Effect of the MJO on East Asian winter rainfall as revealed by an SVD analysis

This paper studies the influences of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on East Asian (EA) winter rainfall using the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) approach. This method uses two-dimensional instead of the latitudinally-averaged variables in the commonly used Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index. A comparison of the two approaches is made using the same OLR and zonal wind data over 37 boreal winter seasons of December – March. The SVD composite reveals a more conspicuous and coherent variation throughout the MJO cycle, while the RMM composite is more ambiguous. In particular, the SVD analysis identifies the convection anomalies over the Maritime Continent and the subtropical western Pacific (MCWP) as a major cause of enhanced rainfall in EA at RMM phases 8 and 1. This is at least one-eighth cycle earlier than the phases of convection development over Indian Ocean (IO) that were emphasized by previous studies. A linearized global baroclinic model is used to demonstrate the mechanism of MJO forcing on EA rainfall during various phases, with a focus on the MCWP cooling. The result shows that the anomalous MCWP cooling and the resultant low-level anticyclonic flow interact with the East Asian Jet, leading to an overall weakened EA winter monsoon circulation. The associated anomalous overturning circulation, with ascending motion and low-level horizonal moisture convergence in EA, contributes to the enhanced rainfall. This model result supports the interpretation of the SVD analysis, in that the MCWP-cooling induced anomalous meridional circulation is a more direct cause of enhanced EA rainfall than the IO-heating (or the IO-MCWP heating dipole) induced Rossby wave teleconnection.

INTERPRETASI SISTEM PANAS BUMI SUWAWA BERDASARKAN DATA GAYA BERAT

The research of gravity on Suwawa Sub-District geothermal is done for the purposes to determine fault structure using Second Vertical Derivative (SVD) technique, create a 2D subsurface model and 3D tentative model using regional anomaly data, and interpreting Suwawa geothermal system. Data processing is done in the research include: drift correction, terrain correction, free air correction, complete Bouguer anomaly, spectral analysis, SVD analysis, 2D modeling and 3D inversion modeling and tentative model. The research results showed that the research area has low Bouguer anomaly with a range of 75.8 to 79.5 mGal values in the West and Southeast, while high anomaly with a range of 90.9 to 111.2 mGal values in the Northern and Southern, there is correlation of fault based on SVD analysis with geological fault that indicate the presence of Libungo hot springs, the inversion results indicate the presence of low density (ρ = 1.8 g/cc) which is an alluvial rocks and high density (ρ = 2.9 g/cc) which is Andesite Lava rocks, 3D tentative modeling indicate the presence of reservoir is at a depth of 2 km from the ground surface. Based on the model created, Cap Rock is located on Andesite Lava rocks with ρ = 2.9 g/cc at a depth of 1200 m and Heat Source located at a depth of 2000 m.