Pricing and Optimization in Shared Vehicle Systems: An Approximation Framework

The optimal management of shared vehicle systems, such as bike-, scooter-, car-, or ride-sharing, is more challenging compared with traditional resource allocation settings because of the presence of spatial externalities—changes in the demand/supply at any location affect future supply throughout the system within short timescales. These externalities are well captured by steady-state Markovian models, which are therefore widely used to analyze such systems. However, using Markovian models to design pricing and other control policies is computationally difficult because the resulting optimization problems are high dimensional and nonconvex. In our work, we design a framework that provides near-optimal policies, for a range of possible controls, that are based on applying the possible controls to achieve spatial balance on average. The optimality gap of these policies improves as the ratio between supply and the number of locations increases and asymptotically goes to zero.

Neural network aided approximation and parameter inference of non-Markovian models of gene expression

Non-Markovian models of stochastic biochemical kinetics often incorporate explicit time delays to effectively model large numbers of intermediate biochemical processes. Analysis and simulation of these models, as well as the inference of their parameters from data, are fraught with difficulties because the dynamics depends on the system’s history. Here we use an artificial neural network to approximate the time-dependent distributions of non-Markovian models by the solutions of much simpler time-inhomogeneous Markovian models; the approximation does not increase the dimensionality of the model and simultaneously leads to inference of the kinetic parameters. The training of the neural network uses a relatively small set of noisy measurements generated by experimental data or stochastic simulations of the non-Markovian model. We show using a variety of models, where the delays stem from transcriptional processes and feedback control, that the Markovian models learnt by the neural network accurately reflect the stochastic dynamics across parameter space.

Statistical Surveillance of Structural Breaks in Credit Rating Dynamics

The 2007–2008 financial crisis had severe consequences on the global economy and an intriguing question related to the crisis is whether structural breaks in the credit market can be detected. To address this issue, we chose firms’ credit rating transition dynamics as a proxy of the credit market and discuss how statistical process control tools can be used to surveil structural breaks in firms’ rating transition dynamics. After reviewing some commonly used Markovian models for firms’ rating transition dynamics, we present several surveillance rules for detecting changes in generators of firms’ rating migration matrices, including the likelihood ratio rule, the generalized likelihood ratio rule, the extended Shiryaev’s detection rule, and a Bayesian detection rule for piecewise homogeneous Markovian models. The effectiveness of these rules was analyzed on the basis of Monte Carlo simulations. We also provide a real example that used the surveillance rules to analyze and detect structural breaks in the monthly credit rating migration of U.S. firms from January 1986 to February 2017.