Final Moments. I. Precursor Emission, Envelope Inflation, and Enhanced Mass Loss Preceding the Luminous Type II Supernova 2020tlf

We present panchromatic observations and modeling of supernova (SN) 2020tlf, the first normal Type II-P/L SN with confirmed precursor emission, as detected by the Young Supernova Experiment transient survey. Pre-SN activity was detected in riz-bands at −130 days and persisted at relatively constant flux until first light. Soon after discovery, “flash” spectroscopy of SN 2020tlf revealed narrow, symmetric emission lines that resulted from the photoionization of circumstellar material (CSM) shed in progenitor mass-loss episodes before explosion. Surprisingly, this novel display of pre-SN emission and associated mass loss occurred in a red supergiant (RSG) progenitor with zero-age main-sequence mass of only 10–12 M ⊙, as inferred from nebular spectra. Modeling of the light curve and multi-epoch spectra with the non-LTE radiative-transfer code CMFGEN and radiation-hydrodynamical code HERACLES suggests a dense CSM limited to r ≈ 1015 cm, and mass-loss rate of 10−2 M ⊙ yr−1. The luminous light-curve plateau and persistent blue excess indicates an extended progenitor, compatible with an RSG model with R ⋆ = 1100 R ⊙. Limits on the shock-powered X-ray and radio luminosity are consistent with model conclusions and suggest a CSM density of ρ < 2 × 10−16 g cm−3 for distances from the progenitor star of r ≈ 5 × 1015 cm, as well as a mass-loss rate of M ̇ < 1.3 × 10 − 5 M ☉ yr − 1 at larger distances. A promising power source for the observed precursor emission is the ejection of stellar material following energy disposition into the stellar envelope as a result of gravity waves emitted during either neon/oxygen burning or a nuclear flash from silicon combustion.

Supersonic Expansion of the Bipolar H ii Region Sh2-106: A 3500 Year Old Explosion?

Multi-epoch narrowband Hubble Space Telescope images of the bipolar H ii region Sh2-106 reveal highly supersonic nebular proper motions that increase with projected distance from the massive young stellar object S106 IR, reaching over ∼30 mas yr−1 (∼150 km s−1 at D = 1.09 kpc) at a projected separation of ∼1.′4 (0.44 pc) from S106 IR. We propose that S106 IR experienced a ∼1047 erg explosion ∼3500 yr ago. The explosion may be the result of a major accretion burst or a recent encounter with another star, or a consequence of the interaction of a companion with the bloated photosphere of S106 IR as it grew from ∼10 through ∼15 M ⊙ at a high accretion rate. Near-IR images reveal fingers of H2 emission pointing away from S106 IR and an asymmetric photon-dominated region surrounding the ionized nebula. Radio continuum and Brγ emission reveal a C-shaped bend in the plasma, indicating either the motion of S106 IR toward the east, or the deflection of plasma toward the west by the surrounding cloud. The H ii region bends around a ∼1′ diameter dark bay west of S106 IR that may be shielded from direct illumination by a dense molecular clump. Herbig–Haro and Molecular Hydrogen Objects tracing outflows powered by stars in the Sh2-106 protocluster such as the Class 0 source S106 FIR are discussed.

Searching for Gravitationally Lensed Gamma-Ray Bursts with Their Afterglows

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) at high redshifts are expected to be gravitationally lensed by objects of different mass scales. Other than a single recent claim, no lensed GRB has been detected so far by using gamma-ray data only. In this paper, we suggest that multiband afterglow data might be an efficient way to search for lensed GRB events. Using the standard afterglow model, we calculate the characteristics of the lensed afterglow lightcurves under the assumption of two popular analytic lens models: the point-mass and singular isothermal sphere models. In particular, when different lensed images cannot be resolved, their signals would be superimposed together with a given time delay. In this case, the X-ray afterglows are likely to contain several X-ray flares of similar width in linear scale and similar spectrum, and the optical afterglow lightcurve will show re-brightening signatures. Since the lightcurves from the image arriving later would be compressed and deformed in the logarithmic timescale, the larger time delay (i.e., the larger mass of the lens), the easier it is to identify the lensing effect. We analyzed the archival data of optical afterglows and found one potential candidate of the lensed GRB (130831A) with time delay ∼500 s; however, observations of this event in gamma-ray and X-ray bands seem not to support the lensing hypothesis. In the future, with the cooperation of the all-sky monitoring gamma-ray detectors and multiband sky survey projects, the method proposed in this paper would be more efficient in searching for strongly lensed GRBs.

