Larger Democratic swings in United States counties with Black Lives Matter protests in preliminary results of the 2020 presidential election

Media commentary has suggested that recent Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests, particularly riots, drove voters, particularly Hispanic voters, away from Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the 2020 US presidential election. I test these hypotheses with county-level regression models of 2016-to-2020 swing towards the Democratic presidential candidate, using the presence and intensity of BLM non-riot protests and riots as regressors, controlling for state and many background demographic factors (population density, household size, racial composition, etc.). The models (generalized additive models) that control most aggressively for background factors find small and positive associations between BLM protests and Democratic swing: counties with non-riot BLM protests swung more towards Joe Biden by 0.2 percentage points, and counties with BLM-associated riots swung more towards Joe Biden by (a statistically insignificant) 0.1 percentage points. The extra BLM-protest swing was not statistically significantly different in counties with relatively many Hispanic voting-age citizens, although it was weaker in counties with relatively many Asian voting-age citizens. Inasmuch as these results reflect causal impacts of BLM protests, the protests enhanced the Democratic swing but were probably not electorally decisive. My most elaborate model suggests that a lack of BLM protests in 2020 would have flipped only one state: Biden might have narrowly lost Arizona.

Choosing a Candidate: Traits, Issues, and Electability

This research investigates the roles of issues, traits, and electability in the 2020 U.S. presidential nominating contest. These analyses utilize survey data gathered at political rallies in Iowa leading up to the caucuses and state and national news coverage. First, we identified the traits and issues respondents used to describe their support for a particular Democratic candidate over others. Next, we determined how issues, traits, and electability differed among the candidates. Finally, an analysis of news coverage uncovered how each candidate’s electability was framed. We found supporters of moderate candidates were more likely to mention candidate traits as reasons for their support, whereas supporters of progressive candidates were more likely to mention issues. Despite the media focus on electability, respondents did not indicate that as a primary reason for supporting a candidate. State and national news coverage treated the electability of Democrats vying for the party nomination quite differently, depending on the candidate’s gender and ideology.

OECD and EU cannot count on Biden backing digital tax

Significance Signs that Democratic candidate Joe Biden is likely to secure a narrow victory in the US presidential election will boost the Commission’s hopes for global consensus and better transatlantic dialogue on digital taxes. Impacts Despite Brexit, the United Kingdom will support EU calls for a digital tax. The list of countries imposing unilateral digital taxes will continue to grow as pandemic-induced recession bites. The precise bipartisan balance of the US Senate will determine the extent of tech-related policy changes under Biden.

Educational Policy in the Post-racial Era: Federal Influence on Local Educational Policy in Hawaii

On March 27, 2008, Newsweek ran an article titled, “Obama’s Postracial Test: How will the Democratic Candidate Deal with Potentially Divisive Ballot Initiatives Calling for an End to Affirmative Action?” And, the August 6, 2008 issue of the New York Times Magazine featured an article titled, “Is Obama the End of Black Politics?” Since then, writers from the right and left have raised and challenged the idea that the election of Barack Obama somehow signals a new, post-racial era and presidency. But what does this mean for Hawaii? With its unique racial diversity and its connection to Obama, might Hawaii somehow represent the first post-racial state? And, does this mean anything for the way education is run in that state? In addressing these questions, this paper looks carefully at the Obama Administration’s recent education initiative called the Race to the Top Fund and examines its implications for education in Hawaii.

The behaviour of US investors during presidential elections

PurposeThis study examines the influence of the presidential elections on the behaviour of US investors according to the trading activity of two of the most popular investment vehicles: exchange-traded funds and close-ended funds.Design/methodology/approachBased on the fact that investors in these two investment vehicles differ by, at least, two demographic factors that influence investment decisions, age and labour status, inferences are made about the degree of interest and the amount of trading activity that presidential elections provoke.FindingsThe evidence demonstrates that, during the last four US presidential elections, exchange-traded funds' investors trade significantly more than close-ended funds' investors during several event windows centred on the day of an election in which a republican candidate is elected. Close-ended funds' investors are more active during the election of a democratic candidate, although the statistical evidence in that regard is weak. Thus, it appears reasonable to conclude that younger investors who are gainfully employed are induced to trade by a presidential election in which a republican candidate prevails. Apparently, a democratic victory does not provoke the same behaviour.Originality/valueAlthough the relation between politics and economics is not an unexplored topic, it is not clear whether the presidential elections themselves constitute an event that triggers the trading behaviour of investors.

