Predicting temperature curve based on fast kNN local linear estimation of the conditional distribution function

Predicting the yearly curve of the temperature, based on meteorological data, is essential for understanding the impact of climate change on humans and the environment. The standard statistical models based on the big data discretization in the finite grid suffer from certain drawbacks such as dimensionality when the size of the data is large. We consider, in this paper, the predictive region problem in functional time series analysis. We study the prediction by the shortest conditional modal interval constructed by the local linear estimation of the cumulative function of $Y$ given functional input variable $X$. More precisely, we combine the $k$-Nearest Neighbors procedure to the local linear algorithm to construct two estimators of the conditional distribution function. The main purpose of this paper is to compare, by a simulation study, the efficiency of the two estimators concerning the level of dependence. The feasibility of these estimators in the functional times series prediction is examined at the end of this paper. More precisely, we compare the shortest conditional modal interval predictive regions of both estimators using real meteorological data.

Smooth kNN Local Linear Estimation of the Conditional Distribution Function

Previous works were dedicated to the functional k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) and the local linearity method estimations of a regression operator. In this paper, a sequence pair of (Xi,Yi)i=1,…,n of functional mixing observations are considered. We treat the local linear estimation of the cumulative function of Yi given functional input variable Xi. Precisely, we combine the kNN method with the local linear algorithm to construct a new and fast efficiency estimator of the conditional distribution function. The main purpose of this paper is to prove the strong convergence of the constructed estimator under mixing conditions. An application to the functional times series prediction is used to compare our proposed estimator with the existing competitive estimators, and show its efficiency and superiority.

Asymptotic normality of conditional distribution estimation in the single index model

This paper deals with the estimation of conditional distribution function based on the single-index model. The asymptotic normality of the conditional distribution estimator is established. Moreover, as an application, the asymptotic (1 − γ) confidence interval of the conditional distribution function is given for 0 < γ < 1.