Signatures of Risk

2020 ◽  
pp. 159-178
Author(s):  
Karl Raitz
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Insurance Premium ◽  
Livestock Population ◽  
River Transport ◽  
Actuarial Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Techniques ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Survival Risk ◽  
High Winds ◽  
Efficiency And Productivity

Innovations in production technology and machinery increased efficiency and productivity but also introduced risk, especially if employees were given responsibilities for which they were not trained. Accidents that maimed employees and destroyed structures and equipment were commonplace. Recognizing and addressing risk were important to business survival. Risk also resided in environmental variability; flood and drought, hailstorms, high winds, and lightning could all affect grain production, river transport, water availability and quality, or distillery functions. Cattle and hogs in distillery feeding pens were susceptible to the same diseases that plagued the general livestock population, often with losses sufficient to force distillers into bankruptcy. Fires caused by mechanical failure, lightning, careless use of lanterns, or arson might destroy an entire distillery works. Insurers developed actuarial risk assessment techniques to reduce their vulnerability, and insurance premium rates forced distillers to consider building fire-resistant structures and increase the spacing between warehouses. This, in turn, changed the distilling landscape and introduced formal external controls into the distilling process.

Climate change and fl ood insurance in Germany, Great Britain and Serbia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Slobodan Jovanovic ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Insurance Premium ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Natural Risk ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Risk Insurance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
High Winds

In this paper, the author analyzes the organization of fl ood risk insurance, the risk which signifi cantly deteriorates due to climate change in Germany, the United Kingdom and Serbia. Th e author used selected studies and works, national legislation, insurance conditions and materials of specialized organizations. Climate change signifi cantly aff ects the frequency and severity of the harmful consequences of fl ood risks, which, due to their catastrophic consequences and territorial exposure, require more effi cient prevention measures and the design of their insurance. Floods are increasingly occurring as a result of heavy rainfall and high winds that simultaneously enhance their harmful potential. Th erefore, insurers cannot ignore the impact of climate change on the conditions for taking risks, determining the insurance premium, excesses and all other aspects related to these risks. From the point of view of risk assessment and selection techniques, the principle of fl ood insurability will certainly be applied in the future. Th erefore, refraining insurers from insuring those risks where the recurrence of fl oods is more frequent than a certain number of years (fi ve or ten years), based on the historical development of claims or classifi cation of zones into the danger class with increased frequency, will certainly pose a problem for policyholders. In Germany, fl ood risk cover is provided similarly to a number of Serbian insurers, ie. as an additional risk to basic property risks. However, the German insurance practice provides an opportunity to insure a number of other natural risks as a supplementary risk in the form of a natural risk package. It should be pointed out that there are also insurers in Serbia, whose policy terms regarding the cover scope more or less coincide with the insurance of named risks in Great Britain. Th ese are insurance conditions that represent an extension of the so-called traditional insurance of named fi re risks, which certainly represents a good step in the direction of modernizing the household insurance conditions in Serbia.

Prospective Actuarial Risk Assessment

2009 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Rettenberger ◽  
Anna Matthes ◽  
Douglas P. Boer ◽  
Reinhard Eher
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Actuarial Risk Assessment ◽  
Actuarial Risk

Developing Nonarbitrary Metrics for Risk Communication

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (12) ◽  
pp. 1661-1687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. B. Lehmann ◽  
David Thornton ◽  
L. Maaike Helmus ◽  
R. Karl Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Sexual Offenders ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Violent Recidivism ◽  
Actuarial Risk Assessment ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Risk Ratios ◽  
Risk Categories

Nominal risk categories for actuarial risk assessment information should be grounded in nonarbitrary, evidence-based criteria. The current study presents numeric indicators for interpreting one such tool, the Risk Matrix 2000, which is widely used to assess the recidivism risk of sexual offenders. Percentiles, risk ratios, and 5-year recidivism rates are presented based on an aggregated sample ( N = 3,144) from four settings: England and Wales, Scotland, Germany, and Canada. The Risk Matrix 2000 Sex, Violence, and Combined scales showed moderate accuracy in assessing the risk of sexual, non-sexual violent, and violent recidivism, respectively. Although there were some differences across samples in the distributions of risk categories, relative increases in recidivism for ascending risk categories were remarkably consistent. Options for presenting percentiles, risk ratios, and absolute recidivism estimates in applied evaluations are offered, with discussion of the advantages, disadvantages, and limitations of these risk communication metrics.

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