EU global regulatory influence faces rising challenges

Significance However, the economic and geopolitical environment which facilitated its global regulatory success is changing. Impacts The EU’s unprecedented economic recovery plan should strengthen unity and give it confidence to act stronger on the global stage. Political values will play an increasingly prominent role in shaping the bloc’s relationship with countries such as China. The election of Democratic candidate Joe Biden will not guarantee closer regulatory ties between the United States and the EU.

European Union ‒ USA: On the Way to a “New Normality”

The article analyzes the state of relations between transatlantic partners in the context of the presidential campaign in the United States, and also attempts to predict their development after November 2020.The presidency of D. Trump thoroughly shook the foundations of Euro-Atlantic solidarity. This applies to the parties' adherence to democratic values (Trump does not hide his sympathy for European leaders with a penchant for authoritarianism), and also applies to the interaction of the US and the EU in the trade, economic and military fields. While most European elites prefer the Democratic candidate Biden to win the presidential election, many analysts believe that his probable arrival in the White House will hardly change much. Transatlantic relations have already entered a stage of serious transformation. We can witness the emergence of a “new normal” in transatlantic relations, accepted by Brussels on the one hand and, apparently, by Biden's team, on the other. It is designed to reduce the previous scale of the EU's dependence on the United States in the field of defense, while fixing issues in relation where the approaches of the allies may not completely coincide or even differ significantly (a striking example is the fate of the “Nord Stream 2”). If implemented, this model of relations may prevent the emergence of new lines of tension between allies in the transatlantic partnership.

Washington View: The Biden education plan

As the Trump administration was pressuring schools to reopen in the fall, Democratic candidate Joe Biden released his plan for education. Maria Ferguson sees his focus on the most pressing needs of students, families, and educators as a refreshing change. She reviews some of the highlights of the Biden plan, including support for teachers, ideas for addressing inequities, an embrace of universal preK, and programs to support young families.

Testing and unpacking the effects of digital fake news: on presidential candidate evaluations and voter support

There is growing worldwide concern that the rampant spread of digital fake news (DFN) via new media technologies is detrimentally impacting Democratic elections. However, the actual influence of this recent Internet phenomenon on electoral decisions has not been directly examined. Accordingly, this study tested the effects of attention to DFN on readers’ Presidential candidate preferences via an experimental web-survey administered to a cross-sectional American sample (N = 552). Results showed no main effect of exposure to DFN on participants’ candidate evaluations or vote choice. However, the perceived believability of DFN about the Democratic candidate negatively mediated evaluations of that candidate—especially amongst far-right ideologues. These results suggest that DFN may at worst reinforce the partisan dispositions of mostly politically conservative Internet users, but does not cause or induce conversions in these dispositions. Overall, this study contributes novel experimental evidence, indicating that the potential electoral impact of DFN, although concerning, is strongly conditional on a reciprocal interaction between message receptibility and a pre-existing right-wing ideological orientation. The said impact is, therefore, likely narrow in scope.

Losing Elections, Winning the Debate: Progressive Racial Rhetoric and White Backlash

Recent years have seen liberals moving sharply to the left on issues related to race and gender, the so-called “Great Awokening,” accompanied by commentary arguing that this has led to a popular backlash against the left. Through a preregistered survey, this study polls a representative sample of white Americans to test the effect of a Democratic candidate, Kirsten Gillibrand, arguing for programs designed to help blacks and declaring the significance of white privilege in American life. Our results show that statements about white privilege decrease support for the candidate, with an effect size that is about equal to a one standard deviation shift to the right in ideology. The effect is concentrated among moderates and conservatives. Advocating reparations and affirmative action has a similar but smaller effect. At the same time, arguing for reparations actually increases support for such policies, and discussing white privilege may decrease some aspects of white identity among conservatives. The results indicate that taking more liberal positions on race causes white voters to punish a Democratic candidate. However, there is no evidence for the hypothesis that white Americans move to the right in response to such rhetoric or develop stronger feelings of white identity.