Optimising Malaria Control Interventions in Mali Based on Epidemiological Surveillance and Rainfall Data

Background In malaria endemic countries, control interventions are performed during the high malaria transmission season using epidemiological surveillance data. One such intervention, seasonal chemoprevention (SMC), consists of the monthly administration of antimalarial drugs to children under 5 years. This study proposes an anticipating approach for adapting the timing of SMC interventions in Mali and the number of rounds. Our primary objective was to select the best approach for anticipating the onset of the high transmission season in the different health districts of Mali based on epidemiological surveillance and rainfall data. Our secondary objective was to evaluate the number of malaria cases, hospitalisations, and deaths in children under 5 years that could be prevented in Mali using the selected approach and the additional cost associated.Method Confirmed malaria cases and weekly rainfall data were collected for the 75 health districts of Mali for the 2014-2019 period. The onset of the rainy season, the onset of the high transmission season, the lag between these two events and the duration of the high transmission season were determined for each health district. Two approaches for anticipating the onset of the high transmission season in 2019 were evaluated. Results In 2014-2019, the onset of the rainy season ranged from W17 April to W34 August and that of the high transmission season from W25 June to W40 September. The lag between these two events ranged from 5 to 12 weeks. The duration of the high transmission season ranged from 3 to 6 months. The best approach anticipated the onset of the high transmission season 2019 in June in 2 districts, July in 46 districts, August in 21 districts and September in 6 districts. Using this approach over the 2014-2019 period would have led to changing the timing of SMC interventions in 36 health districts and would have prevented 43,819 cases, 1,943 hospitalisations and 70 deaths in children under 5 years. The additional cost of using our proposed approach is less than 5% of the current approach. Conclusion Adapting the timing of SMC interventions using our proposed approach would improve the prevention of malaria cases, hospitalisations, and deaths for a reasonable additional cost.

On the use of entropy in Markovian model of rainfall

A statistical study of the annual rainfall data at Cocch Behar district during the periodt90 1 to t9S ~ has been undertaken by using. Markov chain model. One step 3 X3 Ma rcov chain model has beenused in (his study. The outcomes of the model reveal normal, bad and good year of rainfall a t the two stationsof thi s district. The hypoth esis of independence has been tested on the use of entropy and it has been ver ifiedusing likelih ood ra tio criterion. The results of the two methods are the same-tha t the yearly rainfall occurrencemay be regarded as independent at the two places o f the district.

Crop yield in India in relation to EI-Nino

ABSTRACT. Association between the EI- Nino events in the Pacific Ocean and the crop yields in India has been examined. Five districts,viz. Churu, Gwalior, Rewa, Palamau and Bankura located on the normal monsoon trough zone and cultivating altogether different, mostly rainfed crops, were selected for the study. Crop and seasonal rainfall data from 1951-88 were utilised in the analysis. The results indicate that the EI-Nino phenomenon does not exert much influence on the kharif. In wave models with cons crops in India.

Depth area duration analysis of short duration rainfalls

Depth Area Duration (DAD) analysis for the extreme rainfall events forms an important step in the hydrological design for the water resources structures. Review of literature reveals that enormous amount of work has been done concerning the DAD analysis for large duration (i.e. one day or more) storms. However, no work is reported so far on this aspect for storms having shorter duration. i.e. less than one day: Hourly rainfall data for 36 rainfall stations have been analysed to develop simple DAD-relationship. This analysis pertains to the catchments of the rivers, namely Ramganga, Gomati, Yamuna and Ghaghara.

