The interdependence of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in an Emerging economy

This article's main goal is to evaluate the degree of fiscal dominance in Uruguay in 1999-2019 to improve the understanding of economic policy for theoretical reasons and applied needs related to good practices and accountability. Two strategies are followed: one, to quantify the fraction of fiscal expenditures that are financed by monetary liabilities and, the other one, to analyze the effects of fiscal deficit on the price level and inflation because inflationary financing may prevent the central bank from reaching its inflation target. Both situations may subordinate the monetary policy to the fiscal policy, signaling fiscal dominance. In addition, through the analysis performed to assess the degree of fiscal dominance, it is possible to detect the main determining factors of the Uruguayan price level (inflation) formation during the last two decades. So far, preliminary results suggest that inflation is not exclusively a monetary phenomenon and point to some inflationary financing with a mild degree of fiscal dominance.

Evaluation of inflation and unemployment and plotting the Philips curve of the Czech Republic

The Phillips curve was supposed to mean an expansion of the doctrine based on the original regulatory ideas of J. M. Keynes. At the time of its inception (1950s), it gave governments theoretical hope, coming from the possibility of choosing a negative correlation between the price level (P) and the product (Y). Her early denial (at least in the short term) by Milton Friedman, on the other hand, has not changed anything about other applications that are still relevant until present time. In the fact, advantage of Phillips curve is her ability based on broad-spectrum use for any type of national economy. The aim of this work is to determine the shape of the Phillips curve for the Czech Republic in the period from 2000 to the present and to compare its shape with the shape of the original Phillips curve. The method of regression analysis is used here, comparison and prediction are performed using time series. In this paper, we find out what the short-term Phillips curve looks like for the Czech Republic, that it does not coincide with the original Phillips curve, and that in the future we can count on a growing correlation between inflation and unemployment.

Analysis of Recent Rice Price Dynamics in Bangladesh: Causes and Policy Options

Rice availability and affordability are the key determinants of food security in Bangladesh. Therefore, it becomes the most important crop for the social and political economy of the country. Although a tremendous technological advancement contributed to the increasing trend of rice production, its affordability threatened due to the increasing price at the consumers’ level. The recent natural calamities and COVID-19 have worsened the food security status across the world. This research has estimated the demand and supply of rice in the pandemic era and figured out the drivers of recent price hike both in the producers’ and consumers’ levels using empirical and cognitive approaches. Based on the findings, some actionable policy options have been suggested to address the price level of rice in Bangladesh towards sustaining food security.

ANALYSIS OF THE POTENTIAL INCOME OF TOBACCO (Nicotiana tabacum L.) FARMERS IN LIMAPULUH KOTA REGENCY OF WEST SUMATERA PROVINCE

West Sumatra is one of the tobacco producing provinces in Indonesia and the largest producer is Limapuluh Kota Regency. The majority of the population of Limapuluh Kota Regency livelihoods as farmers and one of them is tobacco farmers. The profession of tobacco farmers is often a seasonal profession for the community. Because the price, production and area of tobacco land are fluctuating. This research aims to find out the potential of tobacco farming to farmers' incomes in terms of income when compared to UMP West Sumatra, business feasibility, minimum land area and price. Research methods are survey using questionnaire instruments. The data used is primary and secondary data. Data analysis methods use income analysis, Z test comparison analysis, feasibility analysis, minimum land area and price. The results showed that the analysis of wet and dry tobacco farm income has the potential to provide benefits for farmers indicated by the value of the R/C feasibility analysis > 1. Comparative analysis with UMP West Sumatra using Test Z showed if the H1 hypothesis was accepted. Analysis of land area and minimum selling price shows that land area and price level appropriate to achieve income level in accordance with UMP West Sumatra.

Conflict and satisfaction in distribution channels: Hotel operators' perspectives in Cambodia

<p>This study examines hoteliers’ perceptions of the level of satisfaction and sources of conflict with both traditional and online intermediaries (TI and OI) in Cambodia. It unveils the overall level of satisfaction of hoteliers with intermediaries in Cambodia, discusses the sources of conflict, and assesses whether there are differences in terms of the levels of satisfaction as well as sources of conflict between TI and OI. This study is focussed on the supply side, which is hoteliers. A mixed methods approach is used for this study and 42 hoteliers in Cambodia were interviewed in three different regions in Cambodia: Siem Reap, Phnom Penh, and Sihanoukville. The study found that the overall level of satisfaction of hoteliers with intermediaries is very positive. The overall level of satisfaction of hoteliers with TI such as travel agencies and tour operators is perceived as satisfactory between "Somewhat good" and "Extremely good". Similarly, the overall level of satisfaction of hoteliers with OI such as Booking.com, Expedia, Agoda, and Ctrip is also perceived as satisfactory ranging from "Somewhat good" to "Extremely good". The results also reveal that the most common sources of conflict with TI are price level-related conflict, payment-related conflict, and price-quality ratio-related conflict. The least common sources of conflict for TI were booking details-related conflict, commission-related conflict, and overbooking-related conflict. Likewise, the most frequent sources of conflict with OI are price level-related conflict, overbooking-related conflict, and complaint handling-related conflict and commission-related conflict, booking details-related conflict, and fulfillment of contract conditions-related conflict were the least frequent sources of conflict. Some differences were found for the level of satisfaction and sources of conflict in terms of hotel attributes and respondents' backgrounds. Regarding the level of satisfaction, differences were found in the case of hotel size and hotel age with TI. Concerning the sources of conflict, differences were found in terms of respondents’ nationalities, hotel category, hotel size, and hotel age. It is surprising to note that no statistical differences were found in the case of hotel location, ownership, and respondents’ job titles.</p>

