central bank credibility
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2021 ◽  
pp. 01-38
Author(s):  
Jens H. E. Christensen ◽  
◽  
Mark M. Spiegel ◽  

Japanese realized and expected inflation has been below the Bank of Japan’s two percent target for many years. We use the exogenous COVID-19 pandemic shock to examine the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policy responses for elevating inflation expectations from an arbitrage-free term structure model of nominal and real yields. We find that monetary and fiscal policy announcements during this period failed to lift inflation expectations, which instead declined notably and are projected to only slowly revert back to levels far below the announced target. Hence, our results illustrate the challenges faced in raising well-anchored low inflation expectations.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-39
Author(s):  
Stephen J. Cole ◽  
Enrique Martínez-García

Abstract This paper examines the effectiveness of forward guidance shocks in the US. We estimate a New Keynesian model with imperfect central bank credibility and heterogeneous expectations using Bayesian methods and survey data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The results provide important takeaways: (1) The estimated credibility of the Fed’s forward guidance announcements is relatively high, but anticipation effects are attenuated. Accordingly, output and inflation do not respond as favorably as in the fully credible counterfactual. (2) The so-called “forward guidance puzzle” arises partly from the unrealistically large responses of macroeconomic variables to forward guidance under perfect credibility and homogeneous fully informed rational expectations, assumptions which are found to be jointly inconsistent with the observed US data. (3) Imperfect credibility provides a plausible explanation for the empirical evidence of forecasting error predictability based on forecasting disagreement found in the SPF data. Thus, we show that accounting for imperfect credibility and forecasting disagreements is important to understand the formation of expectations and the transmission mechanism of forward guidance.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (201) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thitipat Chansriniyom ◽  
Natan Epstein ◽  
Valeriu Nalban

The paper extends a standard semi-structural model to account for nonlinear and asymmetric effects of monetary policy credibility. In our setting, central bank credibility is proportional to the deviation of inflation expectations from the announced inflation target, with positive deviations being more costly compared to negative ones. A loss in policy credibility as a result of shocks leads to a more persistent, backward-looking inflation process, and is associated with lower output. We find that the extended model with credibility effects matches well the key macroeconomic data over specific past episodes for Indonesia and Philippines and consider its adaptation to integrated policy frameworks as an area for further exploration.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 174-196
Author(s):  
Rakhmat Prabowo ◽  
Mohamad Ikhsan

This study is intended to explain the impact of central bank credibility on inflation in Indonesia at the producer and consumer level. In this study, Central Bank Credibility is measured using an index with values between 0 (zero credibility) and 1 (perfect credibility). Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method is used to analyze the impact of central bank credibility on inflation. Based on the results, central bank credibility can reduce inflation on both producer and consumer price. Central bank credibility is more sensitive towards producer price index compared to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) deflator and wholesale price index while at the consumer level, central bank credibility is more sensitive towards core inflation compared to headline inflation. -------------------------------------- Penelitian ini menjelaskan dampak kredibilitas Bank Sentral terhadap inflasi di Indonesia. Dampak kredibilitas Bank Sentral dianalisis pada tingkat produsen maupun konsumen. Untuk mengukur kredibilitas Bank Sentral, penelitian ini menggunakan indeks kredibilitas bernilai 0 (zero credibility) hingga 1 (perfect credibility). Metode Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) digunakan untuk menganalisis dampak kredibilitas Bank Sentral terhadap inflasi. Berdasarkan hasil empiris, kredibilitas Bank Sentral cenderung lebih memengaruhi inflasi pada Indeks Harga Produsen (IHP) dibandingkan Indeks Harga Perdagangan Besar (IHPB) dan deflator Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB). Kredibilitas Bank Sentral lebih memengaruhi inflasi inti dibandingkan dengan inflasi umum. Dari hasil empiris diketahui bahwa kredibilitas Bank Sentral lebih memengaruhi inflasi pada sisi produsen dibandingkan konsumen.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 56
Author(s):  
Yutaka Kurihara

Since the early 1990s, inflation targeting (IT) has been conducted in many countries and the number of the countries has been increasing rapidly. The outcomes of adopting IT has been discussed, however, the incentives of adopting IT is not fully examined. This study focuses on this issue empirically. The results are clearly divided into two types of countries. In developed countries, budget/GDP ratio, central bank credibility, exchange rate stability, and openness of the economy are deterministic elements of adopting IT, however interestingly, inflation itself does not play any roles of adopting IT. On the other hand, only inflation is the deterministic element of adopting IT in developing countries. Other elements, that are deterministic elements in developed countries, do not any effects on introducing IT. Moreover, countries would not like to limit the scope of policies when the economy’s openness is high.


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