A New Goodness of Fit Measure Based on Income Inequality Curves

This paper uses inequality-measurement techniques to assess goodness of fit in income distribution models. It exposes the shortcomings of the use of conventional goodness of fit criteria in face of the big income data and proposes a new set of metrics, based on income inequality curves. In this note, we mentioned that the distance between theoretical and empirical inequality curves can be considered as a goodness of fit criterion. We demonstrate certain advantages of this measure over the other general goodness of fit criteria. Unlike other goodness of fit measures, this criterion is bounded. It is 0 in minimum difference and 1 in maximum distance. Furthermore, there is a consistency between this new goodness of fit measure and the other conventional criteria. A simulation study based on fitted distribution to real income data is performed in order to investigate some statistical properties of the new goodness of fit measure. An empirical study and comparisons are also provided.

Effect of exchange rate volatility on Rwandan coffee price and export volumes

The main strategy of Rwanda for having a steady growth in coffee export value and revenues was increased sales of speciality coffee. However, global coffee prices are often volatile and Rwanda has little control over the fluctuating global prices. This paper analysed the effect of exchange rate volatility on the price and exports of Rwanda coffee. In order to respond to this question, the monthly time series data on bilateral Rwanda coffee exports and real effective exchange rates from January 2001 to December 2016 were analysed. The cointegration methods and error correction model using the autoregressive distributed lag procedure andGlosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GJR-GARCH) model were used to analyse the data. The findings showed that the exchange rate volatility resulted in an increase in Rwandan coffee export price in the long run by 1.5% and a decrease in the short run by 0.2%. The findings also showed that the exchange rate volatility affected coffee export volumes in the long run and the short run by 44.4% and 3.8%, respectively. The real income in importing countries increased coffee prices in the long run by 3.0% and coffee export volumes in the long run and the short run by 26.9% and 38.5%, respectively. A review of monetary policy to address the issue of volatility and hedging system adoption in the Rwanda coffee sector should be done in order to stabilize the exchange rate and to consequently avoid its bad effects on coffee price and export volumes.

Stability and Social Sustainability of Farm Household Income in Poland in 2003–2020

This article analyses the available income of farmer households in Poland in 2003–2020 in the context of their level, variability, and differentiation. The income situation of farmers was analysed from the intra-sectoral perspective and the inter-sectoral perspective by comparing the average monthly available income per capita of farmer households to the income of employees and total households. The research aimed to assess the stability of farmers’ incomes against the background of comparative groups and to assess their social sustainability. We understand farmers’ income parity relative to other socio-professional groups and a similar level of intra-sectoral differentiation. The source of empirical materials was the cyclical statistics of the Central Statistical Office prepared as part of the Household Budget Surveys, published in the years 2004–2021. It was found that despite a significant increase in the real income of farmers’ households in Poland over the studied years, the income disparity of farmers relative to other socio-occupational groups persisted. However, the income gap of farmers in relation to workers from the non-agricultural sector decreased from 35.1% in 2003 to an average of 15.7% in 2004–2020, which is largely due to the support for agriculture from the CAP funds. Compared to the analysed groups, the income of farmers’ households is characterised by the most significant instability and greater diversification. These results indicate a persistent deficit in the social sustainability of farmers’ household income in Poland.

METHODICAL ASPECTS OF DEVELOPING TOOLKIT MODELING AND INFORMATION SUPPORT FOR THE FORMATION OF FORECASTS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONS

