On Maskirovka: the dynamics of delay in threat recognition

Across military Zweikampf and public health, error, blindness, and incompetence carry singular burden. Here, we adapt methods developed for the analysis of pandemic mismanagement to the study of armed conflict. Stability of control during such conflict depends on prompt recognition of, and response to, rapidly changing events. In addition to “conventional” Clausewitzian fog and friction, there are almost always inherent or induced delays to threat recognition. For a system to be stable without such delay, there will be a critical lag at which control fails, as it similarly does if institutional cognition sufficiently degrades. In such cases, tactical thrashing becomes manifest. In a military context, there is no way around such dynamics, which are routinely—often brilliantly—exploited.

Preventing the next pandemic

Scientists have increasingly sounded the alarm about insufficient global pandemic preparedness, messaging which has appropriately escalated in the past two decades after the SARS (Severe acute respiratory syndrome), MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome), and Ebola outbreaks [1]. This global lack of readiness was revealed during the most recent COVID-19 pandemic via slow threat recognition, early mixed public health messaging, supply chain disruptions, and vaccine rollout challenges [2]. This article reviews how pandemic pathogens originate and describes methods of early pathogen detection. It also details how multi-level interventions such as public health messaging, widespread accessible testing, and international cooperation, including funding, are critical tools for mitigating the spread of disease. Finally, we discuss how advancements in biotechnology help counter widespread outbreaks, including the use of early molecular diagnostics, application of therapeutics, and the development of "plug and play" vaccines. The world demands early and strong preparation to prevent the next pandemic.

Neurobehavioral correlates of impaired emotion recognition in pediatric PTSD

Despite broad evidence suggesting that adversity-exposed youth experience an impaired ability to recognize emotion in others, the underlying biological mechanisms remains elusive. This study uses a multimethod approach to target the neurological substrates of this phenomenon in a well-phenotyped sample of youth meeting diagnostic criteria for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Twenty-one PTSD-afflicted youth and 23 typically developing (TD) controls completed clinical interview schedules, an emotion recognition task with eye-tracking, and an implicit emotion processing task during functional magnetic resonance imaging )fMRI). PTSD was associated with decreased accuracy in identification of angry, disgust, and neutral faces as compared to TD youth. Of note, these impairments occurred despite the normal deployment of visual attention in youth with PTSD relative to TD youth. Correlation with a related fMRI task revealed a group by accuracy interaction for amygdala–hippocampus functional connectivity (FC) for angry expressions, where TD youth showed a positive relationship between anger accuracy and amygdala–hippocampus FC; this relationship was reversed in youth with PTSD. These findings are a novel characterization of impaired threat recognition within a well-phenotyped population of severe pediatric PTSD. Further, the differential amygdala–hippocampus FC identified in youth with PTSD may imply aberrant efficiency of emotional contextualization circuits.

Threat recognition and response in an avian brood-parasite host from New Caledonia

Nest predation and avian brood parasitism are the main sources of nest failure in many passerine birds. Large predators threaten both brood and parents, whereas brood parasites pose only a danger to eggs or nestlings. The fan-tailed gerygone Gerygone flavolateralis from New Caledonia is subjected to high rates of nest predation by the New Caledonian crow Corvus moneduloides (responsible for about 20–40% of predation) and moderate rates of brood parasitism by the shining bronze-cuckoo Chalcites lucidus (parasitizing about 18% of nests), which also depredates nests that are too advanced for parasitism (13% of nests). To test if fan-tailed gerygones are able to discriminate predators from brood parasites, we presented 3 bird models at active gerygone nests: a brood parasite/small nest predator (shining bronze-cuckoo), a large nest predator (crow), and a small non-native bird (common chaffinch Fringilla coelebs), which is unknown to the gerygone, as a control. We assessed the response of adult gerygones to the presentation of each model by measuring the minimum approach distance, number of alarm calls, number of attacks, and time to first nest visit after the presentation (latency). Adult gerygones often attacked the cuckoo, approached but never attacked the chaffinch and always avoided the crow. Latency was shorter after an attack response and during brooding, but similar among models. We did not find any link between the cuckoo model presentation and later ejection of cuckoo nestlings. We conclude that adult fan-tailed gerygones discriminate between different models and respond accordingly to the level of threat, but do not show awareness of parasitism risk and increase of nestling ejection rates following exposure to the cuckoo model.