New High-Resolution Modeling of the 2018 Palu Tsunami, Based on Supershear Earthquake Mechanisms and Mapped Coastal Landslides, Supports a Dual Source

The Mw 7.5 earthquake that struck Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, on September 28, 2018, was rapidly followed by coastal landslides and destructive tsunami waves within Palu Bay. Here, we present new tsunami modeling that supports a dual source mechanism from the supershear strike-slip earthquake and coastal landslides. Up until now the tsunami mechanism: earthquake, coastal landslides, or a combination of both, has remained controversial, because published research has been inconclusive; with some studies explaining most observations from the earthquake and others the landslides. Major challenges are the numerous different earthquake source models used in tsunami modeling, and that landslide mechanisms have been hypothetical. Here, we simulate tsunami generation using three published earthquake models, alone and in combination with seven coastal landslides identified in earlier work and confirmed by field and bathymetric evidence which, from video evidence, produced significant waves. To generate and propagate the tsunamis, we use a combination of two wave models, the 3D non-hydrostatic model NHWAVE and the 2D Boussinesq model FUNWAVE-TVD. Both models are nonlinear and address the physics of wave frequency dispersion critical in modeling tsunamis from landslides, which here, in NHWAVE are modeled as granular material. Our combined, earthquake and coastal landslide, simulations recreate all observed tsunami runups, except those in the southeast of Palu Bay where they were most elevated (10.5 m), as well as observations made in video recordings and at the Pantoloan Port tide gauge located within Palu Bay. With regard to the timing of tsunami impact on the coast, results from the dual landslide/earthquake sources, particularly those using the supershear earthquake models are in good agreement with reconstructed time series at most locations. Our new work shows that an additional tsunami mechanism is also necessary to explain the elevated tsunami observations in the southeast of Palu Bay. Using partial information from bathymetric surveys in this area we show that an additional, submarine landslide here, when simulated with the other coastal slides, and the supershear earthquake mechanism better explains the observations. This supports the need for future marine geology work in this area.

CAUSES OF NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC MASS MOVEMENTS IN GDYNIA

Large group of the natural coastal landslides in the area of Gdynia (Babie Doły, Oksywie and Redłowo) are dominant and cover an area of about 4 ha (i.e. 60% of the area studied). The anthropogenic landslides, on the other hand, are more numerous but not bigger than 0.1 ha and occur within the town area. Cypel Redłowski is the most active cliff of the Bay of Gdańsk. There the erosion causes significant retreat of the coastline. The pace of that backward movement calculated by means of Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS), between years 2010 and 2015 was between 0 to almost 5 metres. During the same time the Cypel Redłowski retreated from 81.45 to 81.55 km, i.e. at a pace of 0.23 metres a year. The pace of retreat in the Cypel Oksywski was even faster in the past. There the active landslides caused total damage of the fortifications built at the beginning of the 19th century. Prevention against landslides caused by the marine erosion has been applied for over a hundred years now. The marine erosion is the most significant trigger of the coastal landslides. The intensity of the erosion depends on the frequency of storms. Heavy rains exceeding 100.0 mm per 24 hours also trigger mass movements in the Gdynia area. Such event took place in Gdynia in 2016. At that time a landslide movement causing extensive damage was recorded.