Does Money Include Information for Prices in the Euro Area? / Enthält Geld Informationen für die Preisentwicklung im Eurowährungsgebiet?

Summary In this paper, the P-star framework is mainly used to examine the importance of money for future price movements in the euro area. Constructing the equilibrium price level, simple-sum M3 and different Divisia M3 aggregates are considered. In addition, nominal money changes are investigated in inflation equations. Adapting an in-sample analysis, Divisia aggregates are important for HICP development and to some extent for GDP deflator movement. The out-of-sample forecasting exercise presents evidence that simple-sum M3 includes more information for the HICP, whereas one of the Divisia aggregates helps to predict the future GDP deflator.

SEPARABILITY, AGGREGATION, AND EULER EQUATION ESTIMATION

We derive a seminonparametric utility function containing the constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) function as a special case, and we estimate the associated Euler equations with U.S. consumption data. There is strong evidence that the CRRA function is misspecified. The correctly specified function includes lagged effects of durable goods and perhaps nondurable goods, is bounded as required by Arrow's Utility Boundedness Theorem, and has a positive rate of time preference. Constraining sample periods and separability structure to be consistent with the generalized axiom of revealed preference affects estimation results substantially. Using Divisia aggregates instead of the NIPA aggregates also affects results.

The Demand for Simple-sum and Divisia Monetary Aggregates for Pakistan: A Cointegration Approach

Financial liberalisation and the advance of financial innovation in a number of developed economies has been blamed for the break-down in the demand for money based on simple sum measures. This break-down has prompted research into Divisia measures of the demand for money. Like many developing countries, Pakistan is going through a period of financial deregulation which goes hand in hand with financial innovation due to increased competition in the banking industry. This paper employs the methodology of cointegration to compare simple-sum and Divisia level estimates of the demand for money for Pakistan for the period 1974Q4 to 1992Q4. Simple sum measures of M1 and M2 were compared with Divisia versions. The paper reports little evidence in support of the superiority of the Divisia monetary aggregates. Both types of measure produce a stable demand for money and perform satisfactorily in post-sample stability tests, although the Divisia measure appears to perform marginally better on conventional statistical criteria. However, our conclusions have to be qualified by the limitations of the data and the knowledge that the period of financial innovation and deregulation has been relatively recent. The policy significance of the results suggests that currently there is no advantage from switching from simple-sum to Divisia aggregates at the existing level of official aggregation as the proper indicator of monetary policy. However, if financial deregulation and innovation continues at the current pace, the Divisia aggregates may in future prove to be the better indicator.