Labor Unions and Voter Turnout in the American States: Direct Versus Indirect Mobilization

I examine the relationship between labor unions and voter turnout in the American states. Though it is well known that unions increase turnout directly, we know less about their indirect effects. Moreover, the indirect effects may consist of nonmember mobilization and aggregate strength. To examine the direct and indirect mechanisms, I analyze both state-level panel data and individual-level data with a multilevel approach. First, my panel analysis shows that unions are positively associated with turnout as expected. Yet, the association is observed only in midterm elections, but not in presidential elections. Second, more importantly, my individual-level analysis suggests that indirect nonmember mobilization and indirect aggregate strength are positively related to turnout, while direct member mobilization is not. The findings imply that the direct effects are limited and, thus, that decreasing levels of voter turnout due to recently declining union membership come primarily from indirect mobilization rather than direct mobilization.

Summit for Democracy raises more policy questions

Significance The online meeting, which included civil society groups and representatives from the business sector, was ostensibly a forum for considering strategies to bolster democratic institutions. However, it also offered implicit criticisms of China and Russia while playing to Biden’s domestic agenda, in particular efforts to strengthen voting rights and bolster social spending. Impacts The second summit is expected soon after the November 2022 US midterm elections, when further claims of electoral fraud are likely. Criticism of Washington’s choice of participants will spark calls for a multinational committee to set the invitation list. Controversy over Taiwan’s inclusion in the Summit for Democracy will increase during 2022.

Puerto Rico debt reduction plan moves toward approval

Significance The Board has now argued the case for federal endorsement of this latest version of the plan before the judge overseeing the process. The process has taken four years to reach this point, but a further delay is possible. Impacts Puerto Ricans will continue to leave the island given the ongoing uncertainties related to education, employment and healthcare. Despite some interest earlier this year, Congress is expected to make little progress on the island’s constitutional status in 2022. With 5 million Puerto Ricans registered to vote on the mainland, island issues will feature in some 2022 midterm elections.

Social media news deserts: Digital inequalities and incidental news exposure on social media platforms

Some people live in social media “news deserts,” while others are embedded in online networks that are rich in news content. These news deserts represent a new form of digital inequality—distinct from problems of access, resources, or civic skills—that could foreclose one of the ways social media are believed to contribute to informing citizens and engaging them in democratic processes: providing opportunities for incidental news exposure. This study investigates incidental exposure on social media platforms, drawing on an online survey administered just before the 2018 US Midterm Elections ( N = 1493). The study finds that even after controlling for key individual-level factors, characteristics of social media discussion networks play a role in explaining variation in incidental exposure. The results are discussed in light of prevailing theory about incidental exposure, public engagement, and digital inequalities.

Midterm polls will knock Argentine budget off course

Significance The debate has been delayed by November 14 midterm elections. However, the budget has already been criticised both by the opposition, which considers the forecasts excessively optimistic, and by Vice-President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) and her supporters, who believe fiscal tightening in the first half was responsible for the government’s poor performance in the August open primaries. Impacts The 2021 budget deficit will be narrower than initial expectations thanks to the sharp fiscal adjustment in the first half. Next year’s fiscal adjustment will involve cutting energy subsidies, prompting higher tariffs and inflation. Absent new foreign credit, increased Central Bank transfers to the Treasury could fuel an inflationary spiral.

Gulf-Iran diplomatic breakthroughs will be piecemeal

Significance He declined to confirm reports of a Saudi visit preparing to reopen diplomatic facilities closed in 2016, pending further progress. A fourth round of negotiations between Saudi and Iranian officials convened in September in the aftermath of the Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership which gathered regional leaders on August 28. Impacts Discounting the prospect of a breakthrough in US-Iran nuclear relations, regional officials will act more independently. Developments in Yemen are likely to undermine the Saudi-Emirati conviction that the Huthis are merely a proxy beholden to Iran. Foreign policy drift in the Biden administration may intensify as US political energy turns toward the 2022 congressional midterm elections.

California politics shows importance of local issues

Significance Two-thirds of those voting in the recall election on September 14 rejected the attempt to remove Newsom from office, but the result required a major effort to mobilise the Democratic base. The victory does not suggest that the party has an effective strategy for the 2022 midterm elections. Impacts The recall highlights that the escalating costs of US elections ensure that only those with deep funding can be competitive. Local conditions enabled Newsom to run on policy competence but in other elections ideological positions will carry more weight. With many voters under pressure to move away from traditional party loyalties, incumbents cannot take their support for granted.

Emotional politics: Moving and upsetting political ads on the motivation to support candidate and party

Political campaigning is an inherent part of politics to recruit support from voters. Video advertisement for a political candidate or party has been a widely used method for many years, distributed via television and online, including social media. This type of advertisement attempts to recruit support by presenting convincing arguments and evoking various emotions about the candidate, opponents, and policy proposals. In the present paper, we review existing work on what emotions are most prevalent, focusing particularly on anger and enthusiasm. We discuss recent arguments and evidence that a specific social emotion, namely the concept kama muta, plays a role in political advertisements. In vernacular language, kama muta is typically labeled being moved or touched. Seminal video examples from the 2016 U.S. presidential campaigns are known to evoke this emotion. We compare anger and kama muta theoretically and discuss how they can influence voters’ willingness to support a candidate. We then, for the first time, compare kama muta and anger empirically in the same study. Specifically, we showed American participants short political ads from the 2018 U.S. midterm elections that either evoked anger or kama muta and came from either Democratic or Republican candidates. We assessed participants' degree of being angered and moved by the videos and their motivation for three types of political support: ideational, financial and personal. Participants were more angered by the selected anger-evoking videos and more moved by the selected moving videos of the party which they identified with more. They were also more motivated to support the advertised candidate and party in different ways if either emotion was elicited. If an emotion was evoked, its effect on political support was largely independent from the prior support for the party. In other words, elicitation, but not impact, of an emotion is moderated by prior social identification in the context of political advertisement. We discuss limitations of the method and implications of the results for future research and practice.