Dynamic sexual offense risk assessment using the VRS-SO with indeterminate sentenced men

Indeterminate detention (ID) is a high stakes sanction reserved for exceptionally high risk-high need (HRHN) persons who are deemed to pose an undue risk to public safety. It is one of the most extreme measures that is routinely taken by justice systems to manage sexual violence risk and prevent sexual and violent recidivism. Naturally, risk assessment is most frequently employed as a mechanism to keep dangerous people in custody; but seldom is risk assessment viewed as a possible ticket out for men with an ID designation who have made substantive risk changes and whose risk can be safely managed in the community. This article features applications of a dynamic sexual violence risk assessment and treatment planning tool, the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO), with ID individuals and other HRHN men, to assess risk in a dynamic manner to inform risk management efforts and release decisions. VRS-SO data on an ID sample are presented along with clinical illustrations of dynamic risk assessment. Several propositions are made with supporting data from VRS-SO normative research with treated sexual offending samples regarding the use of dynamic tools with ID men and the perils and pitfalls of relying solely on static measures. Ultimately, dynamic risk instruments can be used to track progress and monitor risk change over multiple assessments to inform release and reintegration decisions with ID persons. In this regard, dynamic assessment has the potential to help, rather than hinder, reintegration of ID sentenced persons and can inform safe, fair, and humane decisions.

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Incremental Contributions of Static and Dynamic Sexual Violence Risk Assessment: Integrating Static-99R and VRS-SO Common Language Risk Levels

Criminal Justice and Behavior ◽

10.1177/0093854820974400 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 009385482097440

Author(s):

Mark E. Olver ◽

Sharon M. Kelley ◽

Drew A. Kingston ◽

Sarah M. Beggs Christofferson ◽

David Thornton ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Sexual Violence ◽

Sexual Offending ◽

Violence Risk ◽

Average Risk ◽

Common Language ◽

Violence Risk Assessment ◽

Treatment Change ◽

Risk Levels ◽

Dynamic Risk

We examined the incremental contributions of static and dynamic sexual violence risk assessment in a multisite sample of 1,289 men treated for sexual offending. The study extends validation work that established new risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO), using the risk assessment common language (CL) framework. Different rates of sexual recidivism were observed at different thresholds of static risk (Static-99R) as a function of dynamic risk and treatment change, particularly for men who were actuarially above or well above average risk (Levels IVa and IVb, respectively). A framework integrating CL risk levels for Static-99R and VRS-SO dynamic scores into overall CL risk levels is presented. We discuss implications for dynamic sexual violence risk assessment regarding the language used for risk communication and the importance of dynamic risk instruments in sexual violence evaluations, particularly when credible agents of risk change may be present.

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Validity and Reliability of the Violence Risk Scale–Youth Sexual Offense Version

Sexual Abuse ◽

10.1177/1079063219858064 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 32 (7) ◽

pp. 826-849 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Erika Y. Rojas ◽

Mark E. Olver

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Treatment Planning ◽

Sex Offender ◽

Sexual Offense ◽

Violence Risk ◽

Validity And Reliability ◽

Assessment Protocol ◽

Assessment And Treatment ◽

General Recidivism ◽

Risk Scale

The present study examined the validity and reliability of a youth sexual offense risk assessment and treatment planning tool, the Violence Risk Scale–Youth Sexual Offense Version (VRS-YSO), on a sample of 102 court-adjudicated youth referred to assessment and/or treatment outpatient services followed up an average of 11.7 years in the community. VRS-YSO scores demonstrated “good” to “excellent” interrater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficients [ICCs] = .64-.83). Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) of the static and dynamic items identified three latent dimensions consistent with the extant risk literature labeled Sexual Deviance, Antisocial Tendencies, and Family Concerns. VRS-YSO scores showed strong patterns of convergence with scores from the Estimate of Risk for Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (ERASOR), Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol–II (J-SOAP-II), and the Juvenile Sexual Offense Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool–II (J-SORRAT-II). VRS-YSO scores, in turn, demonstrated moderate to high predictive accuracy for sexual, violent (sexual and nonsexual), and general recidivism (significant areas under curve [AUCs] = .67-.88). Examination of pre–posttreatment change data on the subset of youth who attended treatment services found VRS-YSO change scores to be significantly associated with reductions in general recidivism, but not other recidivism outcomes. Future research and clinical applications of the VRS-YSO in youth sexual offense assessment and treatment planning are discussed.

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Dynamic Risk Assessment of Underground Engineering Construction

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.584-586.2631 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 584-586 ◽

pp. 2631-2634

Author(s):

Shu Min Nie ◽

Xiu Ting Su ◽

Yan Liu

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Computer System ◽

Dynamic Assessment ◽

Underground Engineering ◽

Engineering Construction ◽

Time Dynamic ◽

Dynamic Risk ◽

Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽

Heavy Workload ◽

Data Tracking

Risk assessment is generally static. However, in the process of construction, there actually are plenty of changing variables; the result of the risk assessment should also change simultaneously. Real-time dynamic risk assessment is required to find problems and guide the construction at any time. It is hard for manual dynamic assessment because of the heavy workload to consider every changeable factor. Assistant computer system with automatic abnormal data tracking and risk assistant analysis is necessary. This paper will introduce the dynamic risk assessment function of this system.

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Stable-2007 and indeterminate detention

Sexual Offending: Theory, Research, and Prevention ◽

10.5964/sotrap.4587 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Andrew J. R. Harris

Keyword(s):

Sexual Offending ◽

Meta Analysis ◽

Dynamic Assessment ◽

Reliability And Validity ◽

Future Research ◽

Dynamic Risk Factors ◽

Dynamic Risk ◽

Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽

History Of ◽

Implicit Assessment

Public safety is the primary reason to assess future risk in men with a history of sexual offending. Over the last twenty-five years our knowledge of, and ability to assess, dynamic risk factors in men with a history of sexual offending has meaningfully improved, but understanding, adoption, utilization, and reasonable implementation of the fruits of this new knowledge is not universal. This article presents a brief overview of the development of dynamic risk assessment for men with a history of sexual offending, primarily following the work of R. Karl Hanson and his associates. This is followed by a review of a meta-analysis on the reliability and validity of STABLE-2007 and two other independent studies that provide useful ancillary information. Utilizing STABLE-2007 with men faced with, or under sanction of indeterminate detention is the focus of this paper and we will review how mental health diagnoses affect recidivism assessment, some concerns about implicit assessment biases, how to employ stable dynamic assessment in secure facilities, address treatment implications resulting from dynamic assessment, and present ideas for future research. I will close by presenting nine (9) arguments why using STABLE-2007 is recommended practice with indeterminate detention populations.

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