Identifying mechanisms of population change in two threatened grizzly bear populations

<p>Identifying the mechanisms causing population change is essential for conserving small and declining populations. Substantial range contraction of many carnivore species has resulted in fragmented global populations with numerous small isolates in need of conservation. Here I investigate the rate and possible agents of change in two threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) populations in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. I use a combination of population vital rates estimates, population trends, habitat quality analyses, and comparisons to what has been described in the literature, to carefully compare among possible mechanisms of change. First, I estimate population density, realized growth rates (λ), and the demographic components of population change for each population using DNA based capture-recapture data in both spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) and non-spatial Pradel robust design frameworks. The larger population had 21.5 bears/1000km2 and between 2006 and 2016 was growing (λPradel = 1.02 ± 0.02 SE, λsecr = 1.01 ± 4.6 x10-5 SE) following the cessation of hunting. The adjacent but smaller population had 6.3 bears/1000km2 and between 2005 and 2017 was likely declining (λPradel = 0.95 ± 0.03 SE, λsecr = 0.98 ± 0.02 SE). Estimates of apparent survival and recruitment indicated that lower recruitment was the dominant factor limiting population growth in the smaller population. Then I use data from GPS-collared bears to estimate reproduction, survival and projected population change (λ) in both populations. Adult female survival was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.80-0.99) in the larger population (McGillvary Mountains or MM) and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.69-0.95) in the small, isolated population (North Stein-Nahatlatch or NSN). Cub survival was also higher in the MM (0.85, 95%CI: 0.62-0.95) than the NSN population (0.33, 95%CI: 0.11-0.67). This analysis identifies both low adult female survival and low cub survival as the demographic factors associated with population decline in the smaller population. By comparing the vital rates from these two populations with other small populations, I suggest that when grizzly bear populations are isolated, there appears to be a tipping point (de Silva and Leimgruber 2019) around 50 individuals, below which adult female mortality, even with intensive management, becomes prohibitive for population recovery. This analysis provides the first detailed estimates of population vital rates for a grizzly bear population of this size, and this information has been important for subsequent management action. To determine whether bottom-up factors (i.e. food) are limiting population growth and recovery in the small isolated population I use resource selection analysis from GPS collar data. I develop resource selection functions (RSF) for four dominant foraging seasons: the spring-early summer season when bears feed predominantly on herbaceous plants and dig for bulbs, the early fruit season where they feed on low elevation berries and cherries, the huckleberry season and the post berry season when foraging behaviours are most diverse but whitebark pine nuts are a relatively common food source. The differences in overall availability of high-quality habitats for different food types, especially huckleberries, between populations suggests that season specific bottom-up effects may account for some differences in population densities. Resource selections are a very common tool used for estimating resource distribution and availability, however, their ability to estimate food abundance on the ground are usually not tested. I assessed the accuracy of the resulting RSF models for predicting huckleberry presence and abundance measured in field plots. My results show that berry specific models did predict berry abundance in previously disturbed sites though varied in accuracy depending on how the models were categorized and projected across the landscape. Finally, I combine spatially explicit capture-recapture methods and models developed from resource selection modelling to estimate the effect of seasonal habitat availability and open road density, as a surrogate for top-down effects, on the bear density in the two populations. I found that population density is most strongly connected to habitats selected during a season when bears fed on huckleberries, the major high-energy food bears eat during hyperphagia in this area, as well as a large baseline difference between populations. The abundance of high-quality huckleberry habitat appears to be an important factor enabling the recovery of the larger population that is also genetically connected to other bears. The adjacent, smaller and genetically isolated population is not growing. The relatively low abundance of high-quality berry habitat in this population may be contributing to the lack of growth of the population. However, it is likely that the legacy of historic mortality and current stochastic effects, inbreeding effects, or other Allee effects, are also contributing to the continued low density observed. While these small population effects may be more challenging to overcome, this analysis suggests that the landscape can accommodate a higher population density than that currently observed.</p>

Identifying mechanisms of population change in two threatened grizzly bear populations