Core-collapse Supernova Simulations and the Formation of Neutron Stars, Hybrid Stars, and Black Holes

We investigate observable signatures of a first-order quantum chromodynamics (QCD) phase transition in the context of core-collapse supernovae. To this end, we conduct axially symmetric numerical relativity simulations with multi-energy neutrino transport, using a hadron–quark hybrid equation of state (EOS). We consider four nonrotating progenitor models, whose masses range from 9.6 to 70 M ⊙. We find that the two less-massive progenitor stars (9.6 and 11.2 M ⊙) show a successful explosion, which is driven by the neutrino heating. They do not undergo the QCD phase transition and leave behind a neutron star. As for the more massive progenitor stars (50 and 70 M ⊙), the proto-neutron star (PNS) core enters the phase transition region and experiences the second collapse. Because of a sudden stiffening of the EOS entering to the pure quark matter regime, a strong shock wave is formed and blows off the PNS envelope in the 50 M ⊙ model. Consequently the remnant becomes a quark core surrounded by hadronic matter, leading to the formation of the hybrid star. However, for the 70 M ⊙ model, the shock wave cannot overcome the continuous mass accretion and it readily becomes a black hole. We find that the neutrino and gravitational wave (GW) signals from supernova explosions driven by the hadron–quark phase transition are detectable for the present generation of neutrino and GW detectors. Furthermore, the analysis of the GW detector response reveals unique kHz signatures, which will allow us to distinguish this class of supernova explosions from failed and neutrino-driven explosions.

Convection and Dynamo in Newly Born Neutron Stars

To study properties of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) convection and resultant dynamo activities in proto-neutron stars (PNSs), we construct a “PNS in a box” simulation model and solve the compressible MHD equation coupled with a nuclear equation of state (EOS) and simplified leptonic transport. As a demonstration, we apply it to two types of PNS model with different internal structures: a fully convective model and a spherical-shell convection model. By varying the spin rate of the models, the rotational dependence of convection and the dynamo that operate inside the PNS is investigated. We find that, as a consequence of turbulent transport by rotating stratified convection, large-scale structures of flow and thermodynamic fields are developed in all models. Depending on the spin rate and the depth of the convection zone, various profiles of the large-scale structures are obtained, which can be physically understood as steady-state solutions to the “mean-field” equation of motion. Additionally to those hydrodynamic structures, a large-scale magnetic component of  ( 10 15 ) G is also spontaneously organized in disordered tangled magnetic fields in all models. The higher the spin rate, the stronger the large-scale magnetic component grows. Intriguingly, as an overall trend, the fully convective models have a stronger large-scale magnetic component than that in the spherical-shell convection models. The deeper the convection zone extends, the larger the size of the convective eddies becomes. As a result, rotationally constrained convection seems to be more easily achieved in the fully convective model, resulting in a higher efficiency of the large-scale dynamo there. To gain a better understanding of the origin of the diversity of a neutron star’s magnetic field, we need to study the PNS dynamo in a wider parameter range.

Variable Ion Compositions of Solar Energetic Particle Events in the Inner Heliosphere: A Field Line Braiding Model with Compound Injections

We propose a model for interpreting highly variable ion composition ratios in solar energetic particle (SEP) events recently observed by the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) at 0.3–0.45 au. We use numerical simulations to calculate SEP propagation in a turbulent interplanetary magnetic field with a Kolmogorov power spectrum from large scales down to the gyration scale of energetic particles. We show that when the source regions of different species are offset by a distance comparable to the size of the source regions, the observed energetic particle composition He/H can be strongly variable over more than two orders of magnitude, even if the source ratio is at the nominal value. Assuming a 3He/4He source ratio of 10% in impulsive 3He-rich events and the same spatial offset of the source regions, the 3He/4He ratio at observation sites also vary considerably. The variability of the ion composition ratios depends on the radial distance, which can be tested by observations made at different radial locations. We discuss the implications of these results on the variability of ion composition of impulsive events and on further PSP and Solar Orbiter observations close to the Sun.

The Warm Gas in the Milky Way: The Kinematical Model of C iv and Its Connection to Si iv

We compose a 265-sight-line Milky Way C iv line-shape sample using the Hubble Space Telescope/Cosmic Origins Spectrograph archive, which is complementary to the existing Si iv samples. C iv has a higher ionization potential (47–64 eV) than Si iv (33–45 eV), so it also traces warm gas, which is roughly cospatial with Si iv. The spatial density distribution and kinematics of C iv are identical to those Si iv within ≈2σ. C iv is more sensitive to the warm gas density distribution at large radii with a higher element abundance. Applying the kinematical model to the C iv sample, we find two possible solutions of the density distribution, which are distinguished by the relative extension along the disk midplane and the normal-line direction. Both solutions can reproduce the existing sample and suggest a warm gas disk mass of log M ( M ⊙ ) ≈ 8 and an upper limit of log M ( M ⊙ ) < 9.3 within 250 kpc, which is consistent with Si iv. There is a decrease in the C iv/Si iv column density ratio from the Galactic center to the outskirts by 0.2–0.3 dex, which may suggest a phase transition or different ionization mechanisms for C iv and Si iv. Also, we find that the difference between C iv and Si iv is an excellent tracer of small-scale features, and we find a typical size of 5°–10° for possible turbulence within individual clouds (≈1 kpc).

