Prior Forecasting Accuracy and Investor Reaction to Management Earnings Forecasts

We examine the properties of firms’ forecasting records and whether the accuracy of their prior earnings forecasts affects investor response to their subsequent forecasts. Within the context of a Bayesian model of investor learning, we find that the stock price response to management forecast news is increasing in prior forecast accuracy and also in the length of a firm’s forecasting record. Further, we document that investors are more responsive to extreme good and bad news forecasts when a firm has an established forecasting record. Overall, these results suggest that a firm’s prior forecasting behavior allows it to establish a forecasting reputation, and that market forces encourage accurate forecasting as firms benefit from having a reputation for forecasting accurately.

Colon-rectal Cancer and Lars Management - Forecast of refundability of health services in Apulia in 2019

This article, taken from the ending research thesis of the studies in Business Administration in Pegaso University, derives from the lack of detailed data on colon-rectal cancer in Apulia, in 2019. The clinical, economic and statistical study introduced has given the possibility to examine the neoplasia incidence in Apulia reality, to estimate for the first time the Lars major phenomenon (Low Anterior Resection Syndrome) after a rectum surgical treatment. These goals have been achieved starting from the national data analysis provided by Airtum and Aiom; and operating through benchmarking, among the most virtuous Italian realities, it has been possible to estimate the forecast of refundability of health services generated by the treatment of colon cancers, rectal cancers and of the Lars phenomenon management. We can see the incidence of 2,802 total cases of colon-rectal cancer so divided: 1,920 colon cancer cases and 882 rectal cancer cases. The Lars phenomenon, according to the most recent medical literature, presents 444 cases, considering that 90 % of the 882 rectum tumors will have a surgery; 56% of these develops Lars major. Assuming to treat all cases of Lars major, it would potentially be possible a refundability of 63,492 Euros. While, as regards the refundability obtained from the treatment of the 2,802 colon-rectal cancer total cases, it could be hypothesized a total refundability of 18,897,408 Euros.