Computed tomography radiomics for the prediction of thymic epithelial tumor histology, TNM stage and myasthenia gravis

Objectives To evaluate CT-derived radiomics for machine learning-based classification of thymic epithelial tumor (TET) stage (TNM classification), histology (WHO classification) and the presence of myasthenia gravis (MG). Methods Patients with histologically confirmed TET in the years 2000–2018 were retrospectively included, excluding patients with incompatible imaging or other tumors. CT scans were reformatted uniformly, gray values were normalized and discretized. Tumors were segmented manually; 15 scans were re-segmented after 2 weeks by two readers. 1316 radiomic features were calculated (pyRadiomics). Features with low intra-/inter-reader agreement (ICC<0.75) were excluded. Repeated nested cross-validation was used for feature selection (Boruta algorithm), model training, and evaluation (out-of-fold predictions). Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) values were calculated to assess feature importance. Results 105 patients undergoing surgery for TET were identified. After applying exclusion criteria, 62 patients (28 female; mean age, 57±14 years; range, 22–82 years) with 34 low-risk TET (LRT; WHO types A/AB/B1), 28 high-risk TET (HRT; WHO B2/B3/C) in early stage (49, TNM stage I-II) or advanced stage (13, TNM III-IV) were included. 14(23%) of the patients had MG. 334(25%) features were excluded after intra-/inter-reader analysis. Discriminatory performance of the random forest classifiers was good for histology(AUC, 87.6%; 95% confidence interval, 76.3–94.3) and TNM stage(AUC, 83.8%; 95%CI, 66.9–93.4) but poor for the prediction of MG (AUC, 63.9%; 95%CI, 44.8–79.5). Conclusions CT-derived radiomic features may be a useful imaging biomarker for TET histology and TNM stage.