The predictive and incremental validity of ADHD beyond the VRAG-R in a high-risk sample of young offenders

The VRAG-R is a well-established actuarial risk-assessment instrument, which was originally developed for assessing violent recidivism risk in adult male offenders. Whether or not the VRAG-R can also predict violent recidivism in young offenders is unclear so far. In the emergence of juvenile offending, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) seems to be of major importance suggesting that it could be relevant for risk assessment as well. Thus, we examined the predictive accuracy of the VRAG-R in a high-risk sample of N = 106 (M = 18.3 years, SD = 1.8) young offenders and assessed the incremental predictive validity of ADHD symptomatology beyond the VRAG-R. Within a mean follow-up time of M = 13 years (SD = 1.2), n = 65 (62.5%) young offenders recidivated with a violent offense. We found large effect sizes for the prediction of violent and general recidivism and re-incarcerations using the VRAG-R sum scores. Current ADHD symptomatology added incremental predictive validity beyond the VRAG-R sum scores concerning the prediction of general recidivism but not of violent recidivism. The results supported the use of the VRAG-R for predicting violent recidivism in young offenders. Because ADHD symptomatology improves the predictive performance of the VRAG-R regarding general recidivism, we argue that addressing ADHD symptoms more intensively in the juvenile justice system is of particular importance concerning a successful long-term risk management in adolescents and young adults.

Risk Assessment and Post-Release Recidivism in a Sample of Juvenile Homicide Offenders

Given recent U.S. Supreme Court rulings regarding the constitutionality of juveniles who received mandated life sentences, questions have arisen in the field of criminology regarding how these offenders will adjust if someday released. Risk scores were calculated for 59 male juvenile homicide offenders (JHOs) based upon the eight domains in the Youth Level of Supervision/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) and used to examine recidivism among the 48 JHOs who were released. Sample subjects were charged as adults for murder and attempted murder in the 1980s, convicted, and sentenced to adult prison. Chi-square analyses were used to assess the relationship between risk score category and two measures of recidivism, which were general arrests and violent offenses. Results indicated risk scores failed to predict both general and violent recidivism. Implications of the findings and directions for future research are discussed.

The Violence Prevention Program in South Australia: A Recidivism and Cost–Benefit Analysis Pilot Study

Rehabilitation of incarcerated men is a primary focus of correctional systems across the world. The present pilot study examined the effect of participation in the South Australian Violence Prevention Program (VPP) on recidivism trajectories. Individuals who participated in the VPP were significantly less likely to engage in violent recidivism, with the greatest effect observed between Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islanders relative to similarly matched comparators. In addition, the types of violent crimes committed were less severe for those who engaged in treatment relative to the comparison group. No differences were observed between groups in overall rates of reoffending, or the length of time following release before reoffending. The study also quantified the economic impacts of treatment and found it was associated with a positive cost–benefit ratio of Aus$1.13. The results provide evidence that the VPP does reduce the rate of violent recidivism, and that these results translate into economic benefits for society.

Criminal Histories and Rates of Recidivism Among Two Subtypes of Psychopathic Individuals

Although it is well established that individuals with psychopathic traits are a high-risk group for criminal recidivism, there is considerable evidence that psychopathy is a heterogeneous personality disorder comprised of two subtypes who differ on levels of negative affect (NA). However, few studies have examined differences in criminal histories, and fewer still have investigated differences in recidivism among subtypes of psychopathy. The current study compared criminal histories and recidivism rates between psychopathy subtypes differing in NA (high-NA vs. low-NA) within a sample of adult males incarcerated in state prisons. The high-NA and low-NA psychopathy subtypes did not differ on histories of total, nonviolent, or violent crime, and did not differ on rates of total, nonviolent, or violent recidivism. This finding highlights equally high levels of criminal risk associated with both subtypes of psychopathic individuals. Intervention strategies should be prioritized for both subgroups to effectively reduce the criminal costs associated with psychopathy.

The Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment: Predicting Violence Among Men With a Police Record of Intimate Partner Violence in the United States

The Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) is an actuarial risk assessment tool for intimate partner violence (IPV) recidivism. Despite its international use, there is no published validation of the ODARA’s predictive accuracy in a U.S. sample. We studied 356 men in New York police records of IPV against a female partner to examine the ODARA’s predictive accuracy for IPV recidivism (base rate 35%), non-IPV violent recidivism (against a nonpartner; 16%), any violent recidivism (49%), and nonviolent recidivism (50%), in a fixed 2-year follow-up. Using 11 scorable ODARA items, area under the curve values were significant and ranged from .590 to .630, indicating small to medium effects. Expected/Observed indices revealed poor calibration with 2-year IPV recidivism rates in ODARA construction and cross-validation samples. Findings support the generalization of the ODARA’s predictive accuracy in different populations and outcomes, but a need for new norm development for higher risk populations.

PREDICTING THE RISK OF AGGRESSIVE RECIDIVISM A CRIMINOLOGICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE

Aggressive delinquency is recognized as a one of the most serious threats for the society. Although criminal violence is often considered in the fi eld of criminology, the issues of recurrence of criminal violence are less often undertaken. The article focuses on that important area of interest in criminology, including risk assessment for recurrence of criminal violence in particular. Changes in the penal policy as well as the main assumptions of risk assessment approach were characterised from dual perspective – criminology and forensic psychology. Moreover, the risk factors and protective factors model, diagnostic methods and current directions for predicting violent recidivism were discussed. Besides, threat of criminal aggression was revealed at a broad, social context, including the problem of the “dark number of crimes”. Limitations connected with measuring extent of recurrent aggressive delinquency were also discussed. At the end of the review, authors presented theoretical model included key factors infl uencing at the general level of criminal violence treat. This model consists of four categories: 1) institutions and the legal rules, 2) professional risk assessment, 3) effectiveness of former prisoners adaptation in society, 4) social perception and social attitudes toward risk of harm caused by aggressive crime. Presented article might be useful in discussion around the issue of effective criminal violence prevention.

Brief Motivational Intervention for Substance Use may Decrease Violence Among Heavy Alcohol Users in a Jail Diversion Program

Rates of harmful alcohol use are high among justice-involved individuals and may contribute to violent recidivism. Robust treatments for alcohol-related violence in criminal justice systems are thus a public health priority. In this analysis of existing randomized controlled trial data ( N = 105), we examined the impact of a brief motivational intervention (BMI) for harmful substance use on violent recidivism among individuals in a pretrial jail diversion program. Results indicated that, after controlling for violence history, the intervention’s impact on violent recidivism was moderated by baseline harmful alcohol use. Specifically, among people with severe alcohol problems at baseline, the BMI + standard care group had less violent recidivism at a 1-year follow-up than participants randomized to standard care alone. This finding was unchanged when we accounted for psychopathic traits. Our study provides preliminary evidence that a BMI may be useful for decreasing violent recidivism among heavy drinkers in criminal justice systems.

Performance of small group majorities in a single task

Aggregating decisions from larger groups typically results in outcomes with higher accuracy than decision outcomes from single individuals or smaller groups. Here I argue that it is important to consider not only overall proportion of correct decisions, but also individual competencies in terms of hits (h) and correct rejections (cr). I show that small groups can perform better than randomly selected individuals and larger groups in a single task when the average individual proportion correct is above .5, h and cr are asymmetric around .5, and h+cr>1. If the average individual proportion correct is below .5 and h+cr<1, small groups perform worse than individuals and larger groups. I also demonstrate that these two performance patterns can occur in empirical data from studies on violent recidivism, psychiatric morbidity, anxiety, and deception detection. I also show that the presence of correlations between decisions in a single task has both beneficial and detrimental effects when it comes to small group performance.