The Black Hole Mass Function Across Cosmic Times. I. Stellar Black Holes and Light Seed Distribution

This is the first paper in a series aimed at modeling the black hole (BH) mass function, from the stellar to the intermediate to the (super)massive regime. In the present work, we focus on stellar BHs and provide an ab initio computation of their mass function across cosmic times; we mainly consider the standard, and likely dominant, production channel of stellar-mass BHs constituted by isolated single/binary star evolution. Specifically, we exploit the state-of-the-art stellar and binary evolutionary code SEVN, and couple its outputs with redshift-dependent galaxy statistics and empirical scaling relations involving galaxy metallicity, star formation rate and stellar mass. The resulting relic mass function dN / dVd log m • as a function of the BH mass m • features a rather flat shape up to m • ≈ 50 M ⊙ and then a log-normal decline for larger masses, while its overall normalization at a given mass increases with decreasing redshift. We highlight the contribution to the local mass function from isolated stars evolving into BHs and from binary stellar systems ending up in single or binary BHs. We also include the distortion on the mass function induced by binary BH mergers, finding that it has a minor effect at the high-mass end. We estimate a local stellar BH relic mass density of ρ • ≈ 5 × 107 M ⊙ Mpc−3, which exceeds by more than two orders of magnitude that in supermassive BHs; this translates into an energy density parameter Ω• ≈ 4 × 10−4, implying that the total mass in stellar BHs amounts to ≲1% of the local baryonic matter. We show how our mass function for merging BH binaries compares with the recent estimates from gravitational wave observations by LIGO/Virgo, and discuss the possible implications for dynamical formation of BH binaries in dense environments like star clusters. We address the impact of adopting different binary stellar evolution codes (SEVN and COSMIC) on the mass function, and find the main differences to occur at the high-mass end, in connection with the numerical treatment of stellar binary evolution effects. We highlight that our results can provide a firm theoretical basis for a physically motivated light seed distribution at high redshift, to be implemented in semi-analytic and numerical models of BH formation and evolution. Finally, we stress that the present work can constitute a starting point to investigate the origin of heavy seeds and the growth of (super)massive BHs in high-redshift star-forming galaxies, that we will pursue in forthcoming papers.

Late-time Evolution and Modeling of the Off-axis Gamma-Ray Burst Candidate FIRST J141918.9+394036

We present new radio and optical data, including very-long-baseline interferometry, as well as archival data analysis, for the luminous, decades-long radio transient FIRST J141918.9+394036. The radio data reveal a synchrotron self-absorption peak around 0.3 GHz and a radius of around 1.3 mas (0.5 pc) 26 yr post-discovery, indicating a blastwave energy ∼5 × 1050 erg. The optical spectrum shows a broad [O iii]λ4959,5007 emission line that may indicate collisional excitation in the host galaxy, but its association with the transient cannot be ruled out. The properties of the host galaxy are suggestive of a massive stellar progenitor that formed at low metallicity. Based on the radio light curve, blastwave velocity, energetics, nature of the host galaxy and transient rates, we find that the properties of J1419+3940 are most consistent with long gamma-ray burst (LGRB) afterglows. Other classes of (optically discovered) stellar explosions as well as neutron star mergers are disfavored, and invoking any exotic scenario may not be necessary. It is therefore likely that J1419+3940 is an off-axis LGRB afterglow (as suggested by Law et al. and Marcote et al.), and under this premise the inverse beaming fraction is found to be f b − 1 ≃ 280 − 200 + 700 , corresponding to an average jet half-opening angle < θ j > ≃ 5 − 2 + 4 degrees (68% confidence), consistent with previous estimates. From the volumetric rate we predict that surveys with the Very Large Array, Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder, and MeerKAT will find a handful of J1419+3940-like events over the coming years.

A Novel Bimodal Forecasting Model for Solar Cycle 25

In this paper, a novel bimodal model to predict a complete sunspot cycle based on comprehensive precursor information is proposed. We compare the traditional 13 month moving average with the Gaussian filter and find that the latter has less missing information and can better describe the overall trend of the raw data. Unlike the previous models that usually only use one precursor, here we combine the implicit and geometric information of the solar cycle (peak and skewness of the previous cycle and start value of the predicted cycle) with the traditional precursor method based on the geomagnetic index and adopt a multivariate linear approach with a higher goodness of fit (>0.85) in the fitting. Verifications for cycles 22–24 demonstrate that the model has good performance in predicting the peak and peak occurrence time. It also successfully predicts the complete bimodal structure for cycle 22 and cycle 24, showing a certain ability to predict whether the next solar cycle is unimodal or bimodal. It shows that cycle 25 is a single-peak structure and that the peak will come in 2024 October with a peak of 145.3.