<p>Identifying the mechanisms causing population change is essential for conserving small and declining populations. Substantial range contraction of many carnivore species has resulted in fragmented global populations with numerous small isolates in need of conservation. Here I investigate the rate and possible agents of change in two threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) populations in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. I use a combination of population vital rates estimates, population trends, habitat quality analyses, and comparisons to what has been described in the literature, to carefully compare among possible mechanisms of change. First, I estimate population density, realized growth rates (λ), and the demographic components of population change for each population using DNA based capture-recapture data in both spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) and non-spatial Pradel robust design frameworks. The larger population had 21.5 bears/1000km2 and between 2006 and 2016 was growing (λPradel = 1.02 ± 0.02 SE, λsecr = 1.01 ± 4.6 x10-5 SE) following the cessation of hunting. The adjacent but smaller population had 6.3 bears/1000km2 and between 2005 and 2017 was likely declining (λPradel = 0.95 ± 0.03 SE, λsecr = 0.98 ± 0.02 SE). Estimates of apparent survival and recruitment indicated that lower recruitment was the dominant factor limiting population growth in the smaller population. Then I use data from GPS-collared bears to estimate reproduction, survival and projected population change (λ) in both populations. Adult female survival was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.80-0.99) in the larger population (McGillvary Mountains or MM) and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.69-0.95) in the small, isolated population (North Stein-Nahatlatch or NSN). Cub survival was also higher in the MM (0.85, 95%CI: 0.62-0.95) than the NSN population (0.33, 95%CI: 0.11-0.67). This analysis identifies both low adult female survival and low cub survival as the demographic factors associated with population decline in the smaller population. By comparing the vital rates from these two populations with other small populations, I suggest that when grizzly bear populations are isolated, there appears to be a tipping point (de Silva and Leimgruber 2019) around 50 individuals, below which adult female mortality, even with intensive management, becomes prohibitive for population recovery. This analysis provides the first detailed estimates of population vital rates for a grizzly bear population of this size, and this information has been important for subsequent management action. To determine whether bottom-up factors (i.e. food) are limiting population growth and recovery in the small isolated population I use resource selection analysis from GPS collar data. I develop resource selection functions (RSF) for four dominant foraging seasons: the spring-early summer season when bears feed predominantly on herbaceous plants and dig for bulbs, the early fruit season where they feed on low elevation berries and cherries, the huckleberry season and the post berry season when foraging behaviours are most diverse but whitebark pine nuts are a relatively common food source. The differences in overall availability of high-quality habitats for different food types, especially huckleberries, between populations suggests that season specific bottom-up effects may account for some differences in population densities. Resource selections are a very common tool used for estimating resource distribution and availability, however, their ability to estimate food abundance on the ground are usually not tested. I assessed the accuracy of the resulting RSF models for predicting huckleberry presence and abundance measured in field plots. My results show that berry specific models did predict berry abundance in previously disturbed sites though varied in accuracy depending on how the models were categorized and projected across the landscape. Finally, I combine spatially explicit capture-recapture methods and models developed from resource selection modelling to estimate the effect of seasonal habitat availability and open road density, as a surrogate for top-down effects, on the bear density in the two populations. I found that population density is most strongly connected to habitats selected during a season when bears fed on huckleberries, the major high-energy food bears eat during hyperphagia in this area, as well as a large baseline difference between populations. The abundance of high-quality huckleberry habitat appears to be an important factor enabling the recovery of the larger population that is also genetically connected to other bears. The adjacent, smaller and genetically isolated population is not growing. The relatively low abundance of high-quality berry habitat in this population may be contributing to the lack of growth of the population. However, it is likely that the legacy of historic mortality and current stochastic effects, inbreeding effects, or other Allee effects, are also contributing to the continued low density observed. While these small population effects may be more challenging to overcome, this analysis suggests that the landscape can accommodate a higher population density than that currently observed.</p>

Genomic evidence for inbreeding depression and purging of deleterious genetic variation in Indian tigers

Increasing habitat fragmentation leads to wild populations becoming small, isolated, and threatened by inbreeding depression. However, small populations may be able to purge recessive deleterious alleles as they become expressed in homozygotes, thus reducing inbreeding depression and increasing population viability. We used whole-genome sequences from 57 tigers to estimate individual inbreeding and mutation load in a small–isolated and two large–connected populations in India. As expected, the small–isolated population had substantially higher average genomic inbreeding (FROH = 0.57) than the large–connected (FROH = 0.35 and FROH = 0.46) populations. The small–isolated population had the lowest loss-of-function mutation load, likely due to purging of highly deleterious recessive mutations. The large populations had lower missense mutation loads than the small–isolated population, but were not identical, possibly due to different demographic histories. While the number of the loss-of-function alleles in the small–isolated population was lower, these alleles were at higher frequencies and homozygosity than in the large populations. Together, our data and analyses provide evidence of 1) high mutation load, 2) purging, and 3) the highest predicted inbreeding depression, despite purging, in the small–isolated population. Frequency distributions of damaging and neutral alleles uncover genomic evidence that purifying selection has removed part of the mutation load across Indian tiger populations. These results provide genomic evidence for purifying selection in both small and large populations, but also suggest that the remaining deleterious alleles may have inbreeding-associated fitness costs. We suggest that genetic rescue from sources selected based on genome-wide differentiation could offset any possible impacts of inbreeding depression.

