Uncertainty and the Oracle of Market Returns: Evidence from Wavelet Coherence Analysis

Wavelet methodology is employed to investigate the statistical relationship between three well-accepted measures of uncertainty and both market and sector returns. Our primary goal is to determine whether uncertainty is sector specific. Although there are periods when the market works effectively as an oracle capturing uncertainty, we also find sector specific uncertainty. The wavelet equivalent of correlation, coherence, is used to determine the presence of sector specific uncertainty. We find that allowing localized information in the time frequency domain is critical for separating out sector specific uncertainty from market uncertainty.