Armenian leader wins polls but more reliant on Russia

Significance Pashinyan has won despite numerous reverses, chief among them the disastrous war in Nagorno-Karabakh of September-November 2020. Civil Contract's unexpectedly wide margin of victory in the June 20 parliamentary election drew allegations of ballot-rigging. Impacts Pashinyan's orders to police to avoid violence against protesters should reduce the risk of street unrest. Western election observers may wish to review methods: this is the second time, after Georgia, their judgement clashes with the opposition. Net emigration has risen this year and its scale presents threats to economic growth.

Predicting the winning percentage of limited-overs cricket using the pythagorean formula

The Pythagorean Win-Loss formula can be effectively used to estimate winning percentages for sporting events. This formula was initially developed by baseball statistician Bill James and later was extended by other researchers to sports such as football, basketball, and ice hockey. Although one can calculate actual winning percentages based on the outcomes of played games, that approach does not take into account the margin of victory. The key benefit of the Pythagorean formula is its utilization of actual average runs scored and actual average runs allowed. This article presents the application of the Pythagorean Win-Loss formula to two different types of limited-overs cricket formats, namely One Day International cricket (ODI) and Twenty20 cricket. The data for the application was used from the matches played by the top 10 International Cricket Council (ICC) members who participated in the 2019 ICC Cricket World Cup. For matches for which the second batting team won, runs scored were estimated by considering the remaining amount of resources, based on the Duckworth–Lewis method.

Refining Tournament Solutions via Margin of Victory

Tournament solutions are frequently used to select winners from a set of alternatives based on pairwise comparisons between alternatives. Prior work has shown that several common tournament solutions tend to select large winner sets and therefore have low discriminative power. In this paper, we propose a general framework for refining tournament solutions. In order to distinguish between winning alternatives, and also between non-winning ones, we introduce the notion of margin of victory (MoV) for tournament solutions. MoV is a robustness measure for individual alternatives: For winners, the MoV captures the distance from dropping out of the winner set, and for non-winners, the distance from entering the set. In each case, distance is measured in terms of which pairwise comparisons would have to be reversed in order to achieve the desired outcome. For common tournament solutions, including the top cycle, the uncovered set, and the Banks set, we determine the complexity of computing the MoV and provide worst-case bounds on the MoV for both winners and non-winners. Our results can also be viewed from the perspective of bribery and manipulation.

The Importance of Florida in Presidential Elections

Since 1996, Florida has become the most important state in presidential elections. It has the most electoral votes of any battleground state and the third most among all states. It actually swings between the major parties, has supported the overall winner six campaigns in a row (one of only two states to do so), and its margin of victory for the winner over that period is the smallest of any state. In addition, pre-election polls consistently predict the Sunshine State will be very close, and presidential candidates act strategically by visiting frequently and by spending larger sums on campaign advertising in Florida than in any other state.

Congo's flawed polls pose dangerous dilemmas

Significance Runner-up Martin Fayulu immediately denounced the results as an “electoral coup” and by mid-morning an influential body representing Congo’s Catholic bishops, the National Episcopal Conference of the Congo (CENCO), said the results do not tally with its own count from its roughly 40,000 observers. Impacts The responses of regional states will carry much greater weight than the reactions of Western powers. Legislative results, yet to be announced, will have a significant impact on the balance of power. The 1.2 million voters excluded in Beni, Butembo and Yumbi could become a key issue, as this is more than Tshisekedi’s margin of victory.

The accuracy of FiveThirtyEight's 2018 midterm election predictions: an exploratory analysis

This study compares the predictions made by FiveThirtyEight's "Deluxe" forecasts in the 2018 United States midterm elections to the elections' actual results. It does so using two measures of polling error: difference between actual and predicted percent of the vote received by the Democratic candidate, and difference between actual and predicted margin of victory, in each race. Results indicate that the predictions were generally accurate, and that to the extent that they were not, this inaccuracy showed moderate evidence of being systematically skewed towards the Democratic candidate, overestimating their actual performance.