STRATEGIC INTERACTIONS AND NEGATIVE OIL PRICES

This paper argues on theoretical grounds that the negative oil prices event on April 20, 2020, was mainly due to the strategic interactions among some active traders on both sides of the futures contract. We present a three-player game of futures trading in which a continuum range of negative price can be supported as (strong) Nash equilibrium, yet none of those constitutes an [Formula: see text]-equilibrium originally developed by Ma (2009). We further propose the notion of coalition-with-side-payment as a solution concept for the environment where strategic interactions and transfer payments among players are allowed. Our model captures the mechanism underlying futures price manipulation, and its predictions largely agree with the observations on that day, which are beyond the scope of demand–supply and physical delivery narratives.

Prices of Anarchy of Selfish 2D Bin Packing Games

We consider a game-theoretical problem called selfish 2-dimensional bin packing game, a generalization of the 1-dimensional case already treated in the literature. In this game, the items to be packed are rectangles, and the bins are unit squares. The game starts with a set of items arbitrarily packed in bins. The cost of an item is defined as the ratio between its area and the total occupied area of the respective bin. Each item is a selfish player that wants to minimize its cost. A migration of an item to another bin is allowed only when its cost is decreased. We show that this game always converges to a Nash equilibrium (a stable packing where no single item can decrease its cost by migrating to another bin). We show that the pure price of anarchy of this game is unbounded, so we address the particular case where all items are squares. We show that the pure price of anarchy of the selfish square packing game is at least [Formula: see text] and at most [Formula: see text]. We also present analogous results for the strong Nash equilibrium (a stable packing where no nonempty set of items can simultaneously migrate to another common bin and decrease the cost of each item in the set). We show that the strong price of anarchy when all items are squares is at least [Formula: see text] and at most [Formula: see text].

Strong and Safe Nash Equilibrium in Some Repeated 3-Player Games

The paper examines an infinitely repeated 3-player extension of the Prisoner’s Dilemma game. We consider a 3-player game in the normal form with incomplete information, in which each player has two actions. We assume that the game is symmetric and repeated infinitely many times. At each stage, players make their choices knowing only the average payoffs from previous stages of all the players. A strategy of a player in the repeated game is a function defined on the convex hull of the set of payoffs. Our aim is to construct a strong Nash equilibrium in the repeated game, i.e. a strategy profile being resistant to deviations by coalitions. Constructed equilibrium strategies are safe, i.e. the non-deviating player payoff is not smaller than the equilibrium payoff in the stage game, and deviating players’ payoffs do not exceed the nondeviating player payoff more than by a positive constant which can be arbitrary small and chosen by the non-deviating player. Our construction is inspired by Smale’s good strategies described in Smale’s paper (1980), where the repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma was considered. In proofs we use arguments based on approachability and strong approachability type results.