Using surveillance and monitoring data of different origins in aSalmonellasource attribution model: a European Union example with challenges and proposed solutions

SUMMARYMicrobial subtyping approaches are commonly used for source attribution of human salmonellosis. Such methods require data onSalmonellain animals and humans, outbreaks, infection abroad and amounts of food available for consumption. A source attribution model was applied to 24 European countries, requiring special data management to produce a standardized dataset. Salmonellosis data on animals and humans were obtained from datasets provided by the European Food Safety Authority. The amount of food available for consumption was calculated based on production and trade data. Limitations included different types of underreporting, non-participation in prevalence studies, and non-availability of trade data. Cases without travel information were assumed to be domestic; non-subtyped human or animal records were re-identified according to proportions observed in reference datasets; missing trade information was estimated based on previous years. The resulting dataset included data on 24 serovars in humans, broilers, laying hens, pigs and turkeys in 24 countries.

Impediments to trade across the Green Line in Cyprus

Cyprus is a divided island. Despite the lack of a comprehensive peace agreement reunifying the country, in 2004 trade commenced across the Green Line that separates the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities. The volume of trade has grown steadily since, but has it reached its full potential? First, a gravity equation is estimated by using an ‘out-of-sample’ estimation strategy to predict potential trade for the period from 2004 to 2009. We observe a sizable gap between potential and actual volumes of trade. We then attempt to account for this gap by analyzing economic, legal, and social-psychological barriers that can explain this difference. It is found that (1) actual trade has only reached around 10% of its potential, with (2) legal constraints accounting for 35% of the missing trade, (3) extra transportation costs for about 5%, and (4) unmeasurable and social-psychological barriers for a significant amount of between 48% and 60%, depending on the year. The findings suggest that attention must be paid to the objective barriers to trade as well as the subjective interpersonal and intercommunal perceptions that can affect trade and ultimately, peaceful resolution of the conflict. These findings have implications for other conflicts in which divided communities with the potential for trading across a shared border seek to maximize the joint economic and political gains of emerging interdependence.

Wealth as a Determinant of Comparative Advantage

This paper shows that a country’s wealth can be an important determinant of comparative advantage when access to credit differs across sectors of the economy. Wealthier nations exhibit a comparative advantage toward goods produced in sectors facing more severe financial imperfections. These sectors are typically populated by small firms. Empirically this paper documents that these sectors are also labor intensive. Consequently, this theory partially offsets traditional sources of comparative advantage and offers an explanation for Trefler’s missing trade mystery and the Leontief paradox. Furthermore, the theory makes the relation between trade and income distribution endogenous.