optimal bucking of trees, Dynamic Programming, computer model, inventory systems