Watching Khomeini

The fall of the Shah of Iran is often quoted as a significant intelligence failure, this chapter focuses on Ayatollah Khomeini and the CIA analysis and assessments of this key individual. The chapter provides a potted biography of Khomeini, including his influence whilst in a series of exiles from Iran, whilst also detailing the misguided CIA analysis at the time of the extent of his influence within Iran, and how they evolved over time. The chapter concludes with a short overview of contact US officials had with Khomeini and his key advisers. Document: The Politics of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

Strategic culture and intelligence failure: British intelligence on Japan before the Imphal–Kohima battle, 1943–1944

Despite the common perception that British intelligence succeeded in preventing surprise before the Imphal–Kohima battle, this study shows that British assessment of Japanese intentions before the battle was in fact extremely ambivalent. It argues that the difference between British and Japanese strategic cultures was the key to explain British intelligence failure. Because of the two different strategic cultures, the British could not understand the dynamics of Japanese strategic planning and Japan’s offensive political objective against India. These findings suggest that despite improvement in technology and organization, diverging strategic cultures of different opponents will likely remain a major challenge to future intelligence.