Effect of the MJO on East Asian winter rainfall as revealed by an SVD analysis

This paper studies the influences of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on East Asian (EA) winter rainfall using the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) approach. This method uses two-dimensional instead of the latitudinally-averaged variables in the commonly used Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index. A comparison of the two approaches is made using the same OLR and zonal wind data over 37 boreal winter seasons of December – March. The SVD composite reveals a more conspicuous and coherent variation throughout the MJO cycle, while the RMM composite is more ambiguous. In particular, the SVD analysis identifies the convection anomalies over the Maritime Continent and the subtropical western Pacific (MCWP) as a major cause of enhanced rainfall in EA at RMM phases 8 and 1. This is at least one-eighth cycle earlier than the phases of convection development over Indian Ocean (IO) that were emphasized by previous studies. A linearized global baroclinic model is used to demonstrate the mechanism of MJO forcing on EA rainfall during various phases, with a focus on the MCWP cooling. The result shows that the anomalous MCWP cooling and the resultant low-level anticyclonic flow interact with the East Asian Jet, leading to an overall weakened EA winter monsoon circulation. The associated anomalous overturning circulation, with ascending motion and low-level horizonal moisture convergence in EA, contributes to the enhanced rainfall. This model result supports the interpretation of the SVD analysis, in that the MCWP-cooling induced anomalous meridional circulation is a more direct cause of enhanced EA rainfall than the IO-heating (or the IO-MCWP heating dipole) induced Rossby wave teleconnection.

Modeling rapid Earth rotation variations – where are we going next?

<p>Non-tidal Earth rotation variations at intraseasonal periods are almost exclusively driven by mass redistributions within the atmosphere and ocean. Our capacity to model these signals has advanced over the past decades, but differences between the observed and modeled portions of the planetary angular momentum budget are still as large as 1–5 cm when expressed as axis displacement at the Earth's surface. A likely source for these significant errors is the ocean, poorly sampled with observations and thus not amenable to the sequential data assimilation machinery developed for the atmosphere. Moreover, the recent delineation of basin-wide ocean mass exchanges associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in a high-resolution baroclinic model emphasizes that a revisit of standard forward modeling choices (e.g., grid spacings of ∼100 km) may be in order to better describe rapid, large-scale oceanic mass motions. In this contribution, I provide a brief overview of recent progress in the field and suggest that dynamically consistent model-data syntheses, as practiced by the consortium on Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO), are a viable route to mitigate deficiencies in present oceanic angular momentum (OAM) series on intraseasonal (but also longer) time scales. As ocean state estimates continue to be refined by the central ECCO production, I assess the benefits of higher model resolution with OAM series from an eddy-permitting (1/6°) forward simulation, descending from the current ECCO release in its discrete setup. The resulting mass and motion terms indeed provide smaller Earth rotation residuals than other available OAM estimates, possibly due to the model resolving important topographic interactions and the dynamic response to MJO in the 30–80-day band. However, these improvements come at disproportionally large computational costs, and iteratively fitting an eddy-permitting general circulation model to oceanographic observations may still be prohibitive in the near future. Instead, efforts should be devoted to extending the present coarser-resolution ECCO framework to new data constraints and shorter adjustment intervals. Of particular interest in the context of Earth rotation are non-standard daily GRACE gravity field solutions, which contain realistic information on oceanic mass-field variability below the nominal GRACE Nyquist period of 60 days.</p>

How Does Indian Monsoon Regulate the Northern Hemisphere Stationary Wave Pattern?

The Northern Hemisphere summer climate isstrongly affected by a circumglobal stationary Rossby wave train, which can be manifested by the first EOF mode of the geopotential height at 200 hPa. Interannual variation of this Northern Hemisphere wave (NHW) pattern has a significant impact on remarkably warm surface temperature anomalies over the North Atlantic, Northeast Europe, East Asia to Central-North Pacific, and America, particularly in 2018 and 2010. The NHW pattern is likely generated by atmospheric diabatic heating and vorticity forcing: diabatic heating is mainly confined in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation region, whereas the anti-cyclonic vorticity forcing is distributed in the globe. The ISM is a well-known diabatic heat source; however, the main source of vorticity forcing has not been established. In general, the tropical vorticity anomaly comes from diabatic heating-induced atmospheric waves and randomly generated inherent internal waves. The linear baroclinic model experiment reveals that the NHW pattern can be generated by the westward propagating tropical waves generated by the ISM diabatic heat forcing.