Analysis of rainfall data for water management In dry land zone of Karnataka

Bellary region is characterized as one of the semi-arid zones of Karnataka, having only 508 mm of annual rainfall distributed over 35 rainy days. The ill-distribution of rainfall creates at least 5 drought years in every decade. The average rainfa1l distribution shows that there is a total failure in Kharif season. However, some assured rainfall received during September and October a better prospect which assumes for rabi season .This problem can be overcome to. certain extent by scientific management of crops and water. This calls for detailed analysis of any Important water resources Issues. Keeping this mind, an attempt made in this paper to analysis short and long period rainfall data. The probabilities analysis of. rainfall for shorter periods for identification of suitable periods for sowing, return period analysis for designing of soil and water conservation structures and determining the size of storage structures, the identification of number of Various rainfall events for designing water harvesting system for crop and water management are carried out and presented in this paper.

1 to 10 days extreme rainfall studies for Kerala state

The daily rainfall data for 80 years from 98 stations in Kerala region have been analysed to arrive at the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates for rainfall durations or 1 to 10 days. Hershfield's statistical technique has been adopted for the estimation of PMP from annual maximum data. The study will be useful in the estimation of extreme precipitation for computation of design floods, required for design of spillways of dams and other major hydraulic structures in the Kerala state.

Application of the WRF model rainfall product for the localized flood hazard modeling in a data-scarce environment

Urban flood hazard model needs rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolutions for flood hazard analysis to better simulate flood dynamics in complex urban environments. However, in many developing countries, such high-quality data are scarce. Data that exist are also spatially biased toward airports and urban areas in general, where these locations may not represent flood-prone areas. One way to gain insight into the rainfall data and its spatial patterns is through numerical weather prediction models. As their performance improves, these might serve as alternative rainfall data sources for producing optimal design storms required for flood hazard modeling in data-scarce areas. To gain such insight, we developed Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) design storms based on the spatial distribution of high-intensity rainfall events simulated at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Firstly, three known storm events (i.e., 25 June 2012, 13 April 2016, and 16 April 2016) that caused the flood hazard in the study area are simulated using the WRF model. Secondly, the potential gridcell events that are able to trigger the localized flood hazard in the catchment are selected and translated to the WRF design storm form using a quantile expression. Finally, three different WRF design storms per event are constructed: Lower, median, and upper quantiles. The results are compared with the design storms of 2- and 10-year return periods constructed based on the alternating-block method to evaluate differences from a flood hazard assessment point of view. The method is tested in the case of Kampala city, Uganda. The comparison of the design storms indicates that the WRF model design storms properties are in good agreement with the alternating-block design storms. Mainly, the differences between the produced flood characteristics (e.g., hydrographs and the number of flood gird cells) when using WRF lower quantiles (WRFLs) versus 2-year and WRF upper quantiles (WRFUs) versus 10-year alternating-block storms are very minimal. The calculated aggregated performance statistics (F scores) for the simulated flood extent of WRF design storms benchmarked with the alternating-block storms also produced a higher score of 0.9 for both WRF lower quantiles versus 2-year and WRF upper quantile versus 10-year alternating-block storm. The result suggested that the WRF design storms can be considered an added value for flood hazard assessment as they are closer to real systems causing rainfall. However, more research is needed on which area can be considered as a representative area in the catchment. The result has practical application for flood risk assessment, which is the core of integrated flood management.

50 year rainfall data analysis and future trend in Saharanpur region

The environmental implications of rainfall pattern in replenishment of ground water system of Saharanpur region, located in western Uttar Pradesh, have been discussed. The mathematical analysis of rainfall dissimilarity of Saharanpur region for a period of 50 year (1959 to 2008) display a quite good range from 497.70 to 4357.5 mm with an annual average rainfall value of 1209.8 mm. The positive trend of departure from the computer value of average annual rainfall exhibits appropriate periods for recharge of ground water reservoir. The recorded data of annual rainfall during the last 3 year reveal values below the calculated annual average rainfall, pointing out negative trend. The statistical analysis of rainfall data involves computations of various statistical parameters, which also support the negative trend of rainfall. The prediction of expected future rainfall trend for a period up to 2018 has been made, which indicates a negative trend. The proposal have been incorporated to implement a plan for augmentation of ground water resource and also to develop possibilities of rainwater harvesting.