Engaging smallholder farmers with seasonal climate forecasts for sustainable crop production in semi-arid areas of Zimbabwe

<p>Semi-arid regions are the regions mostly affected by drought. In these climatically sensitive regions, the frequency and intensity of drought and hot extremes is projected to increase. With increasing precipitation variability in semi-arid regions, sustainable water management is required. Proactive drought and extreme event preparedness, as well as damage mitigation could be provided by the use of seasonal climate forecasts. However, their probabilistic nature, the lack of clear action derivations and institutional conservatism impedes their application in decision making of the water management sector. Using the latest global seasonal climate forecast product (SEAS5) at 35 km resolution and 7 months forecast horizon of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, we show that seasonal-forecast-based actions offer potential economic benefit and allow for climate proofing in semi-arid regions in the case of drought and extreme events. Our analysis includes 7 semi-arid, in parts highly managed river basins with extents from tens of thousands to millions of square kilometers in Africa, Asia and South America. The value of the forecast-based action is derived from the skill measures of hit (worthy action) and false alarm (action in vain) rate and is related to economic expenses through ratios of associated costs and losses of an early action. For water management policies, forecast probability triggers for early action plans can be offered based on expense minimization and event maximization criteria. Our results show that even high lead times and long accumulation periods attain value for a range of users and cost-loss situations. For example, in the case of extreme wet conditions (monthly precipitation above 90<sup>th</sup> percentile), seasonal-forecast-based action in 5 out of 7 regions can still achieve more than 50 % of saved expenses of a perfect forecast at 6 months in advance. The utility of seasonal forecasts strongly depends on the user, the cost-loss situation, the region and the concrete application. In general, seasonal forecasts allow decision makers to save expenses, and to adapt to and mitigate damages of extreme events related to climate change.</p>

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Analysis of Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions on Climate Change, Preference and Willingness-to-pay for Seasonal Climate Forecasts Information in Savelugu Municipality, Ghana

Asian Journal of Environment & Ecology ◽

10.9734/ajee/2019/v9i130084 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 1-11

Author(s):

Nasiru Ibrahim ◽

Kingsley Teye Mensah ◽

Hamdiyah Alhassan ◽

William Adzawla ◽

Christina Adjei-Mensah

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Willingness To Pay ◽

Information Dissemination ◽

Smallholder Farmers ◽

Northern Region ◽

Climate Information ◽

Heckman Model ◽

Seasonal Climate ◽

Climate Forecasts ◽

Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Aim: Agricultural production is directly affected by climate change. This means that access to climate information would help the farmers’ preparedness for farming activities and the decision on the types of crops to grow, when to grow them and the types of farm management activities to adopt. As such, this study analysed farmers’ preference for seasonal climate forecasts and their willingness-to-pay for these information. Place and Duration: The study was conducted in the Savelugu Municipality in the Northern region of Ghana. A single period data was collected for analysis. Methodology: A total of 300 farmers were selected through a two stage sampling procedure and used for the study. From the theory of contingent valuation, a descriptive statistic and Heckman model were used in analysing the data. Results: From the results, the majority of farmers were willing-to-pay for seasonal climate information, especially, climate forecasts on rainfall. The farmers preferred that these seasonal climate forecasts should be disseminated to them through the radio. The farmers exhibit positive willingness-to-pay for seasonal climate forecasts to about 20 Ghana cedis. A number of factors influenced the farmers’ decision and amount they were willing-to-pay and these include gender, age, perception of climate change experience, ownership of radio, off-farm activity and participation in planting for food and jobs (PFFJ) program. Conclusions: The findings of this study highlighted the need for climate information by farmers and how this can be effectively disseminated to them. Generally, government institutions and other private agencies should take up the challenge and opportunity to provide climate information, especially seasonal rainfall forecast, to the farmers at a fee. This fee must be determined at an optimal or at least a breakeven price considering the farmer’s ability to pay. The study also recommended that climate information dissemination should be integrated into government’s PFFJ program.

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Targeting seasonal climate forecasts for integration into household level decisions: the case of smallholder farmers in Lesotho

Geographical Journal ◽

10.1111/j.0016-7398.2004.05002.x ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 170 (1) ◽

pp. 6-21 ◽

Cited By ~ 60

Author(s):

Gina Ziervogel

Keyword(s):

Smallholder Farmers ◽

Seasonal Climate ◽

Household Level ◽

Climate Forecasts ◽

Seasonal Climate Forecasts

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Dead level contour technical design parameters required for sustainable crop production in semi-arid areas of Zimbabwe

10.21203/rs.3.rs-428589/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Douglas Gumbo ◽

Menas Wuta ◽

Isaiah Nyagumbo

Keyword(s):

Crop Production ◽

Smallholder Farmers ◽

Maize Yield ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Design Parameters ◽

Sustainable Crop Production ◽

Spacing Interval ◽

Dry Spells ◽

Sub Saharan ◽

Semi Arid

Abstract Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are increasingly exposed to risks such as erratic rainfall, prolonged dry spells, and frequent droughts that threaten sustainable crop production. This study assessed the effectiveness of dead level contours with innovations (DLC INN), dead level contours with infiltration pits (DLC INFIL), dead level contours with open channels (DLC OPEN) and standard graded contours (SGCs) in harvesting and storing water in the channel, improving crop conditions during the critical stages of maize growth on different soil textural groups in the Zvishavane District of Zimbabwe. The DLC INFIL, DLC OPEN and DLC INN outperformed the SGC under medium- and heavy-textured soils, with yields ranging between 1.7 and 2.36 t/ha compared to 0.9 t/ha for the SGC. For light textured soils, the DLC INN had the highest maize yield, averaging 0.8 t/ha. On heavy textured soils using DLC INN, DLC INFIL and DLC OPEN, smallholder farmers may use a spacing interval of 24–27 m. On medium textured soils, DLC INN and DLC INFIL can be used at a spacing interval of 18–21 m and 12 to 15 m with DLC OPEN. On light textured soils, farmers are advised to invest in DLC INN only, using a spacing interval of 12–15 m.

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