Diversity of the Global Teleconnections Associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation

A recent study has revealed that the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter exhibits diverse propagation patterns that consist of four archetypes: standing MJO, jumping MJO, slow eastward propagating MJO, and fast eastward propagating MJO. This study has explored the diversity of teleconnection associated with these four MJO groups. The results reveal that each MJO group corresponds to distinct global teleconnections, manifested as diverse upper-tropospheric Rossby wave train patterns. Overall, the teleconnections in the fast and slow MJO are similar to those in the canonical MJO constructed by the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices, while the teleconnections in the jumping and standing MJO generally lose similarities to those in the canonical MJO. The causes of this diversity are investigated using a linearized potential vorticity equation. The various MJO tropical heating patterns in different MJO groups are the main cause of the diverse MJO teleconnections, as they induce assorted upper-level divergent flows that act as Rossby-wave sources through advecting the background potential vorticity. The variation of the Asian jet could affect the teleconnections over the Pacific jet exit region, but it plays an insignificant role in causing the diversity of global teleconnections. The numerical investigation with a linear baroclinic model shows that the teleconnections can be interpreted as linear responses to the MJO’s diabatic heating to various degrees for different MJO groups, with the fast and slow MJO having higher linear skill than the jumping and standing MJO. The results have broad implications in the MJO’s tropical–extratropical interactions and the associated impacts on global weather and climate.

MJO Teleconnections over the PNA Region in Climate Models. Part II: Impacts of the MJO and Basic State

In an assessment of 29 global climate models (GCMs), Part I of this study identified biases in boreal winter MJO teleconnections in anomalous 500-hPa geopotential height over the Pacific–North America (PNA) region that are common to many models: an eastward shift, a longer persistence, and a larger amplitude. In Part II, we explore the relationships of the teleconnection metrics developed in Part I with several existing and newly developed MJO and basic state (the mean subtropical westerly jet) metrics. The MJO and basic state diagnostics indicate that the MJO is generally weaker and less coherent and propagates faster in models compared to observations. The mean subtropical jet also exhibits notable biases such as too strong amplitude, excessive eastward extension, or southward shift. The following relationships are found to be robust among the models: 1) models with a faster MJO propagation tend to produce weaker teleconnections; 2) models with a less coherent eastward MJO propagation tend to simulate more persistent MJO teleconnections; 3) models with a stronger westerly jet produce stronger and eastward shifted MJO teleconnections; 4) models with an eastward extended jet produce an eastward shift in MJO teleconnections; and 5) models with a southward shifted jet produce stronger MJO teleconnections. The results are supported by linear baroclinic model experiments. Our results suggest that the larger amplitude and eastward shift biases in GCM MJO teleconnections can be attributed to the biases in the westerly jet, and that the longer persistence bias is likely due to the lack of coherent eastward MJO propagation.

Relationship between Thermodynamic Anomalies in Arabian Sea–Bay of Bangle on Rainy-season Precipitation in Yunnan

<p>This study examines how the thermodynamic anomaly in Arabian Sea (AS)–Bay of Bangle (BOB) relates to Yunnan precipitation in the rainy season. The observational diagnosis basing on data sets of atmospheric circulation reanalysis, precipitation from 124 stations in Yunnan and outgoing longwave radiation indicates that, when the thermodynamic anomaly in the AS–BOB is weaker during rainy-season, an anomalous anticyclone will control the AS–BOB. An anomalous cyclone in Yunnan resulted from the anomalous anticyclone in the AS–BOB induces anomalous water vapor converging with anomalous cold air in the same region. As a result, heavier-than-normal precipitation occurs in Yunnan in rainy-season. When the thermodynamic anomaly in the AS–BOB is stronger, the opposite configuration of anomalous circulation will cause less-than-normal precipitation in Yunnan. The results of several numerical experiments obtained from a linear baroclinic model support the key physical processes revealed in the observational diagnosis.</p>

A mechanism for jet drift over topography

The dynamics of multiple alternating oceanic jets has been studied in the presence of a simple bottom topography with constant slope in the zonal direction. A baroclinic quasi-geostrophic model forced with a horizontally uniform and vertically sheared background flow generates mesoscale eddies and jets that are tilted from the zonal direction and drift with constant speed. The governing dynamical equations are rewritten in a tilted frame of reference moving with the jets, and the cross-jet time-mean profiles of the linear and nonlinear stress terms are analysed. Here, the linear stress terms are present because of the zonally asymmetric topography. It is demonstrated that the linear dynamics controls the drift mechanism. Also, it is found that the drifting jets are directly forced by the imposed vertical shear, whereas the eddies oppose the jets, although this is limited to continuously forced dissipative systems. This role of the eddies is opposite to the one in the classical baroclinic model of stationary, zonally symmetric multiple jets. This is expected to be more generic in the ocean, which is zonally asymmetric nearly everywhere.