Conflict and satisfaction in distribution channels: Hotel operators' perspectives in Cambodia

<p>This study examines hoteliers’ perceptions of the level of satisfaction and sources of conflict with both traditional and online intermediaries (TI and OI) in Cambodia. It unveils the overall level of satisfaction of hoteliers with intermediaries in Cambodia, discusses the sources of conflict, and assesses whether there are differences in terms of the levels of satisfaction as well as sources of conflict between TI and OI. This study is focussed on the supply side, which is hoteliers. A mixed methods approach is used for this study and 42 hoteliers in Cambodia were interviewed in three different regions in Cambodia: Siem Reap, Phnom Penh, and Sihanoukville. The study found that the overall level of satisfaction of hoteliers with intermediaries is very positive. The overall level of satisfaction of hoteliers with TI such as travel agencies and tour operators is perceived as satisfactory between "Somewhat good" and "Extremely good". Similarly, the overall level of satisfaction of hoteliers with OI such as Booking.com, Expedia, Agoda, and Ctrip is also perceived as satisfactory ranging from "Somewhat good" to "Extremely good". The results also reveal that the most common sources of conflict with TI are price level-related conflict, payment-related conflict, and price-quality ratio-related conflict. The least common sources of conflict for TI were booking details-related conflict, commission-related conflict, and overbooking-related conflict. Likewise, the most frequent sources of conflict with OI are price level-related conflict, overbooking-related conflict, and complaint handling-related conflict and commission-related conflict, booking details-related conflict, and fulfillment of contract conditions-related conflict were the least frequent sources of conflict. Some differences were found for the level of satisfaction and sources of conflict in terms of hotel attributes and respondents' backgrounds. Regarding the level of satisfaction, differences were found in the case of hotel size and hotel age with TI. Concerning the sources of conflict, differences were found in terms of respondents’ nationalities, hotel category, hotel size, and hotel age. It is surprising to note that no statistical differences were found in the case of hotel location, ownership, and respondents’ job titles.</p>

Population Ageing and Price Level in Japan

This paper estimates the cointegration between population ageing and inflation in Japan using the augmented autoregressive distributed lag model. The method provides a complete indication of cointegration and avoids false conclusions from a unit root test. Moreover, the transmission channel from ageing to the price level is investigated using the pairwise Granger causality. Based on the annual data from 1961 to 2018, a cointegration relationship is found, and the deflationary effect of ageing in Japan is confirmed. Additionally, the young dependency ratio inflates the price level in Japan. Lastly, ageing influences the price level via its impact on the labour supply.

SARIMA Model for Forecasting Price Indices Fluctuations

In day-to-day life, the price level fluctuations in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) goods and service. So, the retail consumers are affecting by that price level changes, who are on the demand side of the economy. The main objective of this work is to forecast such selected factors of CPI in urban and rural areas of India, like: Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants, Fuel and Light and Education and also compute the inflation rate for those four main variables in all India.

The Nexus among Competitively Valued Exchange Rates, Price Level, and Growth Performance in the Turkish Economy; New Insight from the Global Value Chains

Currently, global value chains (GVCs) are increasingly shaping the global economy, covering a growing share of international trade, GDP, and employment globally. Global trade is impacted by the emergence of GVCs in areas as diverse as commodities, electronics, and business service outsourcing, among other areas, since the countries involved in the GVCs hold some value(s) and benefit(s) from the exports of the finished product. In this study, the nexus among Competitively Valued Exchange Rates, Price level, and Growth Performance in the Turkish Economy; New insight from the GVCs is investigated using annual data from 1980 to 2020 within the framework of the ARDL bound test, Bayer and Hanck Cointegration (BHC) test, and ECM. The study results revealed that the relationship among real effective exchange rate, exports, and imports induced economic performance and external trade competitiveness particularly when directed at GVCs in both the short and long run. The study recommends that policies enhancing a 10% equilibrium convergence are required annually to competitively minimize the dependence on foreign value-added inputs by importing only world-class inputs for value addition and exports benefits in the competitive GVCs world. Furthermore, monetary policy, GVCs, and economic growth should be investigated.