According to Rosstat for 2020, the population of Russia as a result of its natural movement decreased by 688.7 thousand people. If the birth rate in relation to 2019 decreased by 3.0%, then mortality increased by 17.9%. For many regions of the country (oddly enough, in the first place of its European part), the situation turned out to be even more difficult. At the same time, heterogeneous factors had an impact on each other - a change in the age structure of the population, the COVID-19 pandemic, a decrease in real income, etc. Under these conditions, the problem of obtaining accurate predictive assessments of the situation development in order to develop government policies to improve it is updated. Objectively necessary is the introduction of relevant information systems built on the basis of integrated economic and mathematical models. In this regard, the article discusses the development and application of modern tools for analyzing and predicting the development of territorial systems, including demographic aspects. It is indicated that a significant factor is the development of the social infrastructure of the territory. A system of criteria and indicators are proposed to assess the impact of its level of development on demographic processes. In particular, areas such as health care, education, culture and leisure, housing, trade and services are considered. An approach to the formation of integral indicators in various areas of life of society and an example of developing regression equations based on them is presented. It is noted that in different regions of the country, the degree of influence of the level of development of social infrastructure on demographic processes may differ significantly, which requires accounting within the framework of the model being formed. The possibility and need to build a decision support system based on the obtained model complex and is defined by such a toolkit in the strategic development management system of the region. The key stages of developing tools are described. The results obtained can be used as part of modeling changes in the demographic potential of regions in the context of the transformation of the territorial settlement system.

A Study of Financial Development Impact on Economic Growth: A Comparison Between Egypt and Saudi Arabia

Economic growth is always seen as one of the chief economic goals countries try to achieve, in order to develop its economics. Economic growth takes different forms following the varying economic theories, and it's mostly defined as achieving increase in average share of individual from the real gross national income at certain time period. One of the most frequently used indexes to measure economic growth is: Measuring economic growth based on the expected – no the real – income, especially in countries that possess rich resources. And based on gross domestic product at fixed price and one year, and the average individual share from real income.

Taylor’s rule, political cycle, and Latin America—An analysis of time series in search of responsibility for monetary stabilization

The decades before 1990 were dramatic for Latin American economies. However, from 1990 onwards, a set of policies followed by the various states in the region acheived economic stabilization with real income recovery. The attribution of this success has been disputed by politicians, economists and officials from international economic support institutions. This work will analyze the responsibility for this success in 4 economies in the region (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru). Through the combined analysis of ARDL, Markov states and structural breaks, we highlight different sources of responsibility in different periods. Additionally, detailing the states of each regime, we verify the duration of the regimes related to inflation rates and to interest rates in the region. We identify specific governments as associated with moments of economic stabilization in the region, so the hypothesis of the political cycle cannot be rejected for the set of results achieved. As policy implication, we claim that Taylor rules are endogenous to Political Budget Cycles and so stabilization plans are restricted to political tenures.

Differences in Rent Growth by Income 1985-2019 and Implications for Real Income Inequality

Large and growing income differentials in the US have generated a mounting interest in income inequality among economists. The average income in the highest quintile of households increased by about 70 percent in real terms from 1985 to 2019, whereas the average income of the lowest quintile only increased by 20 percent during this period (Semega et al. 2020).

Optimization of corn commodity Warehouse Receipt System (WRS) in South Sulawesi based on system dynamics

The purpose of this research is to study various factors that influence farmers in using the warehouse receipt system (WRS) and to apply the warehouse receipt system policy scenario in South Sulawesi. The method used is a dynamic system. The simulation results of the actual model type are that the income obtained from the actual (existing) model using WRS is higher than the direct income (selling corn directly) without entering the warehouse (WRS), as well as real income (where 100% of the corn that is produced) entered the warehouse immediately sold at the time without any delay in selling). The ideal type of warehouse receipt system shows the result that there is a difference in income (lost profit/benefit loss) if it does not optimize the existence of the warehouse, in other words, the average annual loss of income is 113.5 billion. The model shows that by delaying the sale, the profit difference (difference in income) is obtained from 38.35 billion to 189.77 billion or an average of 113.5 billion per year. The scenario model was developed with the consideration of optimizing the ideal model, namely optimizing the difference in income obtained from selling delays of 30% with a strategy of increasing agricultural productivity through increasing farmer productivity, which can be done in various ways such as training, socialization, education, institutional Warehouse receipt systems must carry out changes to increase productivity and performance in the field, build strong stakeholder support between local and central government