The impact of the excess reserves of the banking sector on interest rates and money supply in Poland

In this monograph we aim to analyse the effects of leaving excess reserves in the banking sector by the central bank on the level and the variability of interest rates, as well as on money supply. To this end, we use mainly data for Poland, but in some cases, for robustness, also for a panel of Poland, the euro area, the Czech Republic and Hungary, as there had only been a limited variability in some policy variables in our sample for Poland. We estimate the parameters of GARCH, (P)VAR (vector autoregressive or panel vector autoregressive) and (panel) linear regression models. We find that excess reserves affect the level and the variability of an overnight money market interest rate. However, the variability of the overnight money market interest rate, shaped to a large extent by excess reserves, does not affect the level of longer-term interest rates, and we find little evidence of its impact on their variability. Neither do excess reserves translate into higher money supply. Our results imply that the current monetary policy operational framework in Poland is adequate to ensure the transmission of the central bank policy rate to money market interest rates. Furthermore, it appears unlikely that raising the amount of excess reserves left, as proposed by some policymakers, would affect money supply. Instead, it would lower the money multiplier and the overnight money market interest rate, as well as increase its volatility.

DEMAND FOR MONEY AND HAYEKIAN TRIANGLES

Friedrich August von Hayek (1935) developed a specific business cycle theory in which interactions between the real and monetary sectors play a central role. In the first version of the theory, shocks to the money supply deflect market interest rate from the natural level and thus give false signals to entrepreneurs about relative demand between present goods and future goods. This idea was represented in a simple graphical tool, which was later called the Hayekian triangle. The structure of capital and the production process are depicted in a diagram that maps flows of resources from early stages of production to late stages, and finally to the hands of the consumer. On the basis of this theory, the prelimi- nary recommendation for the monetary authority was to freeze the money supply in order to prevent fluctuations in the structure of production (Hayek 1928).

Research on Stock Return Rate

There is a certain relationship among stock return rate, market return rate and risk-free interest rate, which is worth discussing, and it is helpful for us to analyze stocks and evaluate their prices. I have found that the market return rate and risk-free rate have correlation through multiple regression, and other stock's return rate can affect the target stock to some extent. The stock return rate is positively related to the market interest rate and inversely related to the risk-free interest rate.

FINANCIAL DEEPENING RELATIONSHIP WITH ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA

This article aims to analyze the interaction between financial deepening and economic growth in Indonesia. In this case, it also indirectly analyzes the interaction between the research control variables, namely the interbank money market interest rate and the exchange rate with economic growth in Indonesia. The journal uses secondary data, including taking from the official website of the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia, which is the website of the Republic of Indonesia government. This journal uses an analysis of the interaction between variables in the period 2010-2019. The method used is the VECM method, a method used to explore financing and exchange rates which have a significant negative interaction with economic growth in Indonesia. And the interbank money market interest rate has a significant negative interaction with economic growth in Indonesia. In addition, the financial interior also has directional interactions with the government in Indonesia so that it can be said to follow bidirectional causality.Keywords: Financial Deepening, Economic Growth, VRCM, and bidirectional causality JEL : G320, C320

Actuarial deductions for early retirement

This paper studies how the rates of deduction for early retirement have to be determined in pay-as-you-go (PAYG) systems in order to keep their budget stable. The derivation of these deductions requires the use of a multiperiod intertemporal budget constraint that involves assumptions about the retirement behavior of past, present, and future cohorts. In general, it is not possible to calculate budget-neutral deductions from the budget constraint of a single individual who retires before the target retirement age—an approach that dominates the related literature. Only for specific cases one can use this second approach but then one has to adjust the discount rate to the assumption about collective retirement. If there is only one deviating individual, then the right choice is the market interest rate while for a stationary retirement distribution it is the internal rate of return of the PAYG system. In this case, the necessary deductions are lower than under the standard approach. This is also true for retirement ages that fluctuate randomly around a stationary distribution. Various long-run developments (e.g., increases in life expectancy or permanent changes in the average retirement age) might cause challenges for the sustainability of the pension system. These developments, however, can only be dealt with by adequate adjustments to the basic pension formulas and not by the use of deduction rates.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MARKET INTEREST RATE AND COMMERCIAL BANK FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN BANGLADESH

