Stable-2007 and indeterminate detention

Public safety is the primary reason to assess future risk in men with a history of sexual offending. Over the last twenty-five years our knowledge of, and ability to assess, dynamic risk factors in men with a history of sexual offending has meaningfully improved, but understanding, adoption, utilization, and reasonable implementation of the fruits of this new knowledge is not universal. This article presents a brief overview of the development of dynamic risk assessment for men with a history of sexual offending, primarily following the work of R. Karl Hanson and his associates. This is followed by a review of a meta-analysis on the reliability and validity of STABLE-2007 and two other independent studies that provide useful ancillary information. Utilizing STABLE-2007 with men faced with, or under sanction of indeterminate detention is the focus of this paper and we will review how mental health diagnoses affect recidivism assessment, some concerns about implicit assessment biases, how to employ stable dynamic assessment in secure facilities, address treatment implications resulting from dynamic assessment, and present ideas for future research. I will close by presenting nine (9) arguments why using STABLE-2007 is recommended practice with indeterminate detention populations.

Forensic application of static and dynamic risk factors: Is it the right time?

It is common, accepted clinical practice to conduct risk assessments of individuals who commit sexual offenses using the combination of sexual violence risk actuarial measures and dynamic risk factors. This assessment approach has utility when identifying treatment targets, assessing progress in sexual offender treatment, and forming risk management plans. Little research has examined this method in forensic contexts such as deciding whether individuals who suffer from mental disorders are likely to engage in sexually dangerous behavior as defined by sexually violent predator or persons (“SVP”) involuntary civil confinement laws in the USA. In particular, it is uncertain whether the combination of sexual violence risk actuarial measures and dynamic risk factors (DRF) produces sufficiently reliable, relevant, and probative evidence for the trier of fact to properly evaluate the SVP legally defined likelihood of sexual dangerousness. This article explores the efficacy of combining actuarial measures of sexual violence risk and dynamic risk factors as applied in SVP risk assessments based on some commonly observed forensic practices among evaluators. Based on the analysis, recommendations for forensic practice and future research are offered.

Assessing dynamic risk factors in institutional settings using STABLE-2007

Assessing dynamic risk factors for persons who reside in an institution can be a challenge. Conceptualizing and scoring dynamic risk factors is more difficult when environments are restricted and opportunities for those being assessed to demonstrate changes in behaviour may be few and far between. Additionally, because dynamic risk measures rely partly on file information scoring is dependent on the training and backgrounds of the people who record information and their personal decisions as to what they consider important enough to include in records. This may mean that scoring under research conditions based only on file review does not reflect the reliability of the measure under clinical conditions. Despite these challenges the present paper argues that there is sufficient evidence to support the use of STABLE-2007 as a reliable and valid measure of dynamic risk factors in institutional settings under both clinical and research conditions. Tips are provided on how to conceptualize institutional behaviours in a manner relevant to dynamic risk factors and how to weigh historical versus more recent information. Finally, recommendations are made for implementing a thoughtful system of checks and balances relevant to the assessment process in institutional settings.

Predicting short-term suicidal thoughts in adolescents using machine learning: developing decision tools to identify daily level risk after hospitalization

Background Mobile technology offers unique opportunities for monitoring short-term suicide risk in daily life. In this study of suicidal adolescent inpatients, theoretically informed risk factors were assessed daily following discharge to predict near-term suicidal ideation and inform decision algorithms for identifying elevations in daily level risk, with implications for real-time suicide-focused interventions. Methods Adolescents (N = 78; 67.9% female) completed brief surveys texted daily for 4 weeks after discharge (n = 1621 observations). Using multi-level classification and regression trees (CARTSs) with repeated 5-fold cross-validation, we tested (a) a simple prediction model incorporating previous-day scores for each of 10 risk factors, and (b) a more complex model incorporating, for each of these factors, a time-varying person-specific mean over prior days together with deviation from that mean. Models also incorporated missingness and contextual (study week, day of the week) indicators. The outcome was the presence/absence of next-day suicidal ideation. Results The best-performing model (cross-validated AUC = 0.86) was a complex model that included ideation duration, hopelessness, burdensomeness, and self-efficacy to refrain from suicidal action. An equivalent model that excluded ideation duration had acceptable overall performance (cross-validated AUC = 0.78). Models incorporating only previous-day scores, with and without ideation duration (cross-validated AUC of 0.82 and 0.75, respectively), showed relatively weaker performance. Conclusions Results suggest that specific combinations of dynamic risk factors assessed in adolescents' daily life have promising utility in predicting next-day suicidal thoughts. Findings represent an important step in the development of decision tools identifying short-term risk as well as guiding timely interventions sensitive to proximal elevations in suicide risk in daily life.

