Rigged?

This chapter assesses how Florida’s county election administration performed in the 2016 general election.With allegations that vote totals are now “rigged,” the performance of the election administrators is crucial to maintaining election legitimacy and US democracy.

The I-4 Corridor

This chapter examines the critical political geography of Florida—the 130-mile expanse from Tampa on the west coast to Daytona Beach on the east coast known as the I-4 corridor.This mix of urban, suburban, and rural counties usually decides elections in Florida.

Trump Beats Florida’s Favorite Sons

This chapter dissects how a former governor (Jeb Bush) and a US senator (Marco Rubio) from Florida lost the primary election to Donald Trump. How Trump’s outsider campaign overwhelmed the early favorites in the state is explained.

Conclusion

This chapter summarizes why Florida was so critical to the Donald Trump victory in the 2016 presidential election.Trump’s outsider campaign dominated the state in the primary and was enough to win the general election.

Trump Territory

This chapter assesses changes in presidential election returns at the Florida county level between 2012 and 2016. Florida has been a perennial swing state since 1992, and it was once again a toss-up in 2016 when Republican Donald Trump narrowly defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton. We show that, with respect to density, Democratic presidential nominees fare much better in Florida’s most urban counties whereas Republican candidates are much stronger in the greater number of counties with less metropolitan population.

Early Bird Special

This chapter examines how Floridians have changed their voting habits in the recent elections to rely heavily on early in-person voting and absentee voting.A majority of Floridians now vote before election day in general elections.

The Hispanic Vote in Florida 2016

This chapter explores the varied nature of the Hispanic vote in the State of Florida.Hispanic voters make up about 18 percent of the turnout in the state.Even with the harsh rhetoric of the Trump campaign, the Clinton campaign did not accomplish a clean sweep of the Hispanic vote in the state.

The Importance of Florida in Presidential Elections

Since 1996, Florida has become the most important state in presidential elections. It has the most electoral votes of any battleground state and the third most among all states. It actually swings between the major parties, has supported the overall winner six campaigns in a row (one of only two states to do so), and its margin of victory for the winner over that period is the smallest of any state. In addition, pre-election polls consistently predict the Sunshine State will be very close, and presidential candidates act strategically by visiting frequently and by spending larger sums on campaign advertising in Florida than in any other state.

Introduction

This book is an examination of how the Trump campaign won Floridain 2016. Florida, a perennial battleground state, was a microcosm of hisnational victory. Trump secured suburban and Republican voters thatmany thought would abandon him; white voters overwhelming supportedhim; and even Hispanic voters cast some ballots for the controversial candidate.With Election Day expectations overturned, there is still a sense ofshock at the chaos that has continued from the campaign into Trump’sadministration. While few have been able to successfully predict anythingabout the 2016 presidential election and the ensuing administration, we hopeto provide a thorough explanation of what happened and why.