Probabilistic Temporal Networks with Ordinary Distributions: Theory, Robustness and Expected Utility

Most existing works in Probabilistic Simple Temporal Networks (PSTNs) base their frameworks on well-defined, parametric probability distributions. Under the operational contexts of both strong and dynamic control, this paper addresses robustness measure of PSTNs, i.e. the execution success probability, where the probability distributions of the contingent durations are ordinary, not necessarily parametric, nor symmetric (e.g. histograms, PERT), as long as these can be discretized. In practice, one would obtain ordinary distributions by considering empirical observations (compiled as histograms), or even hand-drawn by field experts. In this new realm of PSTNs, we study and formally define concepts such as degree of weak/strong/dynamic controllability, robustness under a predefined dispatching protocol, and introduce the concept of PSTN expected execution utility. We also discuss the limitation of existing controllability levels, and propose new levels within dynamic controllability, to better characterize dynamic controllable PSTNs based on based practical complexity considerations. We propose a novel fixed-parameter pseudo-polynomial time computation method to obtain both the success probability and expected utility measures. We apply our computation method to various PSTN datasets, including realistic planetary exploration scenarios in the context of the Mars 2020 rover. Moreover, we propose additional original applications of the method.

Robustness Computation of Dynamic Controllability in Probabilistic Temporal Networks with Ordinary Distributions

Most existing works in Probabilistic Simple Temporal Networks (PSTNs) base their frameworks on well-defined probability distributions. This paper addresses on PSTN Dynamic Controllability (DC) robustness measure, i.e. the execution success probability of a network under dynamic control. We consider PSTNs where the probability distributions of the contingent edges are ordinary distributed (e.g. non-parametric, non-symmetric). We introduce the concepts of dispatching protocol (DP) as well as DP-robustness, the probability of success under a predefined dynamic policy. We propose a fixed-parameter pseudo-polynomial time algorithm to compute the exact DP-robustness of any PSTN under NextFirst protocol, and apply to various PSTN datasets, including the real case of planetary exploration in the context of the Mars 2020 rover, and propose an original structural analysis.

Dynamic Control of Probabilistic Simple Temporal Networks

The controllability of a temporal network is defined as an agent's ability to navigate around the uncertainty in its schedule and is well-studied for certain networks of temporal constraints. However, many interesting real-world problems can be better represented as Probabilistic Simple Temporal Networks (PSTNs) in which the uncertain durations are represented using potentially-unbounded probability density functions. This can make it inherently impossible to control for all eventualities. In this paper, we propose two new dynamic controllability algorithms that attempt to maximize the likelihood of successfully executing a schedule within a PSTN. The first approach, which we call Min-Loss DC, finds a dynamic scheduling strategy that minimizes loss of control by using a conflict-directed search to decide where to sacrifice the control in a way that optimizes overall success. The second approach, which we call Max-Gain DC, works in the other direction: it finds a dynamically controllable schedule and then attempts to progressively strengthen it by capturing additional uncertainty. Our approaches are the first known that work by finding maximally dynamically controllable schedules. We empirically compare our approaches against two existing PSTN offline dispatch approaches and one online approach and show that our Min-Loss DC algorithm outperforms the others in terms of maximizing execution success while maintaining competitive runtimes.

Faster Dynamic Controllability Checking in Temporal Networks with Integer Bounds

Simple Temporal Networks with Uncertainty (STNUs) provide a useful formalism with which to reason about events and the temporal constraints that apply to them. STNUs are in particular notable because they facilitate reasoning over stochastic, or uncontrollable, actions and their corresponding durations. To evaluate the feasibility of a set of constraints associated with an STNU, one checks the network's \textit{dynamic controllability}, which determines whether an adaptive schedule can be constructed on-the-fly. Our work improves the runtime of checking the dynamic controllability of STNUs with integer bounds to O(min(mn, m sqrt(n) log N) + km + k^2n + kn log n). Our approach pre-processes the STNU using an existing O(n^3) dynamic controllability checking algorithm and provides tighter bounds on its runtime. This makes our work easily adaptable to other algorithms that rely on checking variants of dynamic controllability.

Robustness Envelopes for Temporal Plans

To achieve practical execution, planners must produce temporal plans with some degree of run-time adaptability. Such plans can be expressed as Simple Temporal Networks (STN), that constrain the timing of action activations, and implicitly represent the space of choices for the plan executor.A first problem is to verify that all the executor choices allowed by the STN plan will be successful, i.e. the plan is valid. An even more important problem is to assess the effect of discrepancies between the model used for planning and the execution environment.We propose an approach to compute the “robustness envelope” (i.e., alternative action durations or resource consumption rates) of a given STN plan, for which the plan remains valid. Plans can have boolean and numeric variables as well as discrete and continuous change. We leverage Satisfiability Modulo Theories (SMT) to make the approach formal and practical.

Conditional Simple Temporal Networks with Uncertainty and Resources

Conditional simple temporal networks with uncertainty (CSTNUs) allow for the representation of temporal plans subject to both conditional constraints and uncertain durations. Dynamic controllability (DC) of CSTNUs ensures the existence of an execution strategy able to execute the network in real time (i.e., scheduling the time points under control) depending on how these two uncontrollable parts behave. However, CSTNUs do not deal with resources. In this paper, we define conditional simple temporal networks with uncertainty and resources (CSTNURs) by injecting resources and runtime resource constraints (RRCs) into the specification. Resources are mandatory for executing the time points and their availability is represented through temporal expressions, whereas RRCs restrict resource availability by further temporal constraints among resources. We provide a fully-automated encoding to translate any CSTNUR into an equivalent timed game automaton in polynomial time for a sound and complete DC-checking.