Knowledge of climate impacts is necessarily embedded in multifaceted, multiscaled contexts. The many facets include physical, ecological, and biological factors—as well as social, political, and economic ones—interacting on a spectrum of scales ranging from the individual to the household, the community, the region, the nation, and the world. Such complexities encompass natural as well as cultural aspects. Therefore, assessing the role of climate requires a comprehensive, integrated approach. Various methods and models have been proposed or developed to aid understanding of the relationships between agriculture and climate variability (and more specifically, ENSO) in regions around the world. Relevant methods include socioeconomic research techniques such as interviews and surveys; statistical analyses of climate and agronomic data; spatial analysis of remote-sensing observations; climate-scenario development with global and regional climate models and weather generators; and cropmodel simulations. Here we describe conceptual models that guide regional analysis, a framework of methods for regional studies, and examples of research in several agricultural regions that experience varying degrees of ENSO effects. Conceptual models are important because they can guide research and application projects and help physical, biological, and social scientists work together effectively within a common context. Equally important is the role of conceptual models in promoting effective interactions between researchers and agricultural practitioners. An early conceptual model for enhancing the usefulness of seasonal climate forecasts has been called the “end-to-end” approach (figure 5.1a). This model consists of a linear unidirectional trajectory in which El Niño events precipitate climate phenomena that, in turn, induce agronomic responses, with ensuing economic consequences. In disciplinary terms, the end-to-end trajectory begins with the physical sciences, proceeds to agronomy, and then to social science—primarily economics. The end-to-end model quickly evolved into an “end-to-multiple-ends” approach (figure 5.1b) because social science consists of many disciplines besides economics. Outcomes and insights regarding the use of seasonal climate forecasts differ, depending on whether the disciplines of economics, anthropology, political science, or sociology are involved. However, a weakness of these conceptual models is the absence of agricultural practitioners (e.g., farmers, planners, input providers, and insurers) in the research process.
Valuing Seasonal Climate Forecasts in the Northern Australia Beef Industry