Distribution update, male genitalia, natural history, and conservation of the stump-tailed porcupine Coendou rufescens in South America

The stump-tailed porcupine, Coendou rufescens, is a widely distributed but scarcely documented species inhabiting the Andean region of Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and an isolated population in Bolivia. Despite the wide distribution different aspects on its biology and ecology are still unknown. We present an update to the distribution of C. rufescens, and recent observations on the anatomy, natural history, and conservation in Colombia. For this, we described the male genitalia and present data on reproductive periods, plants used and consumed, and threats. The distribution of C. rufescens comprises 12 ecoregions in an area of 376,225 km2 for the northern group (Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru) and 393 km2 for the southern group (Bolivia). The highest elevational record is in Ecuador (4387 m), being the porcupine inhabiting at highest elevations. The anatomy of the glans is similar to that observed in Coendou quichua and constitutes the second species of Coendou with available information on glans morphology. C. rufescens consumes fruits and leaves of potato cider (Sechium edule: Cucurbitaceae) and woody shrub (Bejaria: Ericacea), and usually perches even in exotic species such as pines. Finally, common treats for the species in Colombia are related to hunting pressures, predation by domestic dogs, and roadkills.

Cyclic abundance fluctuations in a completely isolated population of Euphydryas maturna

A highly isolated and the last autochthonous Czech Republic population of the endangered Euphydryas maturna (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) is monitored since 2001 by larval nests counts. The 20 years` time series displays remarkable abundance fluctuations with peak-to-peak period 11 years, peak numbers &gt;150 and bust numbers &lt;15 larval nests (arithmetic and harmonic means: 92.6 and 36.3). Establishment of more favourable management of the site probably heightened and prolonged the boom phase but did not alter the overall pattern. We attribute the cycling to pressures of natural enemies. Climatically unfavourable years appear deepening the bust phase. Species displaying such fluctuations cannot be conserved within a single site, which is being addressed by ex-situ breeding of the Czech stock and recent reestablishment of two additional populations, with the aim to achieve asynchronous dynamics of the local populations and eventually stabilise the regional metapopulation.

Updated distribution of four stenohaline fish species in Labrador, Canada

Distributions of freshwater fish species in Labrador are poorly documented as the region is remote and sparsely inhabited. Here, we update distributions of four species native to the Labrador Peninsula based on data collected over 10 years: Burbot (Lota lota), Round Whitefish (Prosopium cylindraceum), Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush), and Slimy Sculpin (Cottus cognatus). In northern Labrador, our findings extend their ranges inland and northwest of their formerly reported distributions. Their presence in previously unknown locations indicates an alternative post-glacial colonization pathway to one previously proposed that suggested an isolated pocket of Lake Trout in a northern coastal area colonized through marine invasion. Instead, we suggest that overland colonization occurred when glacial Lake Naskaupi withdrew across Quebec into several northern drainages. In southern Labrador, we found Lake Trout and Round Whitefish to the southeast of their previously reported ranges. The discovery of an isolated population of Lake Trout in a remote location of southeast Labrador implies that they may have existed in the area historically (6000 years ago), but have undergone a range contraction with a warming climate. In addition, 22 new locations are documented for Lake Trout within their established range.

Sur la validité d’Oreina (Chrysochloa) cacaliae tristis (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae)

About the validity of Oreina (Chrysochloa) cacaliae tristis (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae). The status of Oreina cacaliae tristis (Fabricius, 1792), established for more than two centuries, is wholly confirmed by the fine elytral microsculpture and the blue colour of the insects, which represent moreover an isolated population of the occidental and central Alps. The recent treatment of tristis as a synonymous of Oreina cacaliae (Schrank, 1785) is not acceptable: tristis must be maintained as a subspecies of cacaliae.