ARE MARKETS ADAPTIVE? EVIDENCE OF PREDICTABILITY AND MARKET EFFICIENCY OF LODGING/RESORT REITS

We investigate the degree of return predictability of lodging/resort real estate investment trusts (REITs) from January 1994 to May 2016. We test the Martingale hypothesis by using linear (automatic portmanteau and automatic variance ratio with rolling windows) and nonlinear tests (generalized spectral shape tests and Dominguez-Lobato consistent tests). Our findings support the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) and reveal that returns experience periods of both dependence and independence. We document time-varying predictability of lodging/resort REITs with returns as both initially predictable and subsequently unpredictable throughout the majority of the period of analysis. Moreover, we find that if traders use simple technical trading moving average rules, they can capitalize on the inefficiencies of lodging/resort REITs. Finally, we observe that absolute returns and Sharpe ratios of technical moving average rules outperform a simple buy-and-hold strategy.

Testing Martingale Hypothesis Using Variance Ratio Tests: Evidence from High-frequency Data of NCDEX Soya Bean Futures

The aim of the article is to examine the martingale hypothesis of market efficiency on high-frequency data of the soya bean futures traded in National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) of India using multiple variance ratio (VR) tests from February 2015 to August 2015. The study employs high-frequency future prices of 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60 min time intervals mainly to decipher the efficiency of processing information by soya bean traders during intraday sessions of futures trading. The results of VR tests confirm that except prices of 5 and 10 min intervals which displays weak form of market efficiency, all other samples follow martingale hypothesis. The findings suggest that as information gets absorbed promptly in the intraday NCDEX soya bean futures prices, there exists fairly less opportunities to explore any trading strategy for profitable outcomes in the soya bean futures market in India.

Short-term Interest Rates and the State of Liquidity in the Russian Money Market under Conditions of the Global Financial Crisis

During recent years the Russian money market has undergone substantial changes. The period of abundant liquidity was followed by temporary contraction in the end of 2007 and then by rapid deterioration of liquidity conditions in the second half of 2008. This paper provides the analysis of these developments, their causes and consequences. We then proceed by constructing a comprehensive model of the overnight rate on rubles on the Moscow interbank market (MIACR). We use martingale hypothesis to analyze the process of market interest rate determination and identify the liquidity effect. For this purpose we estimate the non-linear EGARCH model and calculate the contribution of different categories of explanatory variables to the interest rates dynamics and volatility. We find that, although volatile, the deviation of interbank overnight rate from BoRs policy rates can largely be explained by liquidity shocks. At the same we find the empirical confirmation of importance of exchange rate and foreign interest rates variables.