The purpose of this study was to use readily available information, including dam pelvic width (PW) and height (PH) and the fetal coronet band (CB) measurement to predict the calving difficulty (CD) score of first-calf heifers under commercial ranch conditions. Data were collected from a cow-calf ranch over a 3-yr period. Using a recursive system of equations, two models were estimated. First, a linear model was used to predict birth weight (BTW) based on the fetal CB measurement. Second, an ordered logit model was used to predict calving difficulty score based on a nonlinear relationship with birth weight, pelvic dimensions of the dam, and interaction terms. The linear model demonstrated that BTW could be predicted using the CB measurement, both the intercept and slope coefficients were significant at P < 0.001. The model R2 was equal to 0.57 and the standard error of the predicted birth weight was 2.77 kg. The ordered logit model correctly predicted 468 of 684 (68.4%) of the CD scores. The results of this research suggest that it is possible to predict dystocia or calving difficulty on a case-by-case basis with information that is available to ranchers or ranch managers early in the parturition process. The management technique presented has been successfully adopted by some large-scale cow-calf operations, thus the results have commercial applications for beef producers. Key words: Dystocia, heifers, beef, recursive systems, ordered logit, coronet band, birth weight
Time to change from a simple linear model to a complex systems model