The banking sector is the strongest partner of development for countries economy as it has a remarkable contribution to the countrys Gross Domestic Product. This study aims to find out the relationship between the market interest rate and commercial banks financial performance. As the banking industry of Bangladesh is a growing industry, therefore, it is very necessary to maintain a stronger level of profitability for the banks financial stability and soundness. Banks have some determinants that have a significant impact on their performance. The convenience sampling method is used to select the targeted sample. The study includes the time series data of eight years of fifteen commercial banks that are listed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange in Bangladesh. Multiple variable linear regression and correlation analysis are performed to find out the relationship of market interest rate with banks profitability with the help of statistical software, SPSS 25, and Microsoft excel. The study explored that the market interest rate has a significant positive impact on banks profitability. It is also found that the lending rate and interest rate spread are significantly correlated with the banks financial performance. The study recommended that banks should make their investment in a way so that they can make a higher level of profit margin that can enhance their efficiency of management as well as the financial soundness.

Investigating the Market Interest Rate on Commercial Banks Financial Performance in Bangladesh

The banking sector is the most vital partner of development for countries' economies. It has a remarkable contribution to the country's Gross Domestic Product. This study investigates the relationship between the market interest rate and commercial banks' financial performance. As Bangladesh's banking industry is growing, it is vital to maintain a more robust profitability level for its financial stability and soundness. Banks have some determinants that have a significant impact on their performance. The convenience sampling method is used to select the targeted sample. The study includes the time series data of eight years of fifteen commercial banks listed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange in Bangladesh. Multiple variable linear regression and correlation analysis are performed to examine the relationship of market interest rate with banks' profitability with statistical software, IBM SPSS version 25, and Microsoft excel. The study explored that the market interest rate has a significant positive impact on banks' profitability. It is also found that the lending rate and interest rate spread are significantly correlated with the banks' financial performance. The study recommended that banks make their investment to make a higher profit margin to enhance their management and financial soundness efficiency.

THE MODEL OF THE BRICS' SHARED INTEREST RATE TO CIRCULATE A DIGITAL CURRENCY

The purpose is to offer an approach to introducing a market interest rate to circulate a digital currency in the BRICS. The topic is time-relevant, since economics today faces difficult challenges posed by questions about price stability, future growth and money market equilibrium. A digital currency is a special issue today due to the outbreak of covid-19, which made many central banks think about contactless means of payment. The author revealed policy tools to circulate a hypothetical digital currency in the BRICS, needed for the pentalateral use. The theoretical significance is to lay the foundation for a model that can be used to set up a virtual regional money market for the BRICS. In practical terms the article recommends a set of policy decisions to overcome the coronavirus crisis of 2020.

Empirical evidence on Non-Performing Loans and credit frictions: banking sector in Tunisia

Purpose: This paper explores the most important determinants of friction in the Tunisian credit market. The previous literature argued that friction is largely explained by the increase in Non-Performing Loans Nkusu, 2011; Abadi et al. 2014; Rulyasri et al.2017, Roland et all, 2013. Research methodology: We constructed a multivariate Vector Error Correction Model, with five macroeconomic variables (industrial production index, the money supply, money market interest rate) to examine the impact of Non-Performing Loans increase in amplifying the Tunisian credit frictions. Results: The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) regression results show a negative and important relationship between economic growth and Non-Performing Loans (NPL) ratio, which is very robust during the political crisis of 2011. The money market interest rate and the money supply are positively related to the Non-Performing loan ratio. Limitation: This study was only focused on Tunisian banking sector as one of the pillars of the Tunisian economy. Contributions: This highlights that the nature of the monetary policy adopted by the monetary authority of Tunisia plays a significant role in the fluctuation of the Non-Performing Loans ratio. Bank capitalization is positively and statistically significant with Non-Performing Loan ratio, implying that banks with a low level of capital are more likely to have a riskier credit portfolio that causes the increase of Non-Performing Loans in their balance sheet.

Banking Market Structure and Cost of Credit in the WAEMU

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the relationship between the structure of the banking market and the cost of credit in the WAEMU. The analysis focuses on WAEMU countries except for Guinea-Bissau due to the lack of sufficiently long series. The study covers the period from 1996 to 2017. Using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) method, we show that the banking market concentration ratio has a double effect on the cost of credit. First, the concentration ratio increases the cost of credit, and second, it decreases the cost of credit after reaching a threshold of 70 percent. Moreover, the results highlight the positive impact of the money market interest rate on the cost of credit. On the other hand, the inflation rate unexpectedly lowers the cost of credit in the WAEMU.