Saudi-Emirati economic competition will mount further

Significance This comes amid a growing divergence between the two countries on oil policy, economic diversification and the conduct of regional affairs, including in Yemen. It forms a strong contrast to the close bilateral coordination seen in 2015-18. Impacts Rising competition will be primarily economic rather than (geo)political, unlike the rift with Qatar in 2017. Discrepancies between the timing of the two crown princes’ accessions in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi may affect ties. Internal UAE tensions could increase if Dubai feels Abu Dhabi is not doing enough to protect its commercial interests. Political leaders in Abu Dhabi may seek benefits through public distancing from reputation-hit Riyadh in Washington’s eyes.

Reverse Causality between Oil Policy and Fiscal Policy?: The Venezuelan Experience

This paper uses a model of intergenerational accounting to simulate the intergenerational distribution of oil wealth in Venezuela. Venezuelan oil production does not seem to follow an optimal extraction path. Nevertheless, this is true if we do not consider what the government does with the resources received from the oil sector. In this paper we explored the interaction of oil policy and fiscal policy using an intergeneration accounting model. We found that these interactions could explain certain outcomes. In particular, the model could explain why the sector was open for investment in 1991 and then “re-nationalized” in 2001. Results suggest that when fiscal policy could leave an important burden to future generations, voters seem to favor a more tax oriented oil policy, leaving the oil in the subsoil.

Reverse Causality between Oil Policy and Fiscal Policy? The Venezuelan Experience

This paper uses a model of intergenerational accounting to simulate the intergenerational distribution of oil wealth in Venezuela. Venezuelan oil production does not seem to follow an optimal extraction path. Nevertheless, this is true if we do not consider what the government does with the resources received from the oil sector. We explored the interaction of oil policy and fiscal policy using such intergenerational accounting model. We argue that the way in which tax revenues (both, those coming from oil and those who do not) are used today can affect voters preferences on how they will be used tomorrow. These interactions could explain certain outcomes. In particular, the model could explain why the sector was open for investment in 1991 and then “re-nationalized” in 2001. Results suggest that when fiscal policy could leave an important burden to future generations, voters seem to favor a more tax-oriented oil policy, leaving the oil in the subsoil.

British Vulnerability and the Conquest of Mesopotamia

This chapter discusses British oil policy before World War I. In the decade before World War I, the British government was becoming increasingly aware of the importance of oil for military power. But few officials anticipated that oil would become so indispensable to war that a country would be unable to prevail in a conflict without it. The chapter then analyzes Britain's choice to pursue a direct-control strategy in late 1918 by invading Mesopotamia. Dire vulnerability, underpinned by a yawning petroleum deficit and Britain's severe susceptibility to blockade as an island nation, spurred the government to accept the high costs and risks of securing oil with this most extreme strategy.