Beyond dynamic risk factors: Towards a comprehensive explanation of offending

<p>The current conceptualisation of dynamic risk factors (DRF) for criminal offending is problematic. There have been significant conceptual issues highlighted in this domain, however, until recently addressing these has not been a priority for researchers. Instead, research has predominantly focused on the success of DRF in predicting reoffending and the effectiveness of treatment programmes that target these factors. DRF are typically defined as aspects of individuals and their environments that are associated with an increased likelihood of reoffending, and they are widely considered ‘plausible causes’ of criminal behaviour. It is acknowledged that this definition encompasses a wide range of individual characteristics, social processes, behaviours, and environmental features, and that these vary in their ability to explain and predict offending. The more recent interest in features that reduce risk has prompted similar discussions about the concept of protective factors (PF). Given the frequent use of, and interest in, these foundational concepts it is timely to investigate them in depth, and to address two key issues. First, both DRF and PF are broad category labels that encompass a diverse (and largely unspecified) range of psychological and contextual features and processes. Second, without a clear understanding of what exactly these constructs are, it is difficult to effectively link them to correctional research and practice. I will begin this thesis by setting out the problems with the reliance on DRF to explain offending. I will do this by exploring recent empirical findings concerning their relationship with recidivism and outlining numerous conceptual problems which make DRF poor candidates for causal explanation. I will then suggest a shift in focus, from these crime correlates to human nature and agency, and argue that this perspective is essential in explaining any behaviour. I will present a preliminary model based on agency and demonstrate the utility of this perspective in reconceptualising DRF as aspects of goal-directed behaviour. Next, I will develop a framework for continuing this theoretical research and adding depth to theories of agency. Finally, I will discuss the implications of agency theories for forensic interventions, including their integration with widely used rehabilitation models. I will conclude with an evaluation of the approaches developed throughout this thesis and make some suggestions for future research. This research holds promise in directing the field away from the otherwise inevitable theoretical ‘dead end’.</p>

Beyond dynamic risk factors: Towards a comprehensive explanation of offending

<p>The current conceptualisation of dynamic risk factors (DRF) for criminal offending is problematic. There have been significant conceptual issues highlighted in this domain, however, until recently addressing these has not been a priority for researchers. Instead, research has predominantly focused on the success of DRF in predicting reoffending and the effectiveness of treatment programmes that target these factors. DRF are typically defined as aspects of individuals and their environments that are associated with an increased likelihood of reoffending, and they are widely considered ‘plausible causes’ of criminal behaviour. It is acknowledged that this definition encompasses a wide range of individual characteristics, social processes, behaviours, and environmental features, and that these vary in their ability to explain and predict offending. The more recent interest in features that reduce risk has prompted similar discussions about the concept of protective factors (PF). Given the frequent use of, and interest in, these foundational concepts it is timely to investigate them in depth, and to address two key issues. First, both DRF and PF are broad category labels that encompass a diverse (and largely unspecified) range of psychological and contextual features and processes. Second, without a clear understanding of what exactly these constructs are, it is difficult to effectively link them to correctional research and practice. I will begin this thesis by setting out the problems with the reliance on DRF to explain offending. I will do this by exploring recent empirical findings concerning their relationship with recidivism and outlining numerous conceptual problems which make DRF poor candidates for causal explanation. I will then suggest a shift in focus, from these crime correlates to human nature and agency, and argue that this perspective is essential in explaining any behaviour. I will present a preliminary model based on agency and demonstrate the utility of this perspective in reconceptualising DRF as aspects of goal-directed behaviour. Next, I will develop a framework for continuing this theoretical research and adding depth to theories of agency. Finally, I will discuss the implications of agency theories for forensic interventions, including their integration with widely used rehabilitation models. I will conclude with an evaluation of the approaches developed throughout this thesis and make some suggestions for future research. This research holds promise in directing the field away from the otherwise inevitable theoretical ‘dead end’.</p>

A framework for young people with neurodisability who engage in antisocial behaviour: Introducing the PAM-NEXT

<p>In recent times there has been greater recognition of the over representation of young people with neurodisability within youth justice systems worldwide. This poses a problem for practitioners and suggests that current treatments based on addressing dynamic risk factors may be inadequate for addressing the needs of this group. This thesis elucidates these challenges and extends the Predictive Agency Model (PAM; Heffernan & Ward, 2017) into the Predictive Agency Model-Neurodisability Extension (PAM-NEXT). This extension considers how neurodisability can contribute to a maladaptive developmental history for young people which, in some cases, can lead to exposure to dynamic risk factors. The PAM-NEXT provides a framework to consider how these factors can be operationalised within the process of antisocial behaviour for young people with neurodisabilities. The PAM-NEXT is then applied to composite cases of young people who have engaged in antisocial behaviour to demonstrate its utility. Lastly the PAM-NEXT is evaluated and future directions discussed. The PAM-NEXT can provide practitioners options to adequately target treatment for young people with neurodisability who engage in antisocial behaviour.</p>

A framework for young people with neurodisability who engage in antisocial behaviour: Introducing the PAM-NEXT

<p>In recent times there has been greater recognition of the over representation of young people with neurodisability within youth justice systems worldwide. This poses a problem for practitioners and suggests that current treatments based on addressing dynamic risk factors may be inadequate for addressing the needs of this group. This thesis elucidates these challenges and extends the Predictive Agency Model (PAM; Heffernan & Ward, 2017) into the Predictive Agency Model-Neurodisability Extension (PAM-NEXT). This extension considers how neurodisability can contribute to a maladaptive developmental history for young people which, in some cases, can lead to exposure to dynamic risk factors. The PAM-NEXT provides a framework to consider how these factors can be operationalised within the process of antisocial behaviour for young people with neurodisabilities. The PAM-NEXT is then applied to composite cases of young people who have engaged in antisocial behaviour to demonstrate its utility. Lastly the PAM-NEXT is evaluated and future directions discussed. The PAM-NEXT can provide practitioners options to adequately target treatment for young people with neurodisability who engage in antisocial behaviour.</p>

The Conceptualisation of Risk and Protective Factors in Child Sex Offenders: A Preliminary Theoretical Model

<p>The current preoccupation of criminal justice practitioners and policy makers with the prediction of criminal risk has resulted in a conceptualisation of risk as clusters of phenomena that correlate with recidivism. A reliance on these phenomena as explanations for the causes of sexual offending is a mistake. The growing gap between theory and practice highlights the need for theoretical models that can account for the existence and influence of risk-related factors. Two key issues that need to be addressed concern the composite nature of dynamic risk factors, and questions over their ontological status, that is, whether or not they exist outside of prediction contexts. This thesis begins with an exploration and reconceptualisation of the phenomena that increase and decrease risk of sexual offending; the focus is then widened to include human agency, motivation, and values. These normative features are integrated with risk-related factors within the action-based Agency Model of Risk (AMR). This dynamic, interactional model highlights the importance of the relationship between the agent and their context, with both contributing to the patterns of behaviour that lead to an offence. Finally the AMR is applied to a number of risk domains for sexual offenders, and its utility in explaining their behaviour is discussed. The aim of this thesis is to encourage a broader focus on human values, agency, and contexts that influence an individual’s goal-directed behaviour.</p>