Enhancing the Economic Mechanism of Poultry Subcomplex of Regional Agro-industrial Complex in the Conditions of Import Substitution

With international sanctions and the reciprocal food import embargo in place, ensuring food supply by procurement of domestic Russian products can be addressed through the implementation of the import substitution strategy. The Tambov region, with its favourable conditions for many types of agricultural production, plays an important role in ensuring food security. Amid the recent considerable decline in the average per capita nutrition levels, Russia has significant potential for food demand growth provided an increase in real income levels and price stabilisation. This should stimulate growth in production and improved efficiency of the agro-industrial complex. The development of Russian poultry farming can play an important role in it

The welfare effects of coffee price volatility for Ethiopian coffee producers

Purpose This paper aims to estimate the welfare effects for Ethiopian coffee producers from eliminating coffee price volatility. Design/methodology/approach To estimate volatility, the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity technique is applied to monthly coffee prices in Ethiopia for the period 1976-2012. To distinguish between the unpredictable and predictable components of volatility, we obtain separate estimates of the conditional and unconditional variance of the residual. This is combined with estimates of the coefficient of relative risk aversion to measure the welfare effects from eliminating the unpredictable component of price volatility. Findings A key finding is that the welfare gain from eliminating coffee price volatility is small; the gain per producer comes to a meagre US$0.76 in a year. Originality/value This has important policy implications for the efficacy of price stabilisation mechanisms for coffee producers, i.e. any attempt to eliminate coffee price volatility at a cost may not be a preferred outcome for Ethiopian producers. The contribution of the paper lies in using the unconditional variance, as it more truly reflects price risk faced by coffee producers without overestimating it.

Price stabilisation will encourage US shale sector M&A

Significance The current oil industry downturn has not led to the same sort of industry mega-mergers that previous down cycles have produced. However, as oil prices stabilise at 45-50 dollars per barrel and a return to 30-dollar oil looks less likely, the strongest US shale producers are initiating deals that position them to take advantage of the price recovery. Impacts Despite the broader industry downturn, the US shale sector remains an attractive long-term investment for many investors. Large-scale megaprojects are likely to fall out of favour as companies shift spending to smaller short-cycle investments, such as shale. Oilfield service companies will benefit from increased activity as stronger companies buy